At long last, the College Football Playoff selection committee has spoken, giving us an initial Top Four of No. 1 Tennessee, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Clemson.

Close on that quartet's collective tail are Michigan, Alabama, TCU, Oregon and USC.

Georgia at No. 3 may have surprised some folks, but not us. In our Top 25 at the end of Week 9, we had the exact same Top Nine as the selection committee, with the only difference being we had Clemson and Michigan swapped at Nos. 4 and 5. Even that was a close call.

If we're surprised by anything in the Top Nine, it's that the committee had the audacity to rob us of No. 1 Tennessee at No. 2 Georgia this weekend.

Alas, No. 1 at No. 3 will have to suffice.

The only significant surprise in the Top 25 was LSU at No. 10, which feels at least five or six spots too high.

The Tigers have two losses and just three wins over projected bowl teams. 4-4 Florida is no lock to get to six wins, either. And by having LSU at No. 10 right before its big showdown with Alabama, it kind of opens Pandora's Box for the Tigers to become the first two-loss team to reach the playoff if they win out. But we'll start to worry about that if LSU actually knocks off 'Bama.

So, those are the current rankings, but what are things going to look like at the end of the season?

Yes, we have the current Top Four as our final Top Four, but not in the same order. (Just flip Georgia and Tennessee to account for the Bulldogs likely beating the Volunteers this weekend, though, and it looks good to us.)

Please note that these are bowl projections and not some sort of "if the season ended today" exercise. To that end, the combination of each team's win-total betting line and its projected win total according to ESPN's Football Power Index are more important than its record or AP ranking.

The bowl games have been broken into tiers and are presented in ascending order of magnitude.

For the first four tiers of bowls, we'll discuss one team projected for a better bowl than it was one week ago as well as a team checking in a bit lower in the aftermath of Week 9 results. After touching on the updated CFP projections, we'll wrap things up with a conference-by-conference breakdown of which teams are projected to go to which bowls.

Group of 5 Bowls

Bahamas (Dec. 16): Buffalo (5-3) vs. UTSA (6-2)
Cure (Dec. 16): Georgia Southern (5-3) vs. San Diego State (4-4)
Frisco (Dec. 17): Southern Miss (5-3) vs. UNLV (4-4)
LendingTree (Dec. 17): Bowling Green (4-4) vs. Coastal Carolina (7-1)
New Mexico (Dec. 17): Fresno State (4-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (4-4)
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 19): Appalachian State (5-3) vs. Memphis (4-4)
Boca Raton (Dec. 20): North Texas (5-4) vs. South Alabama (6-2)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 20): Ohio (5-3) vs. Wyoming (6-3)
New Orleans (Dec. 21): Troy (6-2) vs. Western Kentucky (5-4)
Independence (Dec. 23): Army (3-4) vs. SMU (4-4)
Hawai'i (Dec. 24): Air Force (5-3) vs. UAB (4-4)
Camellia (Dec. 27): Florida Atlantic (4-5) vs. Marshall (4-4)
Arizona (Dec. 30): Eastern Michigan (5-4) vs. San Jose State (5-2)

Moving Up: Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic just keeps bouncing in and out and back in our bowl projections.

The Week 6 loss to North Texas knocked the Owls out. The Week 7 win over Rice brought them back in. The subsequent loss to UTEP put them back in the "unlikely to reach six wins" camp. But this past Saturday's upset victory over UAB was a big step back in the right direction in a league where eight of 11 teams are currently within half a game of .500 overall.

What will the Owls do this week?

Well, they'll take their 4-5 record into a bye week before returning for a game at Florida International that they should win. But with an offense that has been held to 21.7 points over its past six games, there's no telling what to expect.

Sliding Down: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

The Chants had a nice road win over Marshall this week, improving to 7-1 overall and remaining at least somewhat in the hunt for the Group of Five's spot in the Cotton Bowl.

However, with both Miami and Missouri joining the projected field, Coastal Carolina got squeezed out of last week's spot in the Birmingham Bowl and back down to this tier.

And unless they can pull off the unlikely feat of winning four in a row against Appalachian State, Southern Miss, Virginia and James Madison, the Chanticleers figure to ultimately land in one of these 13 bowls.

But you never know. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Iowa, Miami and Missouri are nothing close to a sure thing to get to six wins, so there might be a spot available in the Birmingham and/or Gasparilla Bowls when all the dust settles.

Group of 5 vs. Power 5 or Pool Bowls

Fenway (Dec. 17): Cincinnati (6-2) vs. Pittsburgh (4-4)
LA (Dec. 17): Boise State (6-2) vs. Washington State (4-4)
Armed Forces (Dec. 22): BYU (4-5) vs. Houston (5-3)
Gasparilla (Dec. 23): Miami (4-4) vs. Texas Tech (4-4)
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo (6-3) vs. Wisconsin (4-4)
Birmingham (Dec. 27): Liberty (7-1) vs. Texas A&M (3-5)
First Responder (Dec. 27): East Carolina (6-3) vs. Kansas (5-3)
Military (Dec. 28): Louisville (5-3) vs. UCF (6-2)

Moving Up: Miami Hurricanes

It was not a confidence-inspiring victory that pushed the Hurricanes back into the projected bowl picture. In fact, their four-overtime, 14-12 win at Virginia was about as aesthetically unpleasing as a football game can get.

But Miami did improve to 4-4 and is back in somewhat good shape to get to six wins.

The Week 12 game at Clemson will most likely result in a loss, but winning two of the other three (vs. Florida State, at Georgia Tech, vs. Pittsburgh) is at least feasible, perhaps even probable.

It likely hinges on the health of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, as this offense has been just plain bad since he got hurt midway through the Week 8 loss to Duke. If he's good to go against the Seminoles this weekend, Miami's chances of getting that W increase significantly.

Sliding Down: Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M has lost four consecutive games for the first time since 2005. And if it loses to Florida this coming weekend, that would be the program's first five-game losing streak since 1980.

Jimbo Fisher isn't going to get fired. The buyout is too astronomical. But we have now reached the point where Texas A&M is about as likely to miss out on bowl season as it is to qualify for it.

ESPN's Football Power Index projects the Aggies to finish the season with 5.6 wins and gives them a 55.6 percent chance of getting to six wins. That means it's basically a coin flip. And based on Academic Progress Rate scores, there's little to no chance of A&M being selected if it finishes at 5-7 and there aren't enough six-win teams to fill the field.

Power 5 Bowls with Potential to Be Great

Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 27): Baylor (5-3) vs. Iowa (4-4)
Holiday (Dec. 28): Syracuse (6-2) vs. Washington (6-2)
Liberty (Dec. 28): Florida (4-4) vs. Oklahoma (5-3)
Texas (Dec. 28): South Carolina (5-3) vs. Texas (5-3)
Pinstripe (Dec. 29): Notre Dame (5-3) vs. Purdue (5-3)
Duke's Mayo (Dec. 30): Duke (5-3) vs. Maryland (6-2)
Sun (Dec. 30): Oregon State (6-2) vs. Wake Forest (6-2)
Music City (Dec. 31): Minnesota (5-3) vs. Missouri (4-4)

Moving Up: Missouri Tigers

We've been using "almost lost at Missouri" as a slight against Georgia since that close call one month ago.

But maybe Missouri is just a solid team?

The Tigers certainly took care of business on the road against No. 25 South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to 10 points and 203 total yards in improving to 4-4.

Missouri's Week 2 game against Kansas State (a 40-12 loss) got quite out of hand, but the Tigers have held their past six opponents to 18.0 points per game. For the season, they've allowed 310.6 total yards per game. (285.7 if you take out the game against Georgia.)

I'm not saying Missouri is going to win at Tennessee in Week 11, but it might be good enough to go 3-0 in its remaining home games against Kentucky, New Mexico State and Arkansas.

Sliding Down: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

It's not easy for a Power Five team to drop multiple tiers in a single week this deep into the season.

But when you commit eight turnovers in the span of nine possessions in a blowout loss to a team you were supposed to beat, you take some lumps.

Wake Forest was projected for the Orange Bowl one week ago, but it was beaten so soundly by Louisville that we're left to wonder if the Demon Deacons will even win another game.

They're slightly favored this week at NC State and figure to be slightly favored vs. North Carolina, vs. Syracuse and at Duke after that. Not one of those four games is anything close to a sure thing, though, and it's likely they go 2-2 to finish 8-4.

That definitely wouldn't be enough for the Orange Bowl, and it might not even be enough for the Cheez-It or Gator Bowls.

Top Non-New Year's 6 Bowls

Las Vegas (Dec. 17): Arkansas (5-3) vs. Utah (6-2)
Alamo (Dec. 29): Kansas State (6-2) vs. UCLA (7-1)
Cheez-It (Dec. 29): NC State (6-2) vs. Oklahoma State (6-2)
Gator (Dec. 30): Florida State (5-3) vs. Mississippi State (5-3)
Citrus (Jan. 2): LSU (6-2) vs. Penn State (6-2)
ReliaQuest (Jan. 2): Illinois (7-1) vs. Kentucky (5-3)

Moving Up: Florida State Seminoles

After three consecutive losses and a bye week to figure out where things were going awry, Florida State stopped the bleeding with a 25-point victory over Georgia Tech. Jordan Travis was one of the top-producing QBs in the country last week, throwing for a career-high 396 yards with three touchdowns.

Not only did the Seminoles get back on track, but they also benefited from losses by both Syracuse and Wake Forest, ascending to this spot in the Gator Bowl almost by default.

They're still a bit behind both the Orange and the Demon Deacons in projected wins, but it's close enough that they could get selected for the Bowl game in Jacksonville as opposed to getting shipped up to Charlotte, North Carolina, for the Duke's Mayo Bowl, or out west for the Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas) or the Holiday Bowl (San Diego, California).

They had better win at Miami this week, though. Winning the remaining home games against Louisiana and Florida is a near-must, too. But a path to 8-4 and the Gator Bowl is certainly there.

Sliding Down: Penn State Nittany Lions

No one really expected Penn State to upset Ohio State. And, to their credit, the Nittany Lions made it way more interesting than expected, at least until things rapidly unraveled in the final nine minutes of the fourth quarter.

All the same, the loss did drop Penn State back behind Ole Miss, both in the current rankings and in the projected wins column. As a result, it's now the 8-1 Rebels projected for the Big Ten/SEC spot in the Orange Bowl as opposed to the 6-2 Nittany Lions.

It's likely that both teams will finish 10-2—Penn State winning out against Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State; Ole Miss losing to Alabama before rebounding to beat Arkansas and Mississippi State. And if that is how things play out, the order in which the Rebels and Nittany Lions land in the final rankings may well boil down to how competitive Ole Miss is in its loss to Alabama.

While we await that data point, though, advantage Ole Miss.

Non-CFP New Year's 6 Bowls

Orange (Dec. 30): North Carolina (7-1) vs. Ole Miss (8-1)
Sugar (Dec. 31): TCU (8-0) vs. Alabama (7-1)
Cotton (Jan. 2): Tulane (7-1) vs. USC (7-1)
Rose (Jan. 2): Michigan (8-0) vs. Oregon (7-1)

The Battle for the Cotton Bowl

We normally focus on the chase for the No. 4 seed in this space, but nothing really changed in the past week. Michigan, TCU and Oregon all won; Alabama was idle.

(TCU gets exponentially more intriguing with each passing week, but the Football Power Index still only gives the Horned Frogs a 4.0 percent chance of winning out. If and when it gets up to 10 percent, we'll talk.)

Instead, let's take a look at the Cotton Bowl, otherwise known as the game that will pit the top Group of Five team against the best team not selected for the Fiesta, Peach, Rose, Orange and Sugar Bowls.

On the Group of Five front, Tulane has ascended to the throne after UCF's come-from-behind victory over Cincinnati. The Green Wave and Coastal Carolina (both 7-1) are the only Group of Five teams currently with zero or one loss. And thanks to road wins over Kansas State and Houston, Tulane has a substantial leg up on the Chanticleers.

Tulane will host UCF in Week 11 and plays at Cincinnati to conclude the regular season, with the AAC Championship likely to be either Tulane-Cincinnati or Tulane-UCF, so there is quite a bit of football left to be played. But the Green Wave gets the projected edge for the time being.

As far as the AAC champion's opponent in the Cotton Bowl is concerned, it sure looks like it'll be a Pac-12 team.

After removing the 10 teams projected for the other five New Year's Six Bowls, the three Power Five teams projected for the most wins are USC (10.5), UCLA (9.9) and Utah (9.6). It will likely come down to who wins the USC at UCLA game in Week 12—the Trojans would be slightly favored if the game was played this weekend. As such, they get the nod.

Keep an eye on Liberty, though.

The 7-1 Flames made their AP Top 25 debut this week after recently destroying BYU, and they could make a lot of national noise with a road win over Arkansas on Saturday. Maybe it's not enough to ultimately rank ahead of the Pac-12's runner-up, but they really should get to 11-1 if they manage to knock off the Razorbacks.

College Football Playoff

Peach (Dec. 31): No. 1 Georgia (8-0) vs. No. 4 Clemson (8-0)
Fiesta (Dec. 31): No. 2 Ohio State (8-0) vs. No. 3 Tennessee (8-0)

National Championship (Jan. 9): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Probably should've just kept the status quo here in advance of the massive Tennessee-Georgia showdown, but swapping Tennessee and Clemson in the Nos. 3 and 4 spots feels like the right thing to do.

Yes, these are projections, and yes, we're assuming it will be a 13-0 Clemson and an 11-1 Tennessee (with a loss at Georgia this weekend). But even with one loss, there's going to be a strong case for the Volunteers to rank ahead of the undefeated Tigers.

After pummeling Kentucky, Tennessee now has five wins over teams that were ranked at the time of the game, as well as five wins over teams likely to become bowl-eligible. The Vols blew out current AP No. 15 LSU in Baton Rouge, and their three-point win over Alabama is arguably the most impressive win on any resume to date.

Meanwhile, Clemson has been...nothing special.

The Tigers haven't lost, which is swell. But they are merely the 11th-best team in the country, per Bill Connelly's latest SP+ rankings. Their best win (at Wake Forest) lost all sorts of luster when the Demon Deacons committed eight second-half turnovers in a blowout loss to Louisville this past Saturday. And no one left on Clemson's schedule is currently ranked—unless you want to count the inevitable showdown with AP No. 17 North Carolina in the ACC title game.

Clemson's resume has a very "2014 Florida State" feel to it, and while those Seminoles were the only team to go undefeated that season, they ended up with the No. 3 seed.

That said, I do still believe a 13-0 Clemson would rank somewhat comfortably ahead of an 11-1 Michigan. The Wolverines faced just about the weakest nonconference schedule possible, got to face Penn State at home and will get to face Illinois at home.

That team seems great, and would undoubtedly be favored on a neutral field against Clemson. But there's just not going to be a whole lot of strong stuff on that resume unless the Wolverines manage to win at Ohio State for what would be the first time since 2000.

Bowl Games by Conference

Here is the breakdown of bowl projections listed alphabetically by conference. New Year's Six games have been italicized and underlined to help those of you who just scrolled to the bottom to find the marquee bowls.

American Athletic (seven teams): Cincinnati (Fenway), East Carolina (First Responder), Houston (Armed Forces), Memphis (Myrtle Beach), SMU (Independence), Tulane (Cotton), UCF (Military)

Atlantic Coast (10 teams): Clemson (Peach), Duke (Duke's Mayo), Florida State (Gator), Louisville (Military), Miami (Gasparilla), North Carolina (Orange), NC State (Cheez-It), Pittsburgh (Fenway), Syracuse (Holiday), Wake Forest (Sun)

Big 12 (eight teams): Baylor (Guaranteed Rate), Kansas (First Responder), Kansas State (Alamo), Oklahoma (Liberty), Oklahoma State (Cheez-It), TCU (Sugar), Texas (Texas), Texas Tech (Gasparilla)

Big Ten (nine teams): Illinois (ReliaQuest), Iowa (Guaranteed Rate), Maryland (Duke's Mayo), Michigan (Rose), Minnesota (Music City), Ohio State (Fiesta), Penn State (Citrus), Purdue (Pinstripe), Wisconsin (Quick Lane)

Conference USA (six teams): Florida Atlantic (Camellia), Middle Tennessee (New Mexico), North Texas (Boca Raton), UAB (Hawai'i), UTSA (Bahamas), Western Kentucky (New Orleans)

Independents (four teams): Army (Independence), BYU (Armed Forces), Liberty (Birmingham), Notre Dame (Pinstripe)

Mid-American (five teams): Bowling Green (LendingTree), Buffalo (Bahamas), Eastern Michigan (Arizona), Ohio (Famous Idaho Potato), Toledo (Quick Lane)

Mountain West (seven teams): Air Force (Hawai'i), Boise State (LA), Fresno State (New Mexico), San Diego State (Cure), San Jose State (Arizona), UNLV (Frisco), Wyoming (Famous Idaho Potato)

Pac-12 (seven teams): Oregon (Rose), Oregon State (Sun), UCLA (Alamo), USC (Cotton), Utah (Las Vegas), Washington (Holiday), Washington State (LA)

Southeastern (12 teams): Alabama (Sugar), Arkansas (Las Vegas), Florida (Liberty), Georgia (Peach), Kentucky (ReliaQuest), LSU (Citrus), Mississippi State (Gator), Missouri (Music City), Ole Miss (Orange), South Carolina (Texas), Tennessee (Fiesta), Texas A&M (Birmingham)

Sun Belt (seven teams): Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach), Coastal Carolina (LendingTree), Georgia Southern (Cure), Marshall (Camellia), South Alabama (Boca Raton), Southern Miss (Frisco), Troy (New Orleans)

Kerry Miller covers college football, men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.