The most important decision an NFL franchise will ever make is how it invests in the quarterback position.
A solution behind center defines whether a team can have sustained success or whether it continues to spin its wheels year after year.
The Indianapolis Colts serve as the best possible example. The organization benefited from two decades worth of stellar quarterback play from Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
The latter unexpectedly retired before the start of the 2019 campaign, though, and Indianapolis has spent each of the last four seasons with a different starter, going 29-24-1.
They're a mediocre franchise with one standout season, thanks to Philip Rivers' swan song. Now, it finds itself in the same position as before—needing a signal-caller who can provide stability.
Indianapolis may be the most obvious case of quarterback turnover in recent years, but several other franchises are staring down yet another significant move at the game's most crucial position.
The number could grow depending on how a few situations are handled next offseason.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Tom Brady's team until he finally decides to retire. No reason to jump ahead until his future is determined.
The Tennessee Titans' Ryan Tannehill and Minnesota Vikings' Kirk Cousins aren't the most exciting starting options, but both are competent enough to lead a winning squad.
Daniel Jones has found new life in New York with Brian Daboll as his head coach. The Giants could easily place the franchise tag on the 2019 sixth overall pick after this season.
Geno Smith, meanwhile, has been a revelation with the Seattle Seahawks this season and could be in line for a big payday from his current team.
The incoming crop of quarterback talent is far superior to this year's class, too. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Alabama's Bryce Young, Kentucky's Will Levis and Tennessee's Hendon Hooker are potential first-round projections.
Waiting to address a lagging quarterback setup is never the solution. The following five squads will go into next offseason knowing something needs to be done or fall further behind the rest of the league.
Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers
Whatever talent Baker Mayfield showed earlier in his career seems to have disappeared. He no longer looks like a starting-caliber quarterback, let alone a former No. 1 overall draft pick.
Mayfield ranks 23rd in passing yardage (962), 29th in yards per attempt (6.3), and 32nd in completion percentage (54.9), quarterback rating (71.8) and QBR (16.6). His four touchdown passes are offset by four interceptions.
He's not the same quarterback who came into the league as a spitfire and threw a then-record 27 touchdown passes as a rookie. He's also two years removed from helping lead the Cleveland Browns to their first postseason berth in 18 years.
Some might argue that Mayfield is in a new system after being acquired by the Carolina Panthers in July. The franchise is a mess and is the first one to fire its head coach this season.
Even so, the same missed opportunities, poor mechanics and footwork, and consistent mistakes still plague the Heisman Trophy winner. Simply put, he's been a disaster as Carolina's quarterback and now looks like a former high pick who's broken beyond repair.
To make matters worse, Mayfield is currently dealing with a high-ankle sprain. The 27-year-old quarterback is expected to miss a few weeks because of the injury, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.
Fortunately for Carolina, they are capable of moving on from Mayfield and Sam Darnold, by extension, this offseason since neither is under contract beyond this year. The Panthers currently own next year's No. 1 overall pick if the season continues to play out as it has through the first five weeks.
Ohio State's C.J. Stroud could very well be the quarterback David Tepper has been searching for since he took ownership of the team in 2018.
Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Davis Mills outperformed last season's expectations when the third-round rookie took over as the Houston Texans' starting quarterback. As a result, the organization gave him a chance this year to seize the moment and become its franchise signal-caller.
Mills hasn't looked the part this year.
"I think overall as a team, we just need to be more consistent with our performance. ... To put Davis [Mills] in that category, I think it's more emblematic of the team more than anything else and making it about one player," general manager Nick Caserio said in his press conference on Tuesday when asked about his quarterback.
The results aren't entirely Mills' fault. The Texans remain in transition during Lovie Smith's first year at the helm. The roster is a work in progress with a heavy reliance on younger players, including running back Dameon Pierce, wide receiver Nico Collins and left guard Kenyon Green.
Eventually, these things are nothing more than excuses. Young quarterbacks placed in the right situation should excel. Mills completion percentage, quarterback rating and QBR are all down from last year.
Most importantly, the Texans look like a team earmarked for a top-five draft pick, where a quarterback seems like a logical choice.
Mills may have surprised to some degree, but he hasn't done enough to shut down the thought of a replacement. He's not a first-round pick who'll be given plenty of time to develop and mature as the starter. Instead, last year's 67th overall draft pick showed some promise but isn't guaranteed anything beyond this year.
Houston does own a pair of first-round picks, thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade. The 1-3-1 Texans have more than enough ammunition to target one of the top prospects for the 2023 draft class if the team is already bad enough to earn a top selection.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
Another year of Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill as the New Orleans Saints' top quarterback options can't happen.
The team can release Winston next offseason, designate him as a post-June 1 cut an save $12.8 million, per Over The Cap. Dalton isn't under contract after this season. Hill can continue his transition to tight end.
However, the 2-3 Saints aren't in a great position for an immediate upgrade. The team doesn't own a first-round pick, thanks to this year's swap of selections with the Philadelphia Eagles. As per usual, the Saints will start next year's offseason deep into the red before the front office works its magic to get under the salary cap.
Those two instances may serve as obstacles for upgrading at quarterback. Even so, general manager Mickey Loomis must look at every available option.
Winston hasn't been healthy since taking over for Drew Brees. Last season, the 2015 No. 1 overall pick suffered a torn ACL in Week 8. This year, the 28-year-old quarterback is nursing four fractures in his back.
Maybe the Saints make a run at a Geno Smith in free agency or trade for a functional option, like Jacoby Brissett. Whatever the case may be, the Saints are stuck in limbo with an 11-11 record since Brees retired.
Loomis tried to make a big play this year with the acquisitions of wide receiver Chris Olave, left tackle Trevor Penning, wide receiver Jarvis Landry and safeties Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu.
Instead, the Saints are wasting significant talent because they're simply not good enough at quarterback. Some type of change is necessary.
Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons
A cleansing occurred in Atlanta this year when the Falcons decided to move on from the likes of quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Russell Gage, and linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Deion Jones.
In total, the team is going through the season while carrying an NFL record of $77.5 million in dead cap space, according to Falcoholic's Kevin Knight.
The Falcons currently own the league's second-most salary-cap space for the 2023 season, per Spotrac. The financial flexibility will provide a clean slate for an organization that's clearly in flux, starting with the quarterback position.
Marcus Mariota joined the Falcons on a two-year, $18.8 million free-agent contract this offseason. His signing was seen as nothing more than a placeholder, and Atlanta can release its current starter next offseason and save $12 million.
A potential switch behind center is what really needs to happen between now and the end of the end of the regular season.
The Falcons sunk the No.74 overall pick into Desmond Ridder this offseason. In doing so, Ridder became the second-highest-drafted quarterback in the entire class.
Obviously, a third-round selection isn't guaranteed anything, but the Falcons are clearly trying to figure out what direction the franchise will take after this season. A chance to see Ridder on the field will provide a fully informed decision if/when the team decides its plans for next year.
As of now, the expectation should be a heavy investment in the position.
The Falcons aren't performing badly overall. They own a 2-3 record and have some fun pieces to watch on a weekly basis—particularly wide receiver Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. However, the team can't go into another season with Mariota and Ridder as its only quarterback options.
A potential top-10 draft pick should signal the official changeover from Ryan to whatever the franchise will be in 2023 and beyond.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
Round and round. What comes around goes around. The Indianapolis Colts have a Ratt...er, quarterback problem.
A sixth different quarterback in six straight years could realistically open next season as the starter. The organization had high hopes for Matt Ryan after acquiring the 37-year-old veteran from the Atlanta Falcons this offseason.
"I really feel strongly that Matt is what the franchise needs,” owner Jim Irsay said in March, per the Indianapolis Star's Joel A. Erickson. "I really think we have an opportunity, and he’s young enough, to win a world championship with him. We feel like we have that capability."
As the Colts' starter, the team is off to a 2-2-1 start with the league's lowest-scoring offense at an embarrassing 13.8 points per contest. Ryan isn't the sole reason for this putrid production, though.
The offense line's protection scheme has been disastrous. The wide receivers, beyond Michael Pittman Jr., need to find their way. The run game—which has already seen Jonathan Taylor miss a game to injury—doesn't have anywhere near the room to operate as it did a year. These things don't necessarily fall on the quarterback.
Yet Ryan hasn't helped matters, particularly with an NFL record of 11 fumbles through the first five games. At this stage of his career, the four-time Pro Bowl selection can't overcome the Colts' offensive deficiencies. Furthermore, the 15-year veteran hasn't been the stabilizing force the front office and ownership hoped he would be.
At this point, why delay the inevitable?
Sure, Ryan is under contract for another season. That's not enough reason, though. He may be a former league MVP, but he's nothing more than a bridge at this point in his career.
The clock is ticking in Indianapolis, and the organization must find a solution after years of turnover. An investment in a first-round quarterback is the right decision for the franchise to finally get off the treadmill.
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