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Did the Boston Celtics Get It Right Signing Blake Griffin over Carmelo Anthony?

Andy Bailey

Shortly after they acquired Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari, it felt like the Boston Celtics were in the middle of one of the NBA's best offseasons.

Since then, Gallinari has gone down with a torn ACL (suffered at a FIBA World Cup qualifier in August), and incumbent starting center Robert Williams III underwent surgery on his left knee that could cost him months of this season.

With the frontcourt decimated by injuries, it was clear that Boston needed another big. On Friday, we got the answer on who that big is.

News of Blake Griffin's signing with Boston came as a bit of a surprise. Little reporting had preceded it, and Carmelo Anthony being a Celtic, at one point, was gaining "traction," according to Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe.

It was easy to see how he'd fit in Boston after averaging 13.3 points and 2.2 threes per game while shooting 37.5 percent from three for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2021-22.

In fact, he might've fit even better than Gallo.

He wasn't the choice, though. And despite Griffin's significant issues with durability over the last three seasons, it's not that difficult to see why Boston went with him.

First of all, most of the Melo rumors were circulating prior to news of Williams' most recent surgery. Not having him changed the Celtics' needs.

"My guess is Boston went with Blake Griffin over Carmelo Anthony because Griffin has shown he can defend at the 5," Spotrac's Keith Smith wrote. "Melo would have been more of a Gallo replacement, but Griffin fills a bigger hole on the roster as currently constructed."

Griffin's versatility is the key here. At 6'9", he's bigger than Anthony (6'7") and played over 80 percent of his minutes as a center last season. That positional shift didn't rob him of his point-forward skills, though.

Over the last three campaigns, Griffin has recorded 4.2 assists per 75 possessions. The passing and playmaking he can bring makes him a more interesting theoretical fit than either Melo or Gallo.

Last season, the Celtics were 12th in the league in passes made and second in secondary assists (or hockey assists). Despite the slashing of Jaylen Brown and the high-end talent of Jayson Tatum as a one-on-one scorer, ball movement was a key ingredient for an offense that finished in a tie for eighth in 2021-22.

Griffin can add to the variety and volume of passing from this roster.

Of course, that may come at a cost. During this aforementioned three-year stretch, Griffin has hit just 29.3 percent of his three-point attempts. Anthony, who's at 38.9 percent from deep during the last three seasons, would have undoubtedly been the better floor-spacer.

Boston probably hasn't conceded that Griffin will remain a sub-30 percent outside shooter, though. From 2014-15 through 2018-19, Griffin attempted 3.4 threes per game and made 35.4 percent of those shots.

The shot never graduated from its clunky-looking form, but he'd gotten consistent enough to at least force defenders to pay attention to him out there. Even if the injuries have sapped Griffin of some of his athleticism, there should still be time for the 33-year old to recapture (or improve upon) that aspect of his game.

The more important consideration, though, is on the defensive end.

Over the last two seasons, Griffin has an exactly average defensive box plus/minus of 0.0. As he's transitioned away from the role of a top scoring option, he's committed more fully to moving on defense and making his mark on that end.

Melo, meanwhile, is five years older than Griffin and has a minus-1.1 defensive box plus/minus over the same stretch (327th among 382 qualified players).

Basketball Reference cautions against using defensive box plus/minus as a definitive measure of a player's ability there, but that gap is noteworthy. It also matches (or at least supports) the eye test.

Griffin is taking defense more seriously than he once did (perhaps because of survival instincts). He's a superior passer to Anthony. And he has a willingness and ability to play either big position, which makes him something of a replacement for both Gallo and Williams minutes.

Boston certainly could've sold a Melo signing, mostly because of his recent shooting numbers, but it's not hard to see why it went with Griffin.

   

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