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2022 NBA Re-Draft: Early Do-Overs for 1st-Round Picks

Jonathan Wasserman

Enough games have been played to form first impressions on the 2022 NBA draft class. The question is how the early results would impact teams' second evaluations if they were given a chance to redraft.

While the Chet Holmgren offseason injury was disappointing, many rookies have exceeded initial expectations, and they've done so in convincing fashion, from summer league and preseason to the first month of NBA action.

Right off the bat, the No. 2 pick in a redraft now seems extra interesting after Holmgren went down, as a number of other top-10 picks have outperformed their draft slots.

And in a redraft, one change can have a massive domino effect.

1. Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero, PF

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The Orlando Magic should be feeling good about their 2022 draft evaluation. Paolo Banchero is a top-20 NBA scorer coming off consecutive performances with at least 30 points.

The fact that he's averaging 23.5 points without shooting well from three (25.6 percent) can actually be seen a positive, since it highlights even more room to improve.

Meanwhile, the ability to navigate off the dribble has carried over and given Banchero an immediate creation advantage against set defenses. And at 6'10", 250 pounds, he's shooting 60.4 percent inside 10 feet, looking more like an established pro (physically) than a rookie.

The combination of off-the-dribble skill and passing IQ has also translated to 3.6 assists per game, and it's that point-forward playmaking that could separate Banchero even further from most NBA bigs.

Already comfortable pulling up and shooting off the bounce, the No. 1 pick looks like one of the league's tougher covers from the 4 position. The likelihood that he eventually improves his three-point shooting suggests Orlando just drafted a perennial All-Star to its frontcourt.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren, PF/C

AP Photo/David Becker, File

A fluky foot injury cost Chet Holmgren the 2022-23 season, but it doesn't change his long-term outlook, and it wouldn't alter the Oklahoma City Thunder's thinking in a re-draft.

Stepping on a foot during a pro-am game shouldn't hint at durability questions worth worrying about.

Holmgren looked as advertised in summer league and even flashed more potential as a self-creator and scorer with fluid, off-the-dribble offense.

Otherwise, given his size, 7'5" wingspan, obvious instincts and stroke, his elite finishing, three-point shooting and special defensive impact seem sure to translate. It's impossible to evaluate Oklahoma City's roster until we see Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have a target and rim protector like Holmgren.

3. Houston Rockets: Jabari Smith Jr., PF

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An inefficient first 11 games wouldn't be enough for the Houston Rockets to move on from Jabari Smith Jr.

The ups right now outweigh the downs, with the 19-year-old drilling 1.8 threes per game. His 29.4 three-point percentage is bound to rise based on his track record of shooting dating back to high school, plus a stroke that's clearly built for NBA range.

He's taken more threes than twos, which is a reflection of both more confidence in his jumper and the fact he does lack explosiveness off the dribble and at the rim.

Despite early-season struggles, Smith remains on track to be a valued, three-and-D forward who also has scoring upside with his ability to rise up and shot-make over anyone.

4. Sacramento Kings: Bennedict Mathurin, Wing

AP Photo/Doug McSchooler

Averaging 20.4 points in just 28.0 minutes a game, Bennedict Mathurin has looked unusually comfortable scoring for a 20-year-old rookie wing.

Recent top picks Anthony Edwards, Jalen Green and Cade Cunningham didn't get off to the kind of start that Mathurin has. All of his strengths have translated quickly—physical tools and explosion for finishing plus shot-making ability/versatility.

That 43.7 three-point percentage seems bound to fall at some point, but an impressive NBA body, history of plus shooting, early consistency/efficiency (46.0 percent FG) and the eye test all say to buy Mathurin's start as legitimate.

Even a worst-case outcome—where he winds up too streaky with his jumper and decision-making—still projects a top transition weapon with takeover capabilities.

5. Detroit Pistons: Jaden Ivey, PG/SG

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The Detroit Pistons would get their original wish with Jaden Ivey in a redraft.

He's averaging 15.4 points without shooting well, which shows how effective his burst and explosion are for slicing through defenses and finishing. Ivey is hitting gaps quickly and converting at the rim with hang time, mid-air adjustments and off-hand layups.

Ivey looks like a future 20-point-per-game scorer, assuming his shot-making improves over the next few seasons. In the meantime, he'll continue to eat off transition opportunities, secondary breaks, good spacing and dribble handoffs.

The Pistons are feeding Cade Cunningham most of the ball screens, but Ivey has flashed playmaking instincts (3.8 assists) when put in a position to make a read off the dribble.

6. Indiana Pacers: Keegan Murray, SF/PF

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Keegan Murray would fall to No. 6 because of Bennedict Mathurin's play along with the Detroit Pistons' presumed excitement about a Cade Cunningham-Jaden Ivey backcourt.

Murray looks like excellent value at No. 6 based on the comfort level he's flashed from deep as well as his off-ball cutting baskets, defensive promise and flashes of capable one-on-one scoring in space.

He's already answered enough predraft questions about his shooting legitimacy, defensive position and whether he'll be able to get himself quality looks without blow-by burst or the fanciest creation package.

Well-rounded and an easy fit for any lineup, Murray feels like a steal outside any top five.

7. Portland Trail Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe, SG

AP Photo/Matt York

With Shaedon Sharpe, Dyson Daniels, Jeremy Sochan and Jalen Duren on the board, the Portland Trail Blazers would stick with their original selecltion.

Having played zero games at Kentucky and gotten hurt early in summer league, expectations for his rookie season were tempered. But Sharpe has emerged as a useful offensive weapon right away, with his shot-making and bounce immediately translating to threes, quick-dribble jumpers and finishes off transition and cuts.

He's managed to blend in and score without taking too many dribbles or making mistakes.

Eventually, Sharpe will have an opportunity to build on his one-on-one skills and become more of featured, Zach LaVine type.

8. New Orleans Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, PG/SG

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

No rookie at No. 8 would crack the New Orleans Pelicans' 2022-23 rotation, so it's still all about long-term upside. This front office would redraft Dyson Daniels, whose two-way versatility and room to improve at 19 years old remain huge selling points for this roster.

New Orleans will be able to use Daniels in different roles at different positions, as his 6'6" size, playmaking, improving shooting and defensive versatility create an adaptable, interchangeable game.

Already with three All-Star-caliber scorers, the Pelicans will value Daniels' connector skill set and defense.

9. San Antonio Spurs: Jalen Duren, C

AP Photo/Doug McSchooler

Turning 19 years old this month, Jalen Duren has already had stretches of physical dominance.

Jeremy Sochan has looked promising for the San Antonio Spurs, but between Duren's power and leaping ability, there is a path toward becoming one of the game's most impactful rim protectors and play finishers. And that's without any skill development.

Flashes of back-to-the-basket footwork and passing suggest he can eventually be used to make plays out of the post.

10. Washington Wizards: Tari Eason, PF

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

Tari Eason would make more money in a redraft after his summer league and NBA start.

Per 36 minutes, he's averaging 17.0 points. 10.2 boards, 2.8 steals and 1.2 blocks, putting pressure on opponents with his transition game and defense.

He's still rough around the edges in terms of creation execution and shot-making, but Eason's versatility can impact games in different ways, with his ability to attack, bring physicality inside, initiate breaks, force turnovers and play-make defensively.

And even though the early 45.5 three-point percentage is unsustainable, he's clearly a future threat from behind the arc.

Nos. 11-20

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11. Oklahoma City Thunder: AJ Griffin, SF

A 44.7 percent three-point shooter at Duke, Griffin is 9-of-22 from distance to start his pro career, and his best performance was a 24-point game in a win over the Milwaukee Bucks. A lack of explosiveness may limit Griffin's ability to regularly reach the basket or earn free throws, but his perimeter skills are highly advanced in terms of shot prep, range and balance getting into pull-ups. Griffin appears poised to contribute as an efficient, off-ball scorer by finishing plays with his excellent jump shot or physical tools inside.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jeremy Sochan, PF

The poor three-point shooting to start should have been expected, but Sochan has otherwise been an effective play finisher and active defender. He's looking the part of a role player who'll impact games with hustle, passes and defense over scoring production.

13. Detroit Pistons: Jalen Williams, SG/SF

From Santa Clara to the NBA combine, summer league, preseason and now the regular season, Williams has consistently scored efficiently. There appears to be a high floor and level of certainty tied to his versatility and a body suited for finishing,

14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Ousmane Dieng, SG/SF

Dieng's inefficiency can be easy to look past with the 6'9" wing delivering promising flashes of playmaking, shot-making and defense. His long-term potential remains enticing, and enough evidence of functional versatility so far suggests he's on the right developmental track.

15. Charlotte Hornets: Walker Kessler, C

Mark Williams hasn't received a fair shot yet, but Kessler has been too convincing for the surprising Utah Jazz. Despite limited athletic ability, his outstanding defensive instincts and tools have translated to 4.1 blocks per 36 minutes, and he's finishing at a strong 74.3 percent clip early.

16. Atlanta Hawks: MarJon Beauchamp, SF

Beauchamp has already been a factor defensively, and he's recently coming off making five threes against the Thunder. He's looking like a surefire three-and-D wing capable of playing spot-up minutes early.

17. Houston Rockets: Mark Williams, C

With Eason off the board, Williams is a worthwhile pick in the teens for the high likelihood that his body, size and length translate to finishing and rim protection.

18. Chicago Bulls: Ochai Agbaji, SG/SF

Agbaji's services haven't been needed yet, but it's still clear what he'll bring to the table when it's his time. His shooting and athletic finishing will come alive at some point.

19. Memphis Grizzlies: Jake LaRavia, SF/PF

The Grizzlies targeted LaRavia in a trade on draft night, and they'd presumably go after him again after his promising start. He's 13-of-25 from three, an encouraging sign for a forward who made fewer than one triple per game at Wake Forest.

20. San Antonio Spurs: Malaki Branham, SG

Though Branham's shooting hasn't been there for him early, he was at least 40 percent from three in college, summer league and preseason. The shot-making will eventually come around to complement his timing/instincts and result in a well-rounded, three-level scoring guard.

Nos. 21-30

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21. Denver Nuggets: Christian Braun, SG/SF

Denver looks like a favorable spot for Braun, who can play an energizer role with his transition offense, fearless attacking and defensive activity. After a rough summer league shooting threes, he's looked more comfortable through 10 NBA games with five makes on 14 attempts.

22. Utah Jazz: Dalen Terry, PG/SG

An out-of-the-box, positionless player, Terry needs the right role that values his passing and defense and doesn't ask for much creation or shooting. The Jazz could see a glue guy for a rotation that suddenly has some dangerous scoring threats.

23. Memphis Grizzlies: Johnny Davis, SG

Davis has struggled in every setting since being drafted, as questions about his separation ability and three-point shooting have surfaced. It's too early to write him off, however, and even if the three-level, volume scoring doesn't translate, he should still be capable of contributing by attacking the rim, defending with energy and streak shot-making.

24. Milwaukee Bucks: Christian Koloko, C

Originally a second-round pick, Koloko has emerged as a rookie rotation player for his rim protection. Already with a six-block game against the Bulls and a three-block effort against the Hawks, Koloko is looking like an energy, defensive specialist at the minimum.

25. San Antonio Spurs: Jabari Walker, PF

The draft's second-to-last pick, Walker has a first-round case for a November redraft, as he's been effective with his shooting and energy in every setting since leaving Colorado.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Andrew Nembhard, PG

Shooting 37.5 percent from three with 34 assists to 11 turnovers, Nembhard has looked like a serviceable backup point guard early. Even if there isn't a great deal of upside, he looks like a surefire rotational contributor with his pick-and-roll decision-making and improved jumper.

27. Miami Heat: Nikola Jović, SF/PF

Jović hasn't had a real opportunity yet during the regular season, but flashes of shoot-dribble-pass versatility in summer league and preseason should be enough for Miami to redraft the 19-year-old forward.

28. Golden State Warriors: Patrick Baldwin Jr., PF

Baldwin seems like too strong of a fit for a Warriors team that will just ask him to stretch the floor and catch-and-shoot from the frontcourt. Questions about his creation and ability to separate around the rim aren't as important with the Warriors.

29. Houston Rockets: Blake Wesley, SG

Wesley still feels like a wild card, given the upside tied to his tools, athleticism and skill set, and the raw, unpolished offense that often shows on wild layup attempts and missed jumpers. For a 19-year-old, it's still worth gambling on the flashes of shot-making, playmaking and athletic finishes becoming more consistent.

30. Denver Nuggets: Bryce McGowens, SG

McGowens looks the part of an NBA wing scorer at 6'6" with slashing and shot-making skill. He was one of the more productive rookies in summer league, and in his first pro game over five minutes, he scored 12 points off the bench against the Grizzlies.

Stats up to date entering Friday's games.

   

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