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Why NBA Insiders Don't Expect Draymond Green Punch Will Force Divorce

Eric Pincus

On Wednesday, when word got out that Draymond Green and Jordan Poole had been involved in an altercation, the fog of competing reporting left much to the imagination.

The most definitive report, from The Athletic's Shams Charania, Anthony Slater and Marcus Thompson, described the incident as a "chest-to-chest interaction" with Green "forcefully [striking] Poole."

On Friday, we realized sometimes words fall short. The actual footage of Green throwing the punch (as leaked to TMZ Sports) was a lot to process. The video of Green decking Poole illustrated the difference between reading a report and witnessing what happened.

According to sources close to Green, the longtime Warriors power forward is contrite and "definitely upset with himself" after the in-practice fight with Jordan Poole. "It was not right," the source said.

But the same source also noted this kind of incident is not uncommon: "This is child's play. It happens. He was wrong, but it happens."

That may be true, but this situation is different, as longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein aptly noted.

The questions now turn to Green and Warriors decision-makers, who have plenty of history dealing with Green’s atypical behavior.

Rival league executives and agents are skeptical this incident—however ugly it looked in video—will force Warriors general manager Bob Myers and Joe Lacob’s ownership group to do anything drastic.

Sources close to Green are confident he and the team will be able to move past this and continue their partnership.

"They'll ask [Coach Steve] Kerr to fix this in the locker room. He's among the best coaches in the league at dealing with people," one executive said.

If you’re hoping this breaks up the dynasty, league execs and agents aren’t exactly fanning the flames of that narrative. Don’t hold your breath for a Draymond Green trade, either.

Both players are extension-eligible before the start of the season, and there’s a way to pay both handsomely. Poole will be a restricted free agent in July if he's not rewarded in the next week or two.

Green has a $27.6 million player option for next season. Unless he opts out, any extension this year must come before the season. If he opts out, he can extend as late as June 30 but can't earn less than $27.6 million in the first year of a new deal.

If that's the case, Green is better off finishing his contract through 2023-24 while exploring his options as an unrestricted free agent.

"If they lose Dray, it'll be because of the money more than the punch," an agent said. "Maybe I'm underselling the incident, but [if they don't want to pay him], I think that was the case before the punch too."

The Miami Heat recently extended Tyler Herro at $120-130 million (depending on incentives) over four seasons, which most NBA cap gurus are using as a barometer for Poole.

"I think they get something done," the agent said. "Between four years, $100 million and what Herro got."

A different agent suggested the Warriors were offering Green $50-60 million for three years.

Another question that came up Friday is whether the Warriors would consider trading Green before they have to decide on an extension. But that seems unlikely given how the recent news impacts his market value and that Green's on-court value is very specific to how the Warriors play. He's a 6'6" "big" who isn't a prolific scorer—not a natural fit for just any team.

"The Warriors aren't the same without Draymond," another executive said. "They can't defend without him."

"I don't think it'd be easy to trade him right now [given the incident]. They're going to try [to keep both]. Poole is obviously the priority," one agent said. "Draymond and even Klay [Thompson] were side-eyeing Poole, but that's not surprising since he's passed both of them in terms of value on the team."

The argument that Poole has surpassed both in terms of value could be as simple as a combination of his age and playmaking abilities. The 23-year-old Poole established himself as one of the league's most creative scorers last season, averaging 18.5 points per game. Both Thompson and Green are 32.

Many executives around the league agreed that the Warriors seem to be committed to the youth movement—which includes Poole—while trying to maintain their championship status quo.

Some execs and agents polled believe that the Warriors will eventually try to replace what Green does defensively over time, given his age.

In any case, the punch doesn't change the team's trajectory in the immediate future. This group will likely have to stick it out for at least another season, through thick and thin.

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.

   

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