Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

Predicting NBA's Highest-Scoring Duos This Season

Grant Hughes

What's better than having one guy on an NBA roster who can get buckets?

Yep, you guessed it: having two.

Even if the regular season is often a dress rehearsal for the playoffs from a defensive game-planning perspective, most teams can patch together basic schemes to limit a single scorer. But if an offense has a second top-line threat who can take advantage of all the attention being paid to his teammate, it thwarts those "let anyone but him beat us" tactics.

The very best teams need multiple threats to keep defenses honest. And if those offensive weapons share the load relatively equally and operate in complementary fashion, all the better. Or all the worse for the opposition.

Here, we'll take a crack at forecasting which pairs of teammates will finish the 2022-23 season with the highest combined scoring averages. We'll base our guesses on what those duos did last year, what they've done so far and what they might do from a scoring standpoint as the season unfolds. We're mostly passing over situations where one great individual scorer is good enough to carry a less productive second option in favor of those where the load-sharing is closer to equal.

Teamwork makes the dream work.

Honorable Mentions

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets

Kevin Durant (31.0 points per game) and Kyrie Irving (26.9) would top this list if not for all the uncertainty surrounding their partnership. With Irving currently serving what will be at least a five-game suspension and no clarity on what'll come after it, we have to acknowledge the chance that he and Durant won't even be teammates by season's end.

If they were to stay together and produce at last year's levels (NBA-best 57.3 combined points per game), they'd deserve the No. 1 spot. No tandem has more objective scoring talent than this one.

Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers

At present, Donovan Mitchell (31.2 points per game) and Darius Garland (19.0) are in rare air as one of a handful of teammates combining to average over 50.0 points per game. That figure is essentially a cutoff for entry into the top five, but the Cavs backcourt will have to settle for a spot here because Mitchell is playing a little over his head. He's 4.8 points per game above his previous career high, and he's unlikely to sustain his current league lead at 39.2 minutes per game.

Nobody has averaged over 39.0 minutes per game in the last decade, so Mitchell's playing time and scoring volume are bound to decrease. He ran those numbers up largely with Garland out for six of the Cavs' first eight games. Even an uptick in scoring from Garland, who averaged 21.7 points per game in 2021-22 won't offset that.

None of this detracts from Mitchell's legitimate MVP case to this point, but we're projecting to the end of the season and he's not going to keep up his current scoring pace.

DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls

If DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine enjoy a dual scoring surge that puts them back at last year's levels, when the former averaged 27.9 points per game and the latter was at 24.4, relegating them to honorable mention will go down as a grave affront. Unfortunately for their placement here (and the Bulls as a team), it's hard to imagine them reaching those heights again.

DeRozan stunned everyone with a career year in 2021-22, and it's just not wise to bank on him matching that effort in his age-33 season. He's still one of the best pure scorers and mid-range technicians around, but DeRozan's scoring average is down to 23.8 points per game from last year's stellar figure. LaVine could pick up some of that slack, but he's finishing at the rim less efficiently than at any point in his career, a concern for a guy who used to be one of the most electrifying athletes in the league—especially coming off knee surgery. He's currently averaging 21.9 points per game, his lowest figure since 2017-18, and isn't yet playing both ends of back-to-back sets. It could be tough for him to catch a rhythm until he's back to nightly staple status.

No defense will be glad to face these two, but significant pullback from last year's combined 52.3 points per game feels inevitable.

The One-Man-Show Exclusions

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

It's admittedly a little arbitrary, but it seems unfair to consider duos for the top five spots unless both parties are going to comfortably crack the 20-points-per-game mark. For example, when James Harden led the league in scoring at 36.1 points per game in 2018-19, nobody considered him and Clint Capela, the Houston Rockets' second-leading scorer at 16.6 points per game, a high-scoring duo.

Luka Dončić and Christian Wood, Dallas Mavericks

Luka Dončić currently leads the league at 36.0 points per game and might actually sustain that number because he, yet again, doesn't have a teammate who deserves to eat into his sky-high usage on offense.

Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie currently average a matching 15.6 points per game, and there's no indication either is going to nudge up toward that magical 20.0 mark.

Dallas, more than any other team in the league, remains a true one-man show.

Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, Golden State Warriors

We've got a closer case here than with Dončić's Mavs, but it still doesn't seem right to say any of Golden State's secondary scorers are technically part of a duo with Stephen Curry, who's on pace to set a new career high with 32.6 points per game.

Klay Thompson was once a no-brainer Curry counterpart in an exercise like this, and he did average 20.4 points per game last year. But Thompson has struggled mightily to create space and is forcing shots at uncomfortable levels so far this season. He may settle in above his current 15.1 points per game, but, understandably, he's not the same player he was prior to two devastating leg injuries.

Andrew Wiggins is the Warriors' second-leading scorer at 18.2 points per game this year, but the days of him routinely putting up totals in the 20s disappeared when he left Minnesota (and became a much better overall player, ironically).

Jordan Poole is pressing, trying desperately to prove he can prop up second units on his own. The results have been among the most disappointing in the league so far. He's posting a 40.6/30.1/80.5 shooting split that makes last year's 18.5 points per game feel unattainable unless something drastic changes.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo may very well hold steady at 31.8 points per game. That figure isn't too far above last year's 29.9 to feel like an outlier, and he's now getting to the line for a career-best 12.3 free-throw attempts per game. But with Khris Middleton (20.1 points per game in 2021-22) still sidelined following surgery on his left wrist and a likely candidate for kid-gloves treatment when he returns, the Bucks don't quite fit the profile we're going for.

Jrue Holiday is at 19.6 points per game this season, which is the most he's ever managed for the Bucks. That number should come down when Middleton returns.

It might not be quite right to call the Bucks a one-man show because Holiday and Middleton are both such quality scorers in their own right. But maybe that just means Milwaukee is more of a trio. Either way, the duo label doesn't fit.

5. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, Atlanta Hawks

Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images

Trae Young (28.2) and Dejounte Murray (22.3) are a hair over the combined 50.0-points-per-game mark we need to see for inclusion here, and there's a case to be made that they still have as much scoring upside as any tandem in the league.

Most of that applies to Young, who's right on last year's scoring pace (28.4 points per game), despite massive early-season struggles in the efficiency department. The two-time All-Star is currently hitting just 38.0 percent of his attempts from the field and 30.6 percent of his long-range tries, way down from 46.0 and 38.2 percent last year, respectively. He's getting twice as many catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game as he did last year, and he's bound to bump his accuracy on those shots up from an incomprehensibly low 26.3 percent. He was at 48.1 percent in 2021-22.

He's also gone from being an elite mid-range shooter in 2021-22 to a below-average one for his position this season. That'll correct itself as well.

Young's volume hasn't been hurt by Murray's presence. In fact, he's getting up a career-high 23.4 attempts per 36 minutes. Combined with a career-best 9.5 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes, Young's scoring process is as good as it's ever been. Once his percentages regress to the mean, he's going to find himself above 30.0 points per game with little trouble.

Murray is posting 22.3 points per contest, which is only a touch above last year's 21.1 and seems totally sustainable given his uptick in three-point shooting. Once a total non-threat from deep, Murray has made 23 triples (at a 35.9 percent clip) in his first 10 games of the season. His previous high in makes for a full year was only 96.

Lastly, both guards are adjusting to life with another high-usage backcourt teammate. That they've been this productive so far only points to improvement as they get more comfortable together.

4. Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers

Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Perhaps Damian Lillard's 29.0 points per game seems surprisingly high after the way he looked in 2021-22's injury-shortened effort. Dame managed just 24.0 points per game last season before shutting it down and undergoing abdominal surgery, which, along with the aging curve, might have dampened expectations.

Let's never forget that Lillard is as lethal of a scorer as there is in the league. He put up 30.0 and 28.8 in his last two healthy campaigns, so what he's doing now is completely on-brand and legitimate. He is essentially the same player who averaged the second-most points per game in the league (27.6) in a half-decade span from 2016-17 to 2020-21, making All-Star teams in four of those five seasons.

The difference, and the factor that weighs heavily in this exercise, is Lillard's teammate.

I mean, have you seen Anfernee Simons shoot the ball?

Granted, Simons is only hitting 36.6 percent of his 10.3 long-range tries per game right now. But it's hard to find anyone with a prettier stroke, and nobody has gone on a heater this season like he did against the Denver Nuggets on Oct. 24. That seven-triple surge, including a clean 6-of-6 during one third-quarter run, deservedly caught the attention of everyone in the league.

Simons is averaging 22.4 points per game despite falling well short of his accuracy marks from deep, 42.6 and 40.5 percent, in his last two seasons. If he comes closer to his previous hit rates and continues to figure out how to use his athleticism to score inside and draw fouls, he could creep up above 25 points per game without issue.

3. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers

Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Durability will always be a concern, but Joel Embiid's scoring numbers should trend up from the 28.0 points per game he's currently averaging if he simply picks the low-hanging fruit.

For starters, Embiid is at just 29.2 percent from distance after making at least 37.0 percent of his treys in each of the last two seasons. If he levels out from long range and gets his free-throw rate back to normal, the two-time MVP runner-up has an easy path to a scoring average well above 30.0 points per game.

That last element, the free-throw shooting, is the safest bet to improve. Embiid is getting to the line 10.0 times per 36 minutes, which would be a terrific rate for a mere mortal. For him, it's the lowest frequency since 2017-18. You'd also have to imagine that once James Harden is healthy and back on the floor, more reps between the two should only juice what was already the league's most effective pick-and-roll tandem.

It should be noted that Embiid and Harden warrant consideration here. But with Tyrese Maxey currently outscoring Harden by 1.6 points per game and the three-time scoring champ settling into his post-prime years as more of a facilitator, the Sixers' young guard is the logical pick.

Maxey's minutes should come down from the 38.1 he's currently averaging, but any decline in volume should balance out with better efficiency. The 22-year-old is shooting it well at 46.5 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from beyond the arc, but both of those numbers are below last year's levels. His current pace of 23.6 points per game feels like a floor, particularly with Harden out for another few weeks.

Maxey has also added some foul-baiting craft, which is almost unfair for a player whose raw speed puts defenders in compromised positions on its own. He's getting to the free-throw line 4.5 times per 36 minutes, bettering last year's rate of 3.3 attempts.

The best part about Maxey's scoring profile is how little control defenders have over the most dangerous part of it. Maybe as scouting improves and Maxey's tendencies in the half court become better known, he'll find it tougher to score against a set defense. But nobody has solved him in the open floor, where he ranks in the 99th percentile in transition scoring efficiency at 1.7 points per play.

It's pretty easy to score when you can just outrun everyone to the bucket.

2. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies

Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images

There's no good way to defend the version of Ja Morant who makes nearly half his threes. Opponents' best bet would be to trap him high on the floor and get the ball out of his hands, which would trigger an advantage situation likely to result in an open Desmond Bane three.

That's a lose-lose proposition if ever there was one.

Obviously, Morant can't continue to scorch the nets from deep at a 45.7 percent clip. But if he settles in around the high 30s, he'll still be an unstoppable offensive force. As is the case for many young scorers on the rise, he's developing tricks (and earning respect) that make piling up points easier when his shot isn't falling. His 28.5 points per game in only 32.1 minutes is as much a product of improved foul-drawing as Morant's terrifying growth as an outside shooter. So far this season, Morant is getting to the stripe a career-high 8.9 times per game. Give him another minute or two per game, and he could be one of the very rare point guards in league history to make 10 foul-line trips per night.

Though the interplay between the two Memphis Grizzlies guards benefits Bane, a devastatingly effective spot-up shooter, we can't overlook the self-sufficiency both possess. Morant, of course, is the most dynamic and creative ball-handler in the league. His shot-generating prowess is as breathtaking to watch as it is effective, and nobody underrates it. Bane, though, deserves more credit for the ability to cash in without help.

Stephen Curry and Donovan Mitchell are the only players making more than Bane's 2.5 pull-up threes per game, and Bane trails Mitchell (52.2 percent) by the thinnest of margins in accuracy rate at 52.1 percent. Morant makes the Grizzlies go, but Bane can absolutely score on his own.

Like Morant, Bane is getting to the foul line more often, doubling last year's rate of 2.5 attempts per 36 minutes to an even 5.0. He's also second on the team in drives per contest, and he's shooting 50.0 percent on such plays, ahead of Morant's 44.7 percent clip.

Bane's 24.0 points per game is a big jump from last season's 18.2, but the explanation is pretty simple: He's just significantly better now than he used to be. He and Morant combined to post 45.6 points per game last season, and they might eclipse that figure by 10 points this time around.

1. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Jayson Tatum used to have holes in his offensive game. His transition scoring bag was shallow, and he'd reliably resort to throwing out an off arm to create space, often drawing an offensive foul for his trouble. Opponents could also have success top-locking him to prevent touches, and when Tatum's outside shot wasn't falling, he didn't quite have the finishing package necessary to generate points closer to the rim or at the foul line.

That's over now. In his sixth season, Tatum is among the most complete offensive threats in the league.

His 31.2 points per game continues a trend of rising scoring numbers in each year of his career, and he's accumulated that average with more three-point and free-throw attempts than ever before. Tatum's mid-range package, which many viewed as his signature skill coming out of Duke, is intact. Now, he's also supplementing it with higher-efficiency looks and a wider variety of counters to defensive schemes.

From Jay King of The Athletic:

"When Tatum shot 5-for-17 on jump shots early in his career, he almost always had an ugly game. Not anymore. He did that Monday against the Grizzlies but still finished with 39 points on 12-for-25 shooting. He earned 16 free-throw attempts. He shot 7-for-8 at the rim. He manufactured a great game for himself on a night when the outside shots wouldn’t fall."

Tatum is finishing a career-best 79.6 percent of his shots inside three feet, a driver of his highest-ever points-per-shot-attempt rate. He ranks in the 82nd percentile at his position in that stat. That's an absurd number for a player with a usage rate as high as Tatum's 30.7 percent.

Anytime a scoring average climbs north of 30.0 points per game, you look for signs of unsustainability. With Tatum, they're exceedingly hard to find.

Ever the second fiddle, Jaylen Brown's career-high 24.9 points per game is similarly worthy of praise. He's not on a growth trajectory as steeply upward-sloping as Tatum's, but Brown is quite comfortably the best second option in the game. Considering his current accuracy figures from the field (45.0 percent) and from three-point range (33.8 percent) are at career-low levels, he's actually more likely to raise his scoring average than Tatum over the balance of the season.

There's a reason these two have put together more deep playoff runs, culminating in last season's Finals appearance, than any other young duo in the NBA.

No pairing is going to average a combined 60.0 points per game, but Tatum and Brown will come closest this season.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Tuesday, Nov. 8. Salary info via Spotrac.

   

Read 22 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)