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NBA MVP Ranking: Giannis Antetokounmpo Leads Way-Too-Soon Top 5

Dan Favale

Early-season NBA MVP ladders are both brutal and beautiful. The margin of separation is terribly, terrifically thin with fewer than 10 games in the bank, and it makes ironing out a definitive hierarchy rewardingly wrenching.

Basically:

This first MVP ladder of the 2022-23 season is based on everything we've seen entering games on Monday, Oct 31. That's it. There is a dash and dab of "Is So-and-So's performance sustainable?" peppered throughout the final pecking order. Beyond that, we're not projecting.

Interpretations of the NBA's MVP award vary across the board. How much should team success reflect the selection? Does a player's case get diluted by having enviable talent around him? Should players receive pomp and circumstance for lifeline usage and thriving with a shallower supporting cast?

I can't pretend to have all the answers here. Personally, I try to view the MVP through a lens of "Who uplifts his current team the most and would do so in nearly any other situation?"

Make no mistake, this order will change throughout the year. No one is untouchable right now, and over 15 names ambled across the top-five radar. Winnowing the list down was painful, and rest assured, I thoroughly hate myself.

Instead, and like always, this ranking is meant to reflect a snapshot in time—what my ballot would look like if the season ended right now, which thankfully it doesn't, because after the (should-be obvious) No. 1 entry, things get debatable as hell.

Honorable Mentions

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10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Here's every player averaging more points per possession out of isolation than Damian Lillard:

That's it.

This isn't Lillard's entire case. He remains an offensive cheat code across so many different usage types, and his defensive energy has picked up to boot. A calf injury that's going to keep him sidelined for a bit coupled with an offense that's less dependent on him to create everything for everyone drags him down, but not yet outside the top 10.

9. Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

Did Pascal Siakam get better...again? He sure did.

Even when his finishes aren't falling, his attack mode is a weapon. He has more counters than ever when probing and doesn't get thrown off balance or out of his dribble when faced with congestion. The catch-and-shoot three is back (42.1 percent), he's getting to the line at a career-high clip, and few players rival his overall offensive importance and efficiency.

To wit: Luka Doncic and Trae Young are the only others matching Siakam's usage (30.0) and assist rate (37.1) while committing turnovers on fewer than 13 percent of their possessions.

8. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Yes, Jokic's scoring numbers have dipped. And sure, he needs to be taking and making more threes. And no question, the Nuggets' loss to the Los Angeles Lakers is clearly unforgivable. And duh, Jokic has no chance of actually winning this award because voter fatigue is a thing.

Still, let's collectively agree not to write off 20-plus points and eight-plus assists per game from an offensive lifeline drilling 69 percent of his twos. Especially when Denver continues to comfortably outstrip opponents with him on the floor.

7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

Not a typo. SGA is having a monster season.

Averaging 31 points and seven assists per game on better-than-league-average true shooting (58.9) while hardly ever turning the ball over and subsisting almost entirely on self-created looks is no joke. And right now, the Thunder aren't funny, either. They are hell-on-Earth to face. And though the offense remains clunky, it hovers above league average with SGA on the court—stretches in which Oklahoma City also just so happens to be outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per 100 possessions.

6. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Steph going kaboom is among the NBA's most enduring constants. And despite the Warriors' awkward start, he'd be a shoo-in for the top five if three of his past four outings didn't feature lackluster outside shooting.

On the bright side, the James Wiseman minutes might soon arm Steph with the largest net-rating swing in existence.

5. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

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Giving the "final" spot to Devin Booker was, predictably, not easy. Stephen Curry could just as soon be here. Ditto for Pascal Siakam and Nikola Jokic. Damian Lillard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, too.

At the same time, Booker himself could also be higher. He's averaging 29.3 points and 5.5 assists while banging in 60 percent of his twos—including a 56 percent clip from mid-range—for a Phoenix Suns team that has retained its status as a well-oiled machine.

What's more, Booker has never been more pivotal to that machine. Chris Paul isn't off to the cleanest start, Cam Johnson began the season battling hip issues, and while the bench has been surprisingly strong, the Suns remain without Jae Crowder.

Booker's 10.5 potential assists are his highest since the pre-CP3 era—and a significant uptick from last season (8.4). So much of the Suns offense is now tethered to his decision-making out of double-teams and from the in-between.

Opponents are doubling him on 31.9 percent of his possessions, and finding outlets like Deandre Ayton in those situations has helped Phoenix navigate various slumps and stay afloat. Booker is also shooting 60 percent on 15.8 drives per game while notching what would be a career-best free-throw-attempt rate.

Two consecutive ice-cold games from distance kept Booker outside the top four and barely in fifth, because that's how this works right now. But the offhanded comments you hear about his defense no longer being a weakness are accurate, and in the early going, he's elevated the Suns' point differential per 100 possessions by 25.7 when he's on the court—by far and away the largest swing in the top five.

4. Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

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Spectacle ensues every time Ja Morant attacks, not merely because he's a human poster, but for the unpredictability with which he now plays.

Will he go for the monster finish? Slow down, get a defender on his hip and finish with a much-too-easy or impossibly angled scoop layup? Seamlessly slide back for a double-clutch jumper? Loft or thread a dime to his rolling big?

The offensive armory from which Morant pulls has never been deeper. That includes his three-ball. He won't shoot 61 percent(!) on above-the-break triples forever, but leaving him unattended is no longer tenable recourse for defenses.

To that end, the Memphis Grizzlies currently lead the league in points scored per possession. Fewer than 10 games isn't much to go off, but no reasonable mind had them here five-plus outings into the season. And the Ja Morant-powered minutes haven't only been better; they include a half-court attack that ranks inside the 73rd percentile of efficiency.

Memphis' aggregate success takes center stage most of the time. And it should. The Grizzlies collectively traffic in defying expectations. But this year's defense is off to a rocky start without Jaren Jackson Jr., and Santi Aldama ranks second on the team in total minutes played. These are not ideal circumstances—which makes Morant's 32.6 points and 6.7 assists on the highest true shooting percentage (66.2) you'll see within this list that much more impressive...and mission-critical.

3. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

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Figuring out where to place Luka Doncic was and is and might remain a struggle.

On the one hand, his 36.7 points per game lead the Association. He pairs that distinction with 8.7 assists per game and a jaw-jutting 65 percent conversion rate inside the arc.

The level to which the Dallas Mavericks depend on him, still, shouldn't exist. His 40.9 usage rate would be the second-highest in NBA history, behind only 2016-17 Russell Westbrook, who won MVP honors. Yet, Doncic partners historical centrality with a turnover rate south of nine. The word you're looking for is: How??? It shouldn't be possible to blend the degree of difficulty on so many of his passes with such economical possession control.

On the other hand, Doncic is so far shooting a career-low 22.6 percent from three, and his offensive monopolization directly contributes to the Mavericks altogether punting on transition and any sort of variable cadence whatsoever. How much of a bump should he get for being a one-man show? And how much of a pass does he warrant for Dallas' rocky start?

Pretty big ones on both fronts, if you ask me.

The Mavericks appear to be in self-discovery mode given some of the rotation decisions Jason Kidd has made. That's not on Doncic—who despite the departure of Jalen Brunson, a woefully predictable crunch-time and late-clock structure and, frankly, too much JaVale McGee, continues to somehow, someway, anchor a top-five offense.

2. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

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Mega-controversial take: The Cleveland Cavaliers were smart to trade for Donovan Mitchell.

Glad I got that off my chest.

Though the Cavs have cobbled together a more effective bench rotation than expected (related: Holy crap, Kevin Love), Mitchell has very much been the life force for an offense that ranks sixth in points scored per possession despite playing almost entirely without Darius Garland and experimenting with imperfect solutions at the 3. (Also related: That Dean Wade extension was highway robbery by Cleveland.)

The numbers speak deafening volumes. Mitchell is averaging 32.2 points and 7.3 assists while knocking down 52.6 percent of his twos and a sanity-shattering 45.5 percent of his threes. He's thrown more errant passes than usual, but that comes with figuring out timing and fit with a completely new team missing the primary playmaker off which you were supposed to operate.

At this moment, there might not be a hotter rim-and-threes scorer in the league. Mitchell is shooting 73 percent at the basket and 62 percent on 16.3 drives per game, and his 52.9 percent clip on off-the-dribble triples leads the field of everyone who's attempted more than 15 such treys.

Whether Mitchell can maintain this pace is a matter of course. There is no ceiling on the 2022-23 Cavs, but the complexion of the offense will change once Garland rejoins the rotation. Mitchell's singular excellence may pull back as a result. I'd still bet against it materially dissipating.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

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Giannis Antetokounmpo is beyond words. He's just relentlessly dominant, everywhere, against everyone, without fail.

There continues to be an unprecedented unstoppability with which he plays. Can he fall too in love with the mid-range, from where he's shooting 29 percent? Sure. But he can also flip a switch and resume attacking the basket in what opposing defenses can only describe as hopelessly unguardable avalanches.

It has become cliche to wonder aloud whether the mothership will ever call Giannis home and ruin the NBA experience for all of us. That doesn't make it untrue. His numbers shouldn't exist in this timeline and dimension. Through five games, he's averaging 34.4 points, 14.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.6 blocks while downing 65.2 percent of his twos and an ah-what-the-hell-why-not 35.3 percent of his threes.

The defense is as standout as ever. Has there ever been a more effective weak-side helper? Or someone seemingly so emotionally invested in the outcome of every possession that he takes each basket personally? I'm not sure. But I do know Giannis once again ranks among the best high-volume stoppers at the rim, and that the Milwaukee Bucks sit atop the Eastern Conference and the entire NBA, without Khris Middleton or Pat Connaughton, because of him.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Monday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

   

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