It isn't how you start in the NFL. It's how you finish.
While some of the major awards that will be handed out at the beginning of the season might seem wrapped up already, there's still plenty of time for seismic shifts in the NFL landscape.
Just ask Kyler Murray, who was an MVP favorite around this time last year before the Cardinals imploded down the stretch. He didn't even wind up as a finalist for the award.
Week 9 marks the halfway point of the season, so as we head into that midpoint, now is a good time to look at each of the major award races and identify a dark-horse candidate who could emerge over the second half of the season.
We'll define a dark horse as anyone outside of the top five of the current odds provided by Vegas Insider, which are accurate as of Monday morning.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
The Favorites
- Kenneth Walker III +225
- Dameon Pierce +300
- Chris Olave +700
- Drake London +1400
- Brian Robinson Jr. +1400
Breece Hall likely had the inside track on this award. Unfortunately, the ACL tear that ended his season effectively took him out of the race.
Walker and Pierce have taken over the role of favorites. As the lead running backs for the Seahawks and Texans, respectively, they have the benefit of somewhat guaranteed production.
However, Garrett Wilson (+1800) gives the Jets a fighting chance to still have the Rookie of the Year on offense.
The wide receiver got off to a strong start of the season with Joe Flacco under center, recording 18 catches for 204 yards in his first three games. He notched just 10 catches for 100 yards over the next four games, which coincided with the return of second-year signal-caller Zach Wilson.
However, the rookie's Week 8 performance against the Patriots could be a signal that the big numbers are coming back. The Ohio State product caught six of his seven targets for 115 yards.
Seth Walder of ESPN noted that Wilson was fifth in ESPN's "open score" metric through seven weeks, which utilizes player tracking to asses "the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted."
With Zach Wilson finally finding the first-round pick for big plays against the Patriots, now could be the time to invest in Garrett Wilson to take home Rookie of the Year honors.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: S Jaquan Brisker, Chicago Bears
The Favorites
- Ahmad Gardner +220
- Tariq Woolen +333
- Kayvon Thibodeaux +1000
- Aidan Hutchinson +1200
- Devin Lloyd +1200
A safety has not won Defensive Rookie of the Year since Mark Carrier in 1990 with the Chicago Bears. Still, Jaquan Brisker (+5000) is the best bet of the longshots to take home the hardware in 2022.
Above all, the honor rewards splash plays. That's why it primarily goes to edge-rushers and linebackers with high-impact plays. However, the availability of coverage statistics and Brisker's own penchant for big plays could help him break the trend.
The Penn State product was tied for the highest-graded rookie by PFF in Week 7. He allowed just two receptions on five targets for 11 yards and had a key interception to seal a win for the Bears over the Patriots.
What really gives Brisker a chance to sneak into the race by the end of the season is his versatility as a coverage safety who can also blitz. He registered his third sack of the season against the Cowboys in Week 8, setting a Bears franchise record for a rookie defensive back and tying Drake Jackson for the second-most sacks among rookies.
Going into the matchup versus Dallas, Brisker allowed just eight completions on 22 targets for 103 yards and a passer rating of 33.0. That's a dominant stat line. If he can pair that with even more QB takedowns, he's deserving of consideration.
Offensive Player of the Year: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
The Favorites
- Jalen Hurts +500
- Justin Jefferson +600
- Lamar Jackson +800
- Cooper Kupp +800
- Stefon Diggs +800
While the MVP award has become a de facto quarterback award, the Offensive Player of the Year accolade gives other skill players hope. A running back or wide receiver has won the award in the last three years.
This year, any running back or wide receiver is going to have to stave off Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, who are not only playing great as passers but are also major factors in their team's running game.
Rhamondre Stevenson (not listed in the top 16) is emerging as the kind of back who can challenge them, though.
The second-year back was stuck in a timeshare with Damien Harris in the first four weeks of the season. He played in 62 percent or fewer of the snaps in every game as the Patriots got off to a 1-3 start.
Since then, he's played at least 77 percent of the snaps, is now seventh in total scrimmage yards and the Patriots have won three out of their last four games.
His ability to break off big runs even when the blocking in front of him is suboptimal is one of the few things the Patriots offense has going for it right now. He was responsible for 143 of the unit's 288 yards against the Jets in Week 8.
Offensive Player of the Year typically goes to a player who carries his offense. Stevenson is quickly becoming that player for New England.
Defensive Player of the Year: Edge Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles
The Favorites
- Micah Parsons -120
- Nick Bosa +750
- Myles Garrett +900
- Aaron Donald +1600
- Maxx Crosby +1600
The fact that Micah Parsons is under even money this early in the season is a testament to just how dominant he is. It's his award to lose over the second half of the season, but there's still plenty of football left to play.
The award has typically been reserved for pass-rushers in the last decade. Going back to 2012, Luke Kuechly and Stephon Gilmore are the only two non-defensive tackles or edge-rushers to win the award.
The most productive pass-rushers are just about accounted for in the current favorites, but someone lurking just behind such as Haason Reddick (not listed in the top 17) is an intriguing pick.
Reddick was relatively quiet in the first two games of his Eagles tenure. He had no sacks and just four tackles. But lately, he's caught fire. He's notched 5.5 sacks and continues to be one of the more underappreciated pass-rushers in the league.
He's one of two players with 10 games in which he has at least 1.5 sacks since 2020, according to Jeff Skversky.
In addition to his sacks, Reddick has forced three fumbles and has at least three pressures that have caused turnovers, per Next Gen Stats.
That kind of impact on a team that could potentially have the NFL's best record makes Reddick a sleeper to challenge Parsons by the end of the season.
Coach of the Year: Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
The Favorites
- Nick Sirianni +125
- Brian Daboll +250
- Robert Saleh +800
- Kevin O'Connell +1200
- Mike McDaniel +1600
Despite 11 playoff appearances, six division titles and a Super Bowl in his NFL head coaching career, Pete Carroll (+2000) has never been named the Coach of the Year. He only won the college football version of the award once despite being at the helm of the USC dynasty of the early 2000s.
So maybe it will take Carroll leading an underdog squad to the playoffs to finally add the award to his resume.
When the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, they were presumed to be in tank mode. Instead, they are on top of the NFC West through eight weeks.
They're doing it with a 32-year-old Geno Smith at quarterback; multiple rookies at key positions, including two rookie offensive tackles (Charles Cross on the left and Abe Lucas on the right), Kenneth Walker III at running back and Tariq Woolen at corner; and without star safety Jamal Adams.
The Seahawks are relevant because of their ability to put players in a position to succeed and develop them in a way that has produced immediate results.
That's great coaching, and Carroll should be right up there with the favorites for the award this year.
MVP: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The Favorites
- Josh Allen +125
- Patrick Mahomes +400
- Jalen Hurts +450
- Lamar Jackson +1200
- Joe Burrow +1600
Ultimately, the NFL MVP usually goes to the quarterback on the best team and is largely a narrative award. That's why through eight weeks, it looks like it's a three-man race between Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
They are on elite teams right now and are putting up the kind of stats to warrant the trophy.
But it's fair to wonder where Tua Tagovailoa (+8000) would be on the list if it weren't for the injury that cost him two-and-a-half games. He was carted off against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football and missed the next two weeks against the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.
It's no coincidence that those are the three games the Dolphins lost this season. Otherwise, the team is 5-0 in games Tagovailoa has started and finished.
The good news is that Tagovailoa had his best game against the Lions in Week 8, as he racked up 401 total yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Dolphins have given him a great supporting cast highlighted by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Tagovailoa makes plenty of plays on his own. Going into the week, he was PFF's highest-graded quarterback when trailing.
The difference in the 5-3 Dolphins when Tagovailoa is on the field and off it makes a strong case he will enter the MVP race in the back half of the season.
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