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Predicting MLB's 10 Biggest Storylines of the 2022-23 Offseason

Joel Reuter

With top-tier free agents Aaron Judge and Trea Turner expected to be joined by opt-out candidates Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Rodón, another exciting MLB offseason awaits.

However, it's not just those elite free agents poised to grab headlines.

Ahead we've highlighted what we expected to be the 10 biggest headlines of the 2022-23 offseason, including free agents, trade candidates and the upcoming Hall of Fame class.

The 2022 season is winding to a close, but the baseball news cycle is year-round, and another busy winter of rumors and transactions is waiting just around the corner.

Another Busy $hortstop Market Awaits

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Last offseason, Corey Seager (10/$325M), Javier Báez (6/$140M), Trevor Story (6/$140M) and Carlos Correa (3/$105.3M) all joined the $100 million contract club.

Story shifted to second base to accommodate signing with the Boston Red Sox, where Xander Bogaerts occupied short, and Correa's deal will wind up being a one-year, $35.1 million contract once he opts out of the final two years, but it was still one of the most active shortstop markets in history.

This winter should be no different.

Aside from Correa rejoining the market, Bogaerts can also opt out of the final four years and $80 million of his contract, a move he is widely expected to make once the offseason begins.

As for more traditional free agents, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are also expected to command top dollar, with Turner perhaps surpassing the deal that Seager signed last winter and Swanson boosting his stock considerably with a career year.

Even at the bottom of the market, José Iglesias and Elvis Andrus represent productive stopgap options for teams looking for a short-term addition.

How Will the Willson Contreras Saga End in Chicago?

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The Chicago Cubs shocked the baseball world when they held on to catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline, despite zero traction on extension talks, looming free agency and fielding a non-contender in 2022.

Does that mean there's a chance he could return?

"He's gone, for sure. The Cubs really had no interest in keeping him," Bob Nightengale of USA Today said on NBC's Sports Sunday last month. "They talked [about] a contract last spring, and that was pretty much it."

He was also a "sure thing" to be traded in July and that didn't happen, so never say never, and the Cubs are expected to be active in trying to build back toward contention this offseason.

Contreras, 30, earned his third All-Star selection in 2022 when he posted a career-high 128 OPS+ with 23 doubles and 22 home runs in a 3.9-WAR season.

He's the best catcher to hit the open market since J.T. Realmuto after the 2020 season, and he has an outside shot at joining Realmuto, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer as the only catchers in MLB history to sign a $100 million deal.

A Record-Setting Deal for Edwin Díaz?

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Edwin Díaz could be headed for a record-setting deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old converted 32 of 35 save chances and had a 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and an eye-popping 17.1 K/9 this season, striking out 118 of the 235 batters he faced while limiting opposing hitters to a .160 batting average.

His age and next-level dominance puts him in a great position to secure the largest payday ever for a relief pitcher.

The total-contract-value record belongs to Aroldis Chapman, who signed a five-year, $85 million deal with the New York Yankees in late 2016, while the top average-annual-value mark belongs to Liam Hendriks on his current three-year, $54 million deal with the Chicago White Sox.

A five-year, $100 million deal seems like a reasonable asking price for Díaz, which would match the length of Chapman's pact and exceed Hendriks' $18 million annual value.

The question is whether the Mets will aggressively try to retain him, or if they'll let someone else pay that premium for his 2022 campaign.

The Prize of This Year's International Market is Kodai Senga

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Outfielder Seiya Suzuki was the hot name who made the jump from Japan last offseason, signing a five-year, $85 million deal with the Chicago Cubs and putting together a solid 2-WAR rookie season.

This year it's a pitcher who is expected to make waves on the international market.

Right-hander Kodai Senga has been the ace of the staff for the Softbank Hawks the past several seasons, and he was as dominant as ever in 2022, going 11-6 with a 1.89 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 159 strikeouts in 148 innings.

The 29-year-old has an opt-out in his contract with the Hawks that he is expected to exercise, per Sankei Sports (h/t MLB Trade Rumors), and he'll be an unrestricted international free agent, meaning he won't be subject to the posting system or bonus-pool restrictions.

With a mid-90s fastball and a lethal splitter among his four-pitch repertoire, he offers a middle-of-the-rotation profile and the potential for a bit more. That should be enough for him to secure a lucrative multiyear deal this winter.

Expect A Barrage Shohei Ohtani Trade Rumors

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"The Angels are showing no appetite to discuss [Shohei] Ohtani at present, say several teams who have checked in," wrote SNY MLB insider Andy Martino this week.

That won't stop the rumor mill from churning.

With owner Arte Moreno preparing to sell the team, there is a lot in flux with the Angels, and trading one of their most valuable assets before selling the team might not make a ton of sense.

That said, Ohtani made it clear he did not enjoy another season of losing in 2022, and with free agency looming after the 2023 season, flipping him now might be the best way to maximize his value if extending his deal looks unlikely.

The front office avoided arbitration with a one-year, $30 million deal for next season, but locking in his salary figure could make it more likely he's moved, as teams value cost certainty when assembling their roster during the offseason.

Whether it's just speculation or there is some movement toward a trade, expect to hear Ohtani's name early and often in the rumor mill this offseason.

4 Hall of Fame Pitchers Will Look for a New Contract

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Four of the greatest pitchers of this generation will look for a new home this winter.

First things first: Jacob deGrom will need to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract to join this year's free-agent class, but all signs point to his doing that. The 34-year-old has pitched just 224.1 innings over the past three seasons, but when healthy he still has a strong case for being the best pitcher on the planet, and his resume is Hall of Fame-worthy.

Justin Verlander signed a one-year, $25 million contract with the Houston Astros that includes a matching $25 million player option for 2023, but he's a safe bet to decline that option after putting together a Cy Young-caliber season in his return from Tommy John surgery.

Left-hander Clayton Kershaw can no longer be counted on to chew through 200-plus innings each season, but he's still elite when healthy. The 34-year-old went 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 137 strikeouts in 126.1 innings while making 22 starts for the second year in a row.

Finally, workhorse Zack Greinke is a free agent once again after signing a one-year, $13 million deal with the Kansas City Royals last winter. He finished with a 3.68 ERA in 137 innings in his return to the team that drafted him, and while he is no longer a front-line option, he can still be a valuable veteran innings eater.

Expect Kershaw to find his way back to the Dodgers once again on another one-year deal, but deGrom, Verlander and Greinke will all be hot commodities in a market that is thin on starters with a proven track record.

The Orioles Are Finally Ready to Spend

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After losing 110 games in 2021, the Baltimore Orioles assembled one of the largest win-total improvements in recent memory this season, finishing 83-79 and hanging around in the wild-card race into September.

This is only the beginning.

"Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll," Orioles general manager Mike Elias told MLB Network Radio. "... The success ... has only cemented those plans."

With rising stars in catcher Adley Rutschman and infielder Gunnar Henderson, holdovers Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle all holding down everyday spots, and strong second-half performances from Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish in the starting rotation, there are some solid pieces to build around.

The payroll was just $43.7 million on Opening Day this season, per Cot's Contracts, compared to a high-water mark of $164.3 million at the start of the 2017 season, so there's a truckload of money to spend if they're ready to go all-in on this group.

Adding a front-line starter will be the No. 1 priority, but they could also get involved in the top-tier shortstop market if they view third base as Henderson's long-term defensive home. They also have the prospects to make a splash on the trade market.

Another Free-Spending Offseason for the Mets

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The New York Mets dominated the headlines last offseason when they signed Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar while also swinging a deal to acquire Chris Bassitt from the Oakland Athletics.

There's work to do once again this winter.

With Jacob deGrom expected to opt out of his deal and the status of Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker all uncertain via contract options, the rotation might need to be rebuilt behind Scherzer.

They are also poised to lose center fielder Brandon Nimmo, closer Edwin Díaz and top setup relievers Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo, so the bullpen will need to be addressed in a big way as well.

Given the spending power that owner Steve Cohen has brought to the front office, it's also worth wondering if the Mets will get involved in the Aaron Judge sweepstakes and plug him into the gap in center field.

Regardless of what they do, expect the Mets to cut checks left and right once again this winter as they try to get over the hump in the push for title contention.

A Shake-Up is Coming on the Hall of Fame Ballot

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With Barry Bonds (66.0%), Roger Clemens (65.2%) and Curt Schilling (58.6%) all falling off the MLB Hall of Fame ballot after 10 years of eligibility, we could see a wave of holdovers get a major boost in balloting support this year.

Voters are limited to voting for 10 players each year, so for more than half of the voting community, three slots just opened on their ballots.

Some of those votes could be scooped up by first-time eligible player Carlos Beltran, but it should also mean a healthy spike in support for Scott Rolen (63.2%), Todd Helton (52.0%), Billy Wagner (51.0%) and Andruw Jones (41.4%), who all took a step forward last year.

All four are worthy of taking their place in Cooperstown.

The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will also consider players who have fallen off the ballot since 1980, with Fred McGriff, Kenny Lofton, Sammy Sosa, Bonds, Clemens and Schilling among the players eligible to be reviewed by the committee for the first time.

Players who previously appeared on the Contemporary Era ballot include Dwight Evans, Dave Parker, Lou Whitaker, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser, Joe Carter, Mark McGwire, Ron Guidry and Dan Quisenberry.

We could see a wave of players on the fringe of Hall of Fame recognition finally get the call when balloting results are announced in January.

Yankees vs. Giants for Aaron Judge?

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Could it wind up being a two-horse race to secure the services of Aaron Judge?

Last week, we ranked the most likely landing spots for the prolific slugger, with the top five shaping up as follows:

1. New York Yankees
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. New York Mets
5. Chicago Cubs

A person "with knowledge of the Giants' thinking" told Randy Miller of NJ.com that the team is "prepared to spend whatever it takes" to sign Judge this offseason. The Giants have the added appeal of playing about 90 minutes from Linden, California, where Judge grew up and his parents and in-laws still live.

The Dodgers can never be counted out on a top-tier free agent, and both the Mets and Cubs also have the spending power and a need in the outfield, but it looks like Yankees vs. Giants with everyone else on the periphery.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.

   

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