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Fantasy Football 2022: Panic Meter on Early Season Busts

Alex Ballentine

Week 3 can feel like a tipping point in fantasy football. For those sitting at 0-2 two weeks in, it's hard not to panic.

Success in fantasy requires knowing when to start a player, when to hold them on the bench and when to unload them all together.

Those decisions become even harder when it's one of your early draft picks who isn't performing. With just two weeks to analyze, it can be tough to figure out what's real and what just happens to be a disappointing start.

Here, we'll take a look at several disappointments thus far and just how panicked managers should be about their prospects moving forward.

TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith doesn't care about your fantasy team. At least not as it pertains to making sure that Kyle Pitts gets the ball.

Pitts managers might feel like Smith is concocting a personal vendetta against fantasy players. The second-year tight end saw just three targets in a 31-27 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, bringing down two of them for 19 yards. It was the exact same stat line that had those who drafted Pitts frustrated in Week 1.

Smith let the media know that he's not playing fantasy football after the game. He's just trying to win football games.

That's exactly why managers shouldn't be worried too much just yet. Pitts saw seven targets in Week 1. According to Player Profiler, he's still third in Air Yards Share with nearly a quarter of the team's intended air yards.

It hasn't led to fantasy glory yet, but Pitts is still one of the best weapons they have in their arsenal. He's going to be a priority in the offense and he's too good to not produce when given the opportunity.

The chemistry between him and Marcus Mariota is taking longer than expected to develop, but it will be there.

Panic Meter: Low

RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Derrick Henry was a consensus top-five pick in fantasy drafts this offseason but there was always a level of risk involved with his selection.

The 28-year-old back has been a force, but he's also been an anomaly. He lead the league in carries in 2019 and 2020 and was well on his way to doing it again in 2021 with 219 in eight games before a foot injury cost him the rest of the season.

In total, Henry has 1,435 career carries.

Using that history as a backdrop his start to the 2022 season should be concerning. Coming off the foot injury he just hasn't looked like the same running back.

As Bill Barnwell of ESPN noted, Henry's efficiency was concerning even in Week 1 when he put up a respectable 82 yards on 21 carries. According to Next Gen Stats, an average back would have rushed for 93 yards and four first downs. Henry ran for just one.

There are those who are going to view Henry as a buy-low candidate. His name recognition and peak ability are tantalizing and he gets favorable matchups. The Raiders and Colts are both in the top 10 for most fantasy points ceded to running backs.

This isn't a matchup problem, though. There's a real possibility that the foot injury and wear-and-tear of being a high-volume back is finally catching up to Henry.

Panic Meter: High

RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Set Number: X164165 TK1

Ezekiel Elliott has finished as a top 12 running back in point-per-reception formats in every year of his career. Even when he hasn't been the most efficient back his sheer volume has still made him an RB1.

That streak is in serious jeopardy this year.

Through two games Elliott is 48th in PPR points among running backs. Elliott has led the Cowboys backfield with 25 carries, but he's averaging the same 4.2 yards per carry he did last season when he played through a partially torn PCL.

Anyone who has followed the dynamic between Elliott and Tony Pollard could see there was danger of Pollard eating into Zeke's role. Elliott might lead the team in carries, but it's Pollard who has seen more targets (nine to four) and is averaging more yards per touch (5.7 to 3.6)

Elliott's role isn't going to go away. Team owner Jerry Jones was sure to back Elliott in a radio interview on 105.3 The Fan (h/t Dallas Morning News). When asked about how he would like to see Elliott used he said:

"I want to make sure that we give Zeke the load that the team deserves to have from him."

Translation: We've paid Elliott way too much money to not be a focal point of the offense.

The volume may still be there for Elliott to wind up as a low-end RB2, but the more likely outcome is Pollard taking over a much bigger role as the season wears on.

Panic Meter: High

QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Moving out from under Pete Carroll and his play-calling was supposed to liberate Russell Wilson and make him a fantasy football star once more. Thus far, that's not how the Wilson era has worked for the Denver Broncos.

Wilson's ADP this season was QB10, making him a weekly starter for most managers that took him. However, his start last week was cause for concern. He connected on just 14 of his 31 pass attempts for 219 yards and a touchdown with an interception.

Wilson's days of bringing rushing production to the table seem to be behind him. So his path to fantasy viability has to be paved by gaudy passing stats.

The 340 passing yards he had in Week 1 are a good indicator he can get there. But the lack of touchdowns has lowered his ceiling at this point. He has thrown just one a week to this point.

To make matters worse, Wilson could be without Jerry Jeudy as he suffered a rib/shoulder injury in Week 2.

Mostly, this looks like the product of a quarterback settling in with a new coach and new personnel. Wilson is going to have his opportunities to let loose and even without Jeudy, Courtland Sutton can be a No. 1 receiver and the Broncos have other weapons.

Panic Meter: Medium

QB Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/Butch Dill

Tom Brady finished the 2021 season as the third-highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football last season. Yet, he was drafted this year as QB8.

That was despite the fact the Bucs added Russell Gage and Julio Jones to a receiving corps that already included Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

In theory, that seemed like a bargain to drafters. In reality, through the first two weeks, he's not even living up to his value at that price. Brady has scored just 20.8 points in the first two games.

The Bucs offense as a whole has not been as explosive as they have over the last two seasons. The Cowboys held them to 19 points while the Saints frustrated them to the point where Mike Evans was suspended one game for his role in an altercation with Marshon Lattimore and the Saints defense.

It's worth noting that Brady's output against the Saints this time was actually better than the 5.8 points he put up against them in their Week 15 matchup last year. Reading too much into his results against their defense is not a good idea.

The Cowboys defense also deserves credit for being a good unit under Dan Quinn.

Brady is 45 years old and everyone's skills decline at some point. There is some reason for concern, but it's hard not to see Brady being a top-10 fantasy quarterback with all the weapons at his disposal over the course of a season.

Panic Meter: Low

WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

When the Dallas Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper this offseason it really felt like it was time for CeeDee Lamb to take over. At least that's the story his ADP told. He was taken 18th overall on average as the eighth receiver off the board.

Through two weeks he has just nine catches for 104 yards to show for it. He ranks 55th in PPR scoring.

That's not what managers had in mind when spending a second-round pick on the receiver. But there's some good news for those hoping he turns things around.

First, the target share is living up to the hype. Lamb has seen 11 targets in both Week 1 and Week 2. He only saw 7.5 per game last year.

The problem is that only 13 of his 22 targets have been catchable, per Player Profiler. Cooper Rush may have helped the Cowboys get a win in Week 2, but he isn't necessarily helping Lamb reach his fantasy potential.

Lamb is eighth among all receivers in air yards but ranks 81st in target quality rating.

In other words, Lamb's volume and opportunity are elite. He just needs better quarterback play which should be coming as Rush gets more comfortable and Dak Prescott works towards getting healthy.

Panic Meter: Low

WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/Josie Lepe

From a fantasy football perspective, DK Metcalf was one of the biggest losers of the offseason.

Metcalf's freakish athleticism and size make him one of the best deep-ball receivers in the league. He was a perfect pairing with Russell Wilson, who throws one of the best deep balls in the game. It's why Metcalf was sixth in the league in air yards in 2021, per Player Profiler.

So while Geno Smith has completed 81 percent of his passes in his first two starts, his conservative play style is not doing Metcalf any favors.

This year, Metcalf is just 68th in the league in air yards with an average depth of target of 5.5 yards.

It's shoehorning Metcalf into a role he wasn't meant to play. Instead of being the field-stretching deep threat, he's a possession receiver who isn't even getting first downs on most of his catches. He has three on 11 receptions.

The problem is that nothing in the offense other than Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is optimized with a vertical passing game. They have a young offensive line featuring two rookie tackles and a quarterback who is best served to get the ball out quickly anyway.

Metcalf will have a few big games, but these first two weeks are likely a harbinger of his reality in 2022.

Panic Meter: High

   

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