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Bleacher Report's Expert Week 11 NFL Picks

NFL Staff

Following a strong week of NFL picks with five underdog winners, Bleacher Report's experts looked at the Week 11 games, and they can hear a few dogs barking again. Is it time to fade a couple of the league's best teams?

NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, Kris Knox and Maurice Moton, editor Wes O'Donnell and B/R Betting host of "Winners Only Wednesdays" Greg Ivory all went 8-6 or better for Week 10. For bettors out there, now is the time to ride a hot wave.

Before we jump into Week 11 picks, check out the expert standings with last week’s records in parentheses. Keep an eye on O'Donnell, who's pulled into third place after an exceptionally good week.

T-1. Davenport: 78-67-5 (8-6)

T-1. Moton: 78-67-5 (8-6)

3. O'Donnell: 74-71-5 (12-2)

4. Ivory: 72-73-5 (8-6)

5. Knox: 69-76-5 (9-5)

6. Sobleski: 66-79-5 (8-6)

Consensus picks: 76-61-5 (10-3)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 16, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)

AP Photo/Wade Payne

Editor's Note: Titans defeated the Packers 27-17 on Thursday night.

DraftKings Line: Packers -3

Similar to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who beat the Los Angeles Rams on their final drive in Week 9, the Green Bay Packers may have won a game that can spur a midseason turnaround.

Last week, the Packers topped the Dallas Cowboys 31-28 in overtime at Lambeau Field. With its highest-scoring output of the 2022 campaign, Green Bay had a balanced offensive attack. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns to rookie second-round wideout Christian Watson, who had a breakout performance, and running back Aaron Jones rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown.

Can the Packers sustain that momentum against another top-tier opponent at home? O'Donnell doesn't think so.

"How quickly things can turn, eh? Last week, I went lone wolf with Green Bay while saying 'the Packers are not a good football team right now'. Their upset win over the Cowboys was obviously no surprise to me, but there's nothing they showed that makes me believe they've truly turned things around. They had their week last week, and now I'll ride with the better football team in the Tennessee Titans, especially getting points in a game I think they'll win outright.

"Tennessee's three losses this season are to the Giants, Bills and Chiefs, with two of those games decided by four total points. Yes, this is a short week road game, but oddsmakers must see something very differently with Green Bay than I do."

Predictions

Davenport: Titans

Ivory: Packers

Knox: Packers

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Titans

Sobleski: Titans

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Titans 23, Packers 20

Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

DK Line: Bills -8.5

The Buffalo Bills came into the 2022 season as one of the top Super Bowl favorites. While they still have the best odds (+400) to win the title, the club must weather a midseason storm.

After back-to-back three-point losses with six turnovers in those contests, Buffalo, specifically quarterback Josh Allen, must focus on ball security to get the most out of offensive possessions. Since Week 8, the Bills signal-caller has thrown for three touchdowns and six interceptions and lost one of three fumbles on a botched snap.

With inclement weather in the forecast for the Buffalo area, Knox put on his meteorologist hat when he picked the Cleveland Browns to cover the spread.

"How can I possibly back the Browns after their defense played with as much life as an unmanned-football squad last week? Simply put, this one is all about the line. I don't see Cleveland actually winning here, but I think it can make things closer than many expect.

"Allen is dealing with an elbow injury and has turned into a turnover machine as of late. That's part of the equation. The other piece is a Buffalo run defense that has surrendered 529 yards over the past three games. Cleveland can run the ball, and the weather could be ripe for a ground-oriented game. Cold temperatures, wind and snow are in the Buffalo forecast this weekend, which could lead to a low-scoring and relatively close contest."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Ivory: Browns

Knox: Browns

Moton: Bills

O’Donnell: Browns

Sobleski: Browns

Consensus: Browns +8.5

Score Prediction: Bills 26, Browns 21

Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

DK Line: Giants -3

Over the last two weeks, the Detroit Lions have picked up a couple of division wins in a different fashion. They limited the Green Packers to nine points with three takeaways and then outscored the Chicago Bears 31-30 in an early afternoon Midwest thriller last Sunday.

Most of our experts took the better team in the New York Giants, who get the customary three-point nod for home favorites from oddmakers, though Sobleski chose to stand alone with the Lions, who have impressed him in recent weeks.

“Don't look now, but the Lions are on a two-game winning streak with relatively impressive wins against the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Interestingly, Detroit looked much better defensively during both of those outings. Despite claiming the league's worst defense, the Lions picked off Aaron Rodgers three times and held the Bears offense to 261 yards, if you take out Justin Fields' wizardry when it comes to evading pressure and creating as a runner.

“Granted, Daniel Jones is an athletic quarterback, but his ability to run shouldn't be anywhere near as damaging considering Fields has been historically good as of late. If Detroit slows down running back Saquon Barkley, this game becomes a tossup. After all, Jones' average of 177.3 passing yards per game ranks 29th overall.”

Predictions

Davenport: Giants

Ivory: Giants

Knox: Giants

Moton: Giants

O’Donnell: Giants

Sobleski: Lions

Consensus: Giants -3

Score Prediction: Giants 28, Lions 23

New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (5-4)

AP Photo/Noah K. Murray

DK Line: Patriots -3.5

In three starts against the New England Patriots, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown for two touchdowns and seven interceptions. In order for him to get over the New England hump, he has to take better care of the football, or else, Gang Green can take the ball out of his hands and grind down its division rival with the ground game.

Fortunately for the Jets, newly acquired running back James Robinson made solid contributions on the ground (13 carries for 48 yards) alongside Michael Carter (12 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown) as New York had one of its best showings of the season in the run game two weeks ago.

And for that reason, Knox gives the Jets a chance to pull off a minor upset as they come off their bye.

"Picking against the Patriots here is obviously risky. Under head coach Bill Belichick, New England is 15-7 after a bye week, and New England hasn't lost to New York since the 2015 season. However, every streak has to end, and I think the Jets are in prime position to at least come close to ending a losing streak to the Patriots on Sunday.

"New York got its ground game going (174 yards) two weeks ago in a shocking upset of Buffalo after rushing for only 51 in the first meeting with New England. The Patriots, who allow 4.7 yards per carry, have been susceptible to the run, but New York only rushed 15 times three weeks ago. On paper, the Jets are the better team, and they've also had two weeks to prepare. I see them sticking with the ground game, limiting Zach Wilson's mistakes, making this a tightly contested game and perhaps even pulling off the outright upset.”

Predictions

Davenport: Patriots

Ivory: Jets

Knox: Jets

Moton: Jets

O’Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Jets

Consensus: Jets +3.5

Score Prediction: Jets 24, Patriots 21

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

DK Line: Eagles -7

Following a 25-20 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay felt good about hiring head coach Jeff Saturday, who took over for Frank Reich last week. The Colts have 52 percent of the public money against the spread as of Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET.

Our expert crew chose to pass on a round of Colts Kool-Aid.

Most of the panel went with the Philadelphia Eagles to rebound in a big way after their first loss of the season. If you ask any one of the B/R bettors, they’ll tell you that Saturday’s successful head coaching debut says more about the poor state of the Raiders than it does about the Colts’ chance to turn their season around in unorthodox circumstances.

Moton believes the Eagles can use their first defeat as fuel for a sparkling performance with a defense that can take advantage of an offensive line that's weak in pass protection.

"Perhaps the Eagles needed a loss to wake them up, which doesn’t bode well for the Colts, who can run the ball with Jonathan Taylor but lack reliable pass protection to keep quarterback Matt Ryan clean in the pocket. The Colts signal-caller has taken 25 sacks in eight games—the seventh-most leaguewide. Philadelphia is tied for the fourth-most sacks (29) with the seventh-highest pressure rate (24.6 percent) across the league "

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Ivory: Colts

Knox: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O’Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Eagles

Consensus: Eagles -7

Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Colts 14

Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

DK Line: Ravens -13

Since the Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule after a 37-15 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5, they’ve shown some fight under interim head coach Steve Wilks, going 2-3 with one of those losses in overtime. They’ll look to win consecutive games for the first time this season as a massive road underdog with Baker Mayfield under center in place of PJ Walker (ankle).

Moton acknowledged the Panthers’ competitive spirit, though he didn’t forget their 42-21 blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9.

“The Panthers haven’t given up on the 2022 season under Wilks, and they’re averaging 26.7 points per game over the last three weeks. In Week 9, Mayfield went 14-of-20 passing for 155 yards and two touchdowns in relief of Walker, but he did that in a lopsided loss to the Bengals, who ran through Carolina’s defense for 241 yards and five scores on the ground.

“In that game, running back Joe Mixon had a career day, rushing for 153 yards and four touchdowns. The Baltimore Ravens’ second-ranked ground attack shouldn’t have an issue shredding the Panthers. Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards (if healthy) and Kenyan Drake could run laps around Carolina’s run defense Sunday.”

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Ivory: Panthers

Knox: Panthers

Moton: Ravens

O’Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Panthers

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Ravens 34, Panthers 20

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

DK Line: Falcons -3.5

Right now, Justin Fields is the most dynamic dual-threat quarterback in the league. Over the last three weeks, he’s thrown for seven touchdowns and an interception while racking up 385 yards and four scores on the ground.

Though the Bears defense has regressed, Fields looks like a one-man show, making enough plays with his arm and legs to keep Chicago in high-scoring battles. With that said, Davenport looked at the win-loss column when he went against our consensus to take the Atlanta Falcons.

“Given how it looked last week against a bad Carolina Panthers team, laying a field goal with Atlanta makes about as much sense as an M. Night Shyamalan movie. In fact, maybe they can get Mark Wahlberg to star in a movie about people who lose their minds and make bad picks and call it The Falconsing.

“Kidding aside, for all the hoopla surrounding Fields, the Bears have still dropped three in a row, including a Week 10 loss to the lowly Lions at home. Chicago's 28th-ranked run defense isn't stopping anyone, and while the Falcons are hardly an offensive juggernaut, they can run the ball. That's going to enable Atlanta to control the game's tempo and escape Week 11 with a close cover—or at least that's what the lady living in my pool said.”

Predictions

Davenport: Falcons

Ivory: Bears

Knox: Bears

Moton: Bears

O’Donnell: Bears

Sobleski: Bears

Consensus: Bears +3.5

Score Prediction: Bears 31, Falcons 28

Washington Commanders (5-5) at Houston Texans (1-7-1)

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

DK Line: Commanders -3.5

In Week 10, the Washington Commanders pulled off the biggest upset of the 2022 season, going on the road to knock off the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. As the Commanders come off an emotional high on a short turnaround, they could have a letdown game.

Though Washington looked dominant in a 32-21 victory over one of the league’s best teams, oddsmakers set the line at 3.5 points in favor of the Commanders against the team with the NFL’s worst record.

Commanders head coach Ron Rivera said quarterback Taylor Heinicke will start Sunday. This year, he's 3-1 in the lead role and has stabilized the offense after the unit had some rocky performances with Carson Wentz (finger surgery) under center.

Our panel didn’t think twice about its decision to back Washington, though. Moton thinks the Commanders match up well with the Texans, especially with the potential return of a star defender.

"The Texans have a rookie sensation in running back Dameon Pierce, who’s fifth in rushing with 772 yards, but the Commanders field a decent run defense that’s allowed the third-fewest scores on the ground and ranks 10th in yards allowed per carry (4.4). Furthermore, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Washington is expected to activate Pro Bowl edge-rusher Chase Young (torn ACL and MCL) before Sunday’s game."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Ivory: Commanders

Knox: Commanders

Moton: Commanders

O’Donnell: Commanders

Sobleski: Commanders

Consensus: Commanders -3.5

Score Prediction: Commanders 23, Texans 17

Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-7)

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

DK Line: Saints -4.5

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp will undergo surgery to repair a high ankle sprain, and the team placed him on injured reserve. Without him, the NFC West club loses a significant chunk of its passing attack. The 2021 Offensive Player of the Year has accounted for approximately 38 percent of the team’s receiving yards this season.

While wideouts Allen Robinson II and Van Jefferson along with tight end Tyler Higbee can produce in expanded pass-catching roles, the Rams won’t have a reliable target to carry their 29th-ranked scoring offense that’s racked up the second-fewest yards through 10 weeks.

However, Moton picked the Rams to cover if quarterback Matthew Stafford clears concussion protocol to play Sunday.

“The Rams won’t win many games without Kupp, but if Stafford returns from a one-game absence, Los Angeles can cover the spread against the New Orleans Saints, who haven’t scored more than 13 points in either of their last two games,” he said.

“On Wednesday, Saints head coach Dennis Allen announced that quarterback Andy Dalton will remain the starter (over Jameis Winston). He's thrown for two touchdowns and three interceptions over the last two weeks, which doesn't provide much hope for New Orleans against a decent defensive unit with star playmakers.

“Both teams will probably struggle to score, so bettors should put their money on the stingier (and healthier) defense that features defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Saints defense ranks 25th in scoring and 14th in yards allowed (Rams rank 18th and sixth, respectively), and, last week, Allen said he didn’t have a timetable for four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore’s return.”

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Ivory: Rams

Knox: Rams

Moton: Rams

O’Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Rams

Consensus: Rams +4.5

Score Prediction: Rams 20, Saints 17

Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) at Denver Broncos (3-6)

AP Photo/Wade Payne

DK Line: Broncos -3

The Indianapolis Colts embarrassed the Las Vegas Raiders with an inexperienced head coach in Jeff Saturday who took over the job last Monday. The Silver and Black trailed for most of that contest and took a 25-20 defeat at home. Now, the Raiders hit the road to play the first team that they beat this season.

The Denver Broncos haven’t made any significant strides since their 32-23 loss to the Raiders in Week 4. While the Broncos defense remains stout, allowing the fewest points and the second-fewest yards per game, their offense has recorded the fewest points through 10 weeks. Denver has scored more than 16 points in two out of nine contests.

Moton remembers how the first game between these teams panned out, but he sees this matchup as a good one for Russell Wilson.

“Even though the Raiders beat the Broncos in their first meeting, Wilson had his best outing of the season against Vegas’ defense, which ranks 28th in points and yards allowed per game. In that contest, he registered a season-high 124.9 passer rating and threw for multiple touchdowns, which is something the Broncos signal-caller hasn’t done in any other game in this campaign.

“Through 10 weeks, the Raiders have generated the fourth-lowest pressure rate (16.4 percent), and they field the worst red-zone defense (72.4 percent touchdown rate). Wilson will once again perform at the level of a top-tier quarterback against a defensive unit that cannot stop anyone, and he'll lead his team to a narrow victory that covers the spread."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Ivory: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O’Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Raiders

Consensus: Broncos -3

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Raiders, 20

Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

DK Line: Cowboys -1.5

In Week 10, the Minnesota Vikings beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime—quite possibly the game of the year because of the twists and turns in that contest. Yet the Vikings come home as slight home underdogs in a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, who lost to a struggling Green Bay Packers squad last week.

In reality, this is a tossup game for bettors, but Sobleski senses the disrespect for B/R’s third-best team in its NFL power rankings headed into Week 11, and he’s not having it.

“Talk about a lack of respect. The Vikings are tied for the league's best record. They're hosting Dallas this week. Yet they're still dogs, according to Vegas. Granted, the Cowboys are only 1.5-point favorites, but it's customary to give the home team a three-point advantage when it's a tough contest to call.

“Surely, some are predicting a bit of a letdown after Minnesota's unbelievable win against the Bills. But everyone should be looking at the fact that Dallas allowed rookie Christian Watson to explode on to the scene with four catches for 107 yards and three touchdowns, despite a slow start to the season. Imagine what's going to happen when MVP candidate Justin Jefferson plays the same secondary. Even if Jefferson is slowed to some degree, the Vikings are balanced with one of the league's best backs in Dalvin Cook. By the way, the Cowboys are counted among the four worst run defenses.”

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Ivory: Vikings

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O’Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Vikings

Consensus: Cowboys -1.5

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Vikings 28

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

DK Line: Bengals -4

In Week 10, Pittsburgh Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt (pectoral) rejoined a defensive unit that sorely needed him, and though his box score numbers (four tackles and one quarterback hit) didn’t show it last Sunday, his presence can alter the opposing team’s offensive game plan. The Steelers stifled the New Orleans Saints in a 20-10 win.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is “optimistic” that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendicitis) will be back on the field after he missed the previous contest with the Saints.

With Watt and Fitzpatrick possibly on the field together for the first time since Week 1, don’t read too much into the Steelers’ 30th-ranked pass defense. Moreover, Ja’Marr Chase isn't expected to be back until next week at the earliest, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

Like Week 1, Davenport and Moton expect a close battle with a slight chance that Pittsburgh sweeps the season series. On the flip side, O’Donnell penciled in a revenge game for Cincinnati.

“This one is simple: It's time for the Bengals to avenge their Week 1 loss to the Steelers in emphatic fashion. Watt's return makes the entire Pittsburgh defense better, as we saw last week, and Cincy doesn't have the same offense without Chase; the line makes sense in that regard. This is more of a gut feeling for a Bengals team that has yet to win an AFC North game this season. They do it this week while covering the spread.”

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Ivory: Steelers

Knox: Bengals

Moton: Steelers

O’Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Bengals

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Steelers 21

Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

David Eulitt/Getty Images

DK Line: Chiefs -6.5

In Week 10, the Los Angeles Chargers barely covered a seven-point spread in a 22-16 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. They’ll play in consecutive Sunday Night Football matchups, but this week, head coach Brandon Staley’s group gets a red-hot division rival in the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs field the highest-scoring offense, which is a big step up from the 49ers’ 18th-ranked scoring attack.

Nevertheless, Moton has an explanation for why he took the points with Los Angeles.

“The Chargers could run into an offensive buzzsaw, but they may have some firepower to answer the Chiefs’ aerial attack," he said.

“Staley said wideouts Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) will practice this week. The former has a shaky outlook because he returned to a limited role (32 percent of the snaps) in Week 7, but he said his injury 'got worse' during the Chargers’ Week 8 bye.

“Williams seems to have a fair shot to play. The Chargers didn’t place him on injured reserve after he suffered an ankle injury in Week 7, which would’ve sidelined him for four games. They may have thought he had a chance to come back within three contests.

“Williams had time to recover during a bye week, and he missed the previous two outings. While he’s not a lock to play, his presence on the practice field is an encouraging sign. Even at less than 100 percent, the 6’4”, 218-pound wideout can present some issues for the Chiefs, who have allowed the most passing touchdowns with the 25th-ranked pass defense.

“Even without Allen and Williams, wideouts Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter, tight end Gerald Everett (if healthy) and running back Austin Ekeler can rack up some yards and scores against one of the league’s most generous pass defenses. As for the Chiefs, wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (illness) missed practiced on Wednesday."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Ivory: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chargers

O’Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Chiefs

Consensus: Chiefs -6.5

Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Chargers 26

San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6) in Mexico City

AP Photo/Stacy Bengs

DK Line: 49ers -8

The San Francisco 49ers will square off with the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City for an NFC West Monday Night Football showdown.

This 49ers-Cardinals matchup could lose some sizzle if Kyler Murray misses consecutive outings with a hamstring injury. According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, Arizona may allow its signal-caller another “week or so” to heal from the issue, and the club has confidence in backup quarterback Colt McCoy, who’s 3-1 as a starter under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The latter is day to day with a knee injury.

Davenport doesn’t trust a McCoy-led Cardinals offense, and he has numbers against the spread that influenced his decision to back the 49ers.

“This call is less about confidence in how great the 49ers are and more about lack of confidence in Arizona's ability to stay in this game. The Redbirds were able to down the short-handed Rams with Colt McCoy under center last week, but there's a huge difference between beating John 'Surprised as Anyone That He's an NFL QB' Wolford and getting past a 49ers team replete with talent on both sides of the ball.

“If Murray were 100 percent, then maybe I could see taking the points. But he's not, and this game is going to get away from Arizona. There's also the matter of the two teams' ATS record inside the division as of late—the Cardinals covered just one of their last seven NFC West games, while the 49ers have covered five in a row.”

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Ivory: Cardinals

Knox: Cardinals

Moton: Cardinals

O’Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: Cardinals

Consensus: Cardinals +8

Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Cardinals 21

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