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1 Problem Every 2022-23 NBA Team Didn't See Coming

Zach Buckley

Every NBA team carried a clear plan of attack into the 2022-23 season.

Even though the campaign is less than a month old, most of those strategies have already been tweaked and a few might be on the verge of being scrapped outright.

Part of getting through the 82-game marathon is identifying and adapting to unforeseen challenges. While we can't help these clubs implement solutions, we can at least point out the one problem they didn't expect to encounter.

Atlanta Hawks: Three-Point Funk

Cole Burston

If you told the Atlanta Hawks before the season that Dejounte Murray would bag 40 percent of his long-range looks and De'Andre Hunter would splash a career-best 44.4 percent of his own, they might reasonably expect to have the Association's strongest perimeter attack.

It turns out they aren't even close: tied for 26th in makes (10.3 per game) and 15th in accuracy (36 percent).

Now, the Hawks should expect some positive regression, as Trae Young (32.1 percent) and John Collins (26.1) are both having the worst shooting campaigns of their career. Of course, if Murray and Hunter trend the other way, that may not solve anything. The hope here has to be that a healthy Bogdan Bodanović can eventually offset some of the perimeter production lost by the summer subtractions of Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari.

Boston Celtics: Defensive Decline

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The Boston Celtics surely knew their defense would miss the interior presence of Robert Williams III, whose season debut has been delayed by knee surgery. What they probably didn't see coming, though, was a skydive from first to 22nd in defensive efficiency.

"It's something that we obviously need to work on, something we need to fix, just get on the same page," Jayson Tatum said, per Jared Weiss of The Athletic. "Obviously, we know the level of defense that we can play as a unit, and it's just about finding ourselves and getting back to that place."

Last season, it took the Shamrocks three months to find their form, but once it clicked, they became the best team in basketball. That potential for a dramatic turnaround absolutely exists—particularly once Williams, who improved their defense by 3.2 points per 100 possessions last season, is manning the middle again—but the defense should be way better than this.

Brooklyn Nets: Changing Coaches in Less Than Two Weeks

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The Brooklyn Nets came into this campaign as a curiosity with a sky-high ceiling and perhaps the lowest floor of any club that could realistically be considered a contender. Still, it's been staggering to see just how low that basement really descended, as the club has trudged to a 2-6 start despite getting nearly 60 points per game out of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.

Perhaps that's why the Nets are already pounding the panic button by dismissing coach Steve Nash and reportedly zeroing in on suspended Celtics coach Ime Udoka as his replacement, per The Athletic and Stadium's Shams Charania.

Off-court chatter around this team aside, the on-court product has been a mess. The Nets are 19th on offense and 28th on defense, and only two teams—both Victor Wembanyama dreamers—have worse net ratings than Brooklyn's brutal minus-6.7 mark.

Charlotte Hornets: James Bouknight Regressing

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Look, expectations couldn't have been high for James Bouknight after an almost silent rookie season, but that hammers home just how deflating his latest downturn feels.

If nothing else, he at least brought "well, it can't get any worse" optimism into the campaign. He was 2021's No. 11 pick for a reason, and Charlotte surely hoped his intriguing talent—tied largely to a blend of athleticism and shot-creation—would surface sooner than later, particularly with Miles Bridges off the roster and LaMelo Ball sidelined by a troublesome ankle.

Unfortunately, that switch hasn't flipped. In fact, Bouknight looks even worse than before. His field-goal percentage is down to 29.2. His player efficiency rating is a staggering 1.6 (league average, for reference, is 15). He has more scoreless outings (three) than games in which he's shot better than 37 percent from the field (two).

Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams' Failure to Launch

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The idea of Patrick Williams as a player is intoxicating. It's what made him the fourth overall pick in 2020, and it's what gives him missing-piece potential in the Windy City.

The Chicago Bulls did a lot of things right last season, but they could never mask their lack of a physically imposing, two-way forward. Williams was supposed to grow into that role, but his career is heading the opposite direction.

His minutes are down to a career-low 22.6. His 44.2 field-goal percentage and 30.0 three-point splash rate are similarly personal worsts. His sagging shooting rates and unimpressive scoring (7.8 points per game) could be manageable with this group if he helped in enough other ways, but he isn't making his presence felt anywhere. Not in a good way, at least. Chicago has fared a whopping 29.1 points worse per 100 possessions with him than without, the worst net differential among their rotation regulars.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Caris LeVert's Inside-the-Arc Struggles

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Caris LeVert is simultaneously shooting a career-best 48.5 percent from three and a career-worst 33.3 percent from the floor. How is that possible? Well, he's sabotaging his overall rate with an atrocious 21.4 percent success rate inside the arc.

As a two-point brick-layer, he's been an equal-opportunity offender. His "best" connection rate on twos is his 33.3 percent mark inside of three feet. From three to 10 feet, he's at 15.4. Back out to 10 to 16 feet, and he's at 16.7. Step back to 16 feet out to the arc, and he's a 20 percent shooter.

Historically a smooth shot-creator with a shaky outside stroke, he has suddenly become problematically reliable beyond the arc. That might explain his wide swings in production, like when he recently followed up a 41-point outburst by dropping a single point on 0-of-9 shooting his next time out.

Dallas Mavericks: JaVale McGee's Lack of Impact

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The Dallas Mavericks want things to work with JaVale McGee, and in theory, the appeal is easily recognized. He's a bouncy 7-footer who can finish above the rim and protect it on defense. His energy alone should've perked up this frontcourt, and his low-maintenance, rim-running role should be tailor-made for his skills.

Maybe this will eventually mesh, but Dallas has found better results with almost any other option at center.

All of his individual numbers are short of his career norms, including a double-digit drop in field-goal shooting (47.4 now, 57.6 for his career), and his team marks are even more concerning. The Mavs have been 29.9 points worse per 100 possessions with him than without. Dallas' starting five has posted a minus-12.4 net rating across 51 minutes, but when Dwight Powell is swapped in for McGee, that net rating spikes to plus-32.9 over 21 minutes.

Denver Nuggets: Second-Unit Slippage

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The Denver Nuggets understand they'll never be the same without Nikola Jokic on the floor. That's just a part of life when rostering the defending two-time MVP.

However, that doesn't mean things have to spiral out of control without him. Last season, they were 16.3 points worse per 100 possessions without him. This season, that difference has nearly doubled, as they're now 31.2 points worse when he needs a breather.

While it's tempting to toss in a snarky comment about relying on DeAndre Jordan at this stage of his career, the reality is Denver's depth issues have extended well beyond its backup big. This entire bench has the Association's worst net rating at minus-9.7, and it doesn't have enough scoring punch to offset Bones Hyland's early struggles (34.9 field-goal percentage, 25.8 percent on twos).

Detroit Pistons: Killian Hayes' Regression

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An NBA player's third season is often viewed as a make-or-break campaign. If that's true, the foundation underneath Killian Hayes' career has never been shakier.

The Detroit Pistons couldn't have expected much from him given his paltry production the past two seasons, but they certainly hoped the No. 7 pick from the 2020 draft would at least hint at positive growth. Instead, he's trending in the wrong direction and inching his way closer to the bust bin.

He is mildly helpful as a defender and distributor, which could give him some utility in a guard group that might be able to squeeze enough scoring out of Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey to get by. However, that doesn't actually work when Hayes presents zero threat to opposing defenses. His scoring has sunk to a woeful 2.5 points per game, and his 17.0/13.3/66.7 reads like one red flag after the next.

Golden State Warriors: Two-Way Trouble

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The Golden State Warriors are old enough and wise enough to realize the importance of pacing themselves for the 82-game marathon. That's why they may not have expected to sprint right out of the gate, particularly with so many unproven contributors on their second unit.

Having said that, the defending champs couldn't have seen this coming, either.

It's one thing to start a season on the slow-and-steady track. It's quite another for an on-paper heavyweight contender to be sitting 20th on offense, 25th on defense and 23rd in net rating. Golden State's next win over a .500 or better opponent will be its first.

Houston Rockets: Field-Goal Shooting

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The Houston Rockets are so young—cue the studio audience's "How young are they?" response—they may as well break their huddles by saying, "1, 2, 3, growing pains!"

Tracking statistics for this squad almost seems silly given that this roster is only slightly less raw than fresh produce at the farmer's market. Couple that with the fact that each loss potentially pushes this team a step closer to Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, and Houston might be the most carefree club in the Association.

All of that said, there are still baseline standards for offensive execution, and the Rockets are nowhere near them.

Collectively, they're shooting a league-worst 41.8 percent overall and an atrocious 46.6 percent on two-pointers. More troubling, though, is how their worst offenders are their most important players: Jalen Green, whose field-goal percentage has dropped nearly seven points from last season (42.6 to 36), and Jabari Smith Jr., who has shot below 36 percent in seven of his first eight NBA games. Leading scorer Kevin Porter Jr., meanwhile, is matching his previous worst with a 41.5 percent success rate.

Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner's Slow Start

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While Myles Turner has spent most of his seven-plus seasons with the Indiana Pacers in close proximity to the trade rumor mill, the trade winds have never swirled quite like this.

The franchise is plunging into a rebuild, and the 26-year-old is speeding toward unrestricted free agency in 2023. This partnership has seemingly passed the point of utility for both sides, and now it's a matter of finding the right win-now shopper who offers whatever it is the Pacers are after.

That's an easier trade to finalize if not for Turner's uncharacteristically sluggish start. While front offices might give him the benefit of the doubt given his track record versus this miniature sample size, he can only generate so much excitement among rival fanbases while shooting 34.5 percent overall and 27.3 percent from distance. Give him his normal shooting rates (48.8/34.8/76.9 for his career), and perhaps the paint-protecting, floor-spacing big man would have his new hoops home already.

Los Angeles Clippers: Anemic Offense

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The Los Angeles Clippers are loaded on paper. In practice, though, they're once again awaiting the return of a healthy Kawhi Leonard (limited to two games so far by ongoing knee trouble) and struggling to tread water without him.

The Clippers sit 29th in offensive efficiency, trailing everyone other than their Crypto.com Arena co-tenants. They're dead last in turnover percentage (17.1) and 27th in true shooting percentage (54.4).

They may have anticipated some bumps in the road with Leonard given his lengthy layoff, but his absence shouldn't be this destructive. They still have an All-Star in Paul George and a veteran-heavy supporting cast around him, so their inability to shoot the three, share the rock or protect the basketball must be destroying coach Tyronn Lue's sleep schedule.

Los Angeles Lakers: Offensive Congestion

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Surely the Los Angeles Lakers anticipated some issues with spacing, since, as LeBron James put it, "We're not a team constructed of great shooting."

However, this is something entirely different than not great shooting. This is a barrage of paint-clogging bricks the likes of which the league has seldom seen. Among the 88 teams to ever attempt 200-plus threes over their first six games, these Lakers rank dead last in three-point percentage (26.6) and 82nd in true shooting percentage (51.5).

This group is so anemic beyond the arc that opposing defenses can simply camp inside of it and swarm L.A.'s attackers. Despite rostering explosive finishers like LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers are 24th in both shooting off of drives (43.5 percent) and connection rate inside of five feet (59.1).

Memphis Grizzlies: Leaky, League-Worst Defense

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The Memphis Grizzlies are third in scoring and sixth in offensive efficiency. They're also 23rd in scoring differential and 24th in net rating.

How is that combination possible? Because the defense stinks.

Memphis' league-worst 119.5 defensive rating almost has basketball's bottom rung to itself. Only three other teams eclipse 116, and no one else climbs higher than Detroit's 118.9. The Grizzlies, who were sixth in defensive efficiency last season, could not have seen this coming. Jaren Jackson Jr.'s absence isn't helping, and neither are the offseason departures of De'Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, but nothing can excuse this putrid performance.

Miami Heat: Major Defensive Drop-Off

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The Miami Heat are built to win with defense. Whether that's because of a commitment to the #culture or a reflection of this group's offensive limitations doesn't matter. The point is that for this team to dream about greatness, the defense needs to be great.

It's not even good right now.

Miami maybe expected some slippage without P.J. Tucker, but this has been much closer to a collapse. One season after finishing fourth in defensive efficiency, the Heat are all the way down at 18th now. Interior defense has been an issue—they don't block many shots or rebound well—but more than anything, they just aren't winning enough matchups. Miami has surrendered the seventh-most points per isolation possession, a category in which it finished eighth just last season.

Milwaukee Bucks: Shaky Shooting

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The Milwaukee Bucks don't have a healthy Khris Middleton yet and do have the league's only unblemished record, so you won't hear much bellyaching around the Badger State. (As long as you can steer the conversation away from the Green Bay Packers, at least.)

If you listen closely, though, you might hear a few more clangs than expected.

Yes, having Middleton would help, but his absence alone shouldn't be enough to push this team into the league's bottom third for field-goal (22nd), three-point (25th) and free-throw (26th) shooting. But with almost every perimeter regular shooting below 40 percent from the field—Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter, Wesley Matthews and Jordan Nwora—it's no minor miracle that Milwaukee remains unbeaten.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Perimeter Problems on Offense

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The Minnesota Timberwolves likely planned for some clunky interior moments on offense when they took the twin-towers plunge with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. They certainly have encountered a few, too.

The bigger issue, though, is the perimeter offense hasn't been up to par. More specifically, D'Angelo Russell, Jaden McDaniels and Jaylen Nowell have all taken a step backward and significantly contributed to the club's slide from seventh to 24th in offensive efficiency.

All three players have dipped below 30 percent from three. Russell's points and assists are down, and his turnovers are up. McDaniels is averaging fewer points and assists per 36 minutes. Nowell's true shooting percentage is down double digits (58.1 to 45.9).

New Orleans Pelicans: Too Deep to Find Developmental Minutes

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Six games into the season, the New Orleans Pelicans keep hinting at having a skyscraper's ceiling despite the fact that Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram have five absences between them already. Life is good in the Big Easy.

A little too good, honestly, if you were hoping to see them unleash this summer's No. 8 pick, Dyson Daniels.

The rookie handled mop-up duty on Opening Night and logged 22 minutes in a game both Williamson and Ingram missed, but that's been it. Daniels has battled an ankle sprain, but New Orleans is in such good shape on the wings that he may not sniff the floor when this rotation has everyone available. That's a good problem to have, but you'd like to see Daniels get a little more opportunity to show whether he can consistently contribute.

New York Knicks: The Offense Can't Breathe

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New York's starters have splashed just 36 threes in six games. For context, Stephen Curry has 38 triples on his own.

Incredibly, though, the low volume isn't the biggest worry here. The efficiency—or inefficiency, rather—is what's really derailing this unit.

Evan Fournier, who has a team-high 15 threes, is the Knicks' lone starter shooting better than 34 percent from deep. Jalen Brunson is at 33.3, while RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are both south of 25 percent. The Knicks already have a non-spacer in rim-running center Mitchell Robinson, so if they can't get a couple of these shooters on track, this unit's offense might be rendered nonfunctional.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Too Many Wins

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At some point in the near future, it will make sense for the Oklahoma City Thunder to floor the gas pedal and accelerate their rebuild.

That time is not now. Not with Chet Holmgren lost for the season and certainly not with a loaded draft class arriving next summer.

And yet, Oklahoma City finds itself on a four-game winning streak with two victories over the Clippers and another over the Mavericks. This surge should earn head coach Mark Daigneault a huge tip of the cap and get some overdue spotlight time for breakout star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

However, it might also have the front office a little worried. The Thunder's most valuable picks in their enormous collection are still their own, and next year's selection looks especially critical given the quality of the top prospects. Obviously, there's time to reenter the race to the bottom, but OKC is giving its rival tankers a head start.

Orlando Magic: Mo Bamba's Sinking Value

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For reasons known only to them, the Orlando Magic opened free agency by bringing back Mo Bamba on a two-year, $20.6 million contract. That's not a knock on him, but it was never clear how he was supposed to earn his keep in such a crowded frontcourt.

Clearly, Orlando saw him as an eight-figure talent, but even the franchise might now admit it's hard for him to fill an eight-figure role.

His minutes have been nearly halved since last season (from 25.7 to 13.4), and the limited run has seemingly prevented him from finding any rhythm with his shot (42.1/26.3/60.0). Bol Bol, a fellow 7-footer with a similar unicorn blend of shot-blocking and floor-spacing, has emerged and jumped ahead of Bamba in the rotation. And remember, this is happening with a still-unavailable Jonathan Isaac. If he's ever cleared to return, Bamba's role could shrink even further while his sizable salary stays the same.

Philadelphia 76ers: Danuel House Jr.'s Slow Start

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Philly's summer renovations to its supporting cast have mostly clicked. P.J. Tucker is once again splashing corner threes and pestering scorers of all sizes. De'Anthony Melton is energizing this team with defense and transition attacks.

Danuel House Jr. is the lone exception. He should be a clean three-and-D fit for the Sixers stars—he played his best ball alongside James Harden in Houston—but there hasn't been enough threes or defense.

House has connected on just 27.3 percent of his long-range looks. And since the three-ball is such a massive part of his offensive arsenal, that's probably why he's putting up a puny 2.6 points per game. Meanwhile, his minus-1.4 defensive box plus/minus is the worst of his career.

Phoenix Suns: Point God's Shooting Funk

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For a 37-year-old who wasn't an explosive athlete to begin with, Chris Paul has mostly done a masterful job of handling the aging curve. Even now, in his 18th NBA season, he's pairing a league-leading 11.0 assists per game with a career-low 1.7 turnovers while holding his own defensively.

His shooting, though, might be the first part of his game to show his age.

Maybe he'll snap out of this, but so far it's been rough. His 35.9 field-goal percentage and 23.1 three-point splash rate are both the worst of his career. Even his 82.6 free-throw percentage is the second-worst he's ever posted. It's too early to get too alarmed by this, but the Phoenix Suns can't afford to have this linger.

Portland Trail Blazers: Turnover Trouble

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The last time the Portland Trail Blazers were trying to win—i.e., not the 2021-22 season, when they tanked to protect a lottery pick—they had the league's lowest turnover percentage (11.2). Two years later, they're now 27th in the category and coughing it up on nearly 16 percent of their offensive possessions (15.8).

That the offense still holds down a top-10 spot in efficiency shows how well things are rolling otherwise in Rip City. Beyond keeping Damian Lillard healthy, it wouldn't have been easy to script a better start to this season.

Still, Portland has to show a better appreciation for the value of each possession. The Blazers might have better two-way balance than they've had in the past, but this group is still geared to win with offense first. Turnovers not only short-circuit the attack, but they also fuel the opposition's transition game and up the difficulty level on the defense.

Sacramento Kings: Middling Offensive Efficiency

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De'Aaron Fox is in the midst of a career campaign as both a scorer and a shooter. Domantas Sabonis always does a little of everything and sometimes does a lot of it. Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray are both angling for 50/40/90 enshrinement. Davion Mitchell could do the same if he gets his free throws on track. While Malik Monk has struggled with his shot, he's never had a wider gap between his assists (3.8) and turnovers (1.5).

If you spent your summer scripting Sacramento's path to an elite attack—hopefully you had better things to do, but who knows?—these are probably the primary boxes that all needed checking.

So why, then, aren't the Sacramento Kings sitting any better than 17th in offensive efficiency? The way the eye test reads it, Sacramento's whole is less than the sum of its parts. In other words, there are individual Kings players having strong starts, but they don't do much to elevate the players around them.

San Antonio Spurs: This Isn't the Plan

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The San Antonio Spurs are feisty. Keldon Johnson is prominently featured in the Most Improved Player race. Devin Vassell might not be too far behind. Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson are collectively—and unofficially—shooting a gazillion percent from three.

If San Antonio had any designs on competing this season, all of this would be overwhelmingly good news.

But that's not the Spurs' reality. They've cut ties with nearly every recognizable veteran and leaned into a rebuild that doesn't necessarily need to linger long if the 2023 draft treats them well. However, they need to do their part first and start stacking up their lottery odds. Getting off to a 5-2 start is moving in the opposite direction from what should be the organization's goal.

Toronto Raptors: Precious Achiuwa's Inefficiency

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The Toronto Raptors need reliable reserves to complement one of the league's best starting lineups, and Precious Achiuwa was supposed to be in the circle of trust.

Maybe his athleticism and defensive energy earn him that status anyway, but alarm sirens are blaring on the offensive end.

His three-point shooting nose-dived (from 35.9 to 22.2 percent), and it threatens to stay down there, as he's never been even a passable free-throw shooter (career 57.3). The bigger worry, though, is his tumble to 37.0 percent shooting from the field (down from 43.9 last season), which seems impossibly low given how many of his shots come from close range.

Utah Jazz: Exceeding Expectations at the Worst Time

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If Utah Jazz fans are enjoying this early hot streak, it'd be hard to blame them. As much as we might extol the art of tanking, it's objectively way more fun to root on a winner.

If this early success was merely the byproduct of Utah's youth exceeding expectations, that might be fine. Unfortunately, it's not. Instead, it's 30-somethings like Mike Conley, Kelly Olynyk and Jordan Clarkson doing a lot of the damage, which does nothing to brighten the franchise's future.

As an organization, Utah is looking years down the line. It built its trade returns for All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert around draft assets. It hired the league's youngest head coach, Will Hardy (34), turned Royce O'Neale into another first-round pick and kicked the tires on Talen-Horton Tucker.

All of this points to the Jazz playing the long game, but their best bet for improving their tomorrow is minimizing their wins and maximizing their draft-lottery odds.

Washington Wizards: Punch-less Offense

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On paper, the Washington Wizards offense appears somewhere between functional and outright fun. Bradley Beal has twice averaged 25-plus points. Kristaps Porzingis is a walking mismatch. Kyle Kuzma scores in myriad ways. Monte Morris finds shots for others and never turns it over. Will Barton gives the bench mob some extra juice.

This is a group that, had everything broken just right, could have made a run at a top-10 ranking in offensive efficiency.

Instead, it's stuck at 25th in the category, which would be Washington's worst ranking since Beal's rookie season of 2012-13. This offense has too many weapons to struggle like this, but the shot menu needs some mathematical tweaks. The Wizards rank 26th in both three-point rate and free-throw rate.

Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through games played on Nov. 1.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.

   

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