D.J. Uiagalelei and No. 5 Clemson have a big test at No. 21 Wake Forest in Week 4. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

College Football Picks: Week 4 Predictions for Every Game

Kerry Miller

After Week 2 of the 2022 college football season went completely off the rails, Week 3 was considerably more sedated. Every AP Top 10 team won by double digits—though No. 10 Arkansas sure did take a circuitous route to get there against Missouri State—and the only unranked-over-ranked win was a rather predictable one, with Washington knocking off No. 11 Michigan State by a score of 39-28. (Our projection was Huskies 31-27.)

Will Week 4 follow last Saturday's script, or are we going to cannonball back into some chaos?

With a trio of ranked vs. ranked games on tap to go along with three instances of a ranked team playing on the road against a 3-0 foe, the recipe for chaos is certainly there.

And if you're not dripping with anticipation for 3-0 Duke at 3-0 Kansas, I don't know what to tell you. That might be the most intriguing "neither team is ranked" game that we've seen in many moons.

Our predictions for each Week 4 game are broken into three sections: Top 25 teams, best unranked clashes and the rest of the slate. The Top 25 games are listed in ascending order of ranking. Each other section is presented in chronological order of kickoff time.

Unless otherwise noted, games are scheduled for Saturday. All times Eastern.

AP Nos. 25-21

Texas' Bijan Robinson (Daniel Dunn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 25 Miami Hurricanes (2-1) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-1) [3:30 p.m.]

Miami moved the ball well in its 17-9 Week 3 loss to Texas A&M; it just couldn't get the ball across the goal line against an excellent SEC defense.

That shouldn't be a problem this week against a Middle Tennessee team that lost 44-7 at James Madison in its lone game thus far against a competent opponent.

Curiously enough, MTSU holds a 2-0 edge in this all-time series. But after their first meeting since 1932, that unblemished record will be no more.

Prediction: Miami 38, Middle Tennessee 10

No. 24 Pittsburgh Panthers (2-1) vs. Rhode Island Rams (FCS) [Noon]

One week removed from allowing five consecutive touchdown drives of 75 or more yards in a 42-21 loss to Delaware, Rhode Island faces an even stiffer test against a ranked FBS opponent.

Pitt QB Kedon Slovis (undisclosed upper body injury) did not play in last week's 34-13 win at Western Michigan, though he was cleared to do so. Head coach Pat Narduzzi opted to play it safe with the quarterback he knows he's going to need when the Panthers begin ACC play in Week 5, and it wouldn't be a surprise if Slovis also sits this one out.

If that's the case, maybe Rhode Island—which does have a respectable offense led by former Maryland QB Kasim Hill—at least covers whatever the spread ends up being. But Slovis or no Slovis, it's unlikely Pitt will be sweating this one out quite like Arkansas was against its FCS foe (Missouri State) in Week 3.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 41, Rhode Island 16

No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) [7 p.m.]

See No. 10 Arkansas for prediction.

No. 22 Texas Longhorns (2-1) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) [3:30 p.m.]

Don't let the 41-20 final score fool you. Texas got all it could handle last Saturday at home against UTSA, leading by just four points late in the third quarter before Jahdae Barron ran back a back-breaking pick-six to jump-start the 21-point victory.

In its first road game of the season, Texas could be in some trouble.

However, Texas Tech didn't exactly look good in its 27-14 loss to NC State and has been careless with the ball to the tune of seven interceptions through its first three games. Could be another game in which a Longhorns pick-six opens the flood gates.

Worth noting: Texas has averaged 55.8 points during its four-game winning streak in this Big 12 rivalry. Throw in how good Bijan Robinson looked en route to three touchdowns and more than 200 total yards from scrimmage last week and Vegas' over/under of 60 sure feels like a misprint here.

Prediction: Texas 45, Texas Tech 27

No. 21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-0) vs. No. 5 Clemson Tigers (3-0) [Noon]

See No. 5 Clemson for prediction.

AP Nos. 20-16

Washington's Michael Penix Jr. (Jacob Snow/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 20 Florida Gators (2-1) at No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) [3:30 p.m.]

See No. 11 Tennessee for prediction.

No. 19 BYU Cougars (2-1) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (3-1) [10:15 p.m.]

BYU looked like it expected Oregon to be as bad in Week 3 as Georgia made Oregon look in Week 1. In what was supposed to be an opportunity to legitimately enter the College Football Playoff conversation, the Cougars could not get a stop to save their lives, falling behind 38-7 by midway through the third quarter and ultimately losing 41-20.

But they're better than that, and they should bounce back in a big way against a Wyoming offense that has managed just four touchdowns through three games against FBS opponents (Illinois, Tulsa and Air Force).

Prediction: BYU 35, Wyoming 13

No. 18 Washington Huskies (3-0) vs. Stanford Cardinal (1-1) [10:30 p.m.]

Say this much for Stanford: The run game is back. The Cardinal had one of the most anemic rushing attacks in the nation from 2018 to '21, but they ran it well against both Colgate and USC with E.J. Smith leading that charge. Pun definitely intended, they are going to give Washington a run for its money.

However, that Cardinal secondary looked awful two weeks ago against the Trojans, and UW QB Michael Penix Jr. just lit up Michigan State for nearly 400 passing yards and four touchdowns. The lefty does his thing again and the Huskies win a relatively high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Washington 38, Stanford 27

No. 17 Baylor Bears (2-1) at Iowa State Cyclones (3-0) [4 p.m.]

If the spread (Iowa State -2.5 at last check) and/or recent history is any indication, this should be a nail-biter.

The past three Baylor-Iowa State games were decided by one possession, twice with a critical scoring play in the final 30 seconds of the fourth quarter. And early returns suggest this should be quite the duel between defenses that are way better than we've come to expect from the Big 12.

If it comes down to which defense is more on point, I'll take the one that has been more opportunistic (Iowa State has eight takeaways to Baylor's two), the one that has yet to allow an opponent to score multiple touchdowns in a game and the one with home-field advantage. Matt Campbell's Cyclones were supposed to be a Top 10 team last season, but better late than never.

Prediction: Iowa State 21, Baylor 17

No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-1) [4 p.m.]

Ole Miss entered this season having allowed at least 14 points in 25 consecutive games, but it has allowed just 13 total points during this 3-0 start. Take it with a grain of salt since the games came against Troy, Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech, but this has been an incredible start for a team that is also averaging 43 points scored.

This will be a solid test of the legitimacy of that Ole Miss defense, though, as Tulsa is out of nowhere leading the nation with 413.0 passing yards per game. Davis Brin had 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions during the 2021 regular season, but he has been surgical in the early going, feeding sixth-year wide receiver Keylon Stokes an all-you-can-eat buffet of passes.

But while Tulsa might score a few touchdowns, Ole Miss might not need to punt once against a less than stellar Golden Hurricane defense.

Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Tulsa 17

AP Nos. 15-11

Tennessee's Hendon Hooker (Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 15 Oregon Ducks (2-1) at Washington State Cougars (3-0) [4 p.m.]

This game has "Nobody believes in us" written all over it for Washington State.

Oregon got absolutely boat-raced by Georgia in Week 1, but, oh well, no one cares and the Ducks are back up to No. 15 in the AP poll after a home win over BYU.

Washington wins a home game against a terrible Michigan State secondary and it catapults into the rankings at No. 18.

But for an impressive road win over a ranked Wisconsin team and a subsequent 31-point win over Colorado State, undefeated Washington State is still just fifth among others receiving votes?

Time for the Cougar faithful to drink a few hundred gallons of Fireball and cheer their boys to what might be the biggest upset of Week 4.

Prediction: Washington State 27, Oregon 24

No. 14 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-2) [Noon]

Penn State destroyed Auburn last weekend, though that was probably more of a testament to Auburn's "badness" than it was to Penn State's "goodness." We'll need to see more from the Nittany Lions (especially their defense) before we start taking them seriously as a threat to topple Michigan (Oct. 15) or Ohio State (Oct. 29).

Central Michigan, though, should be no problem. CMU's defense allowed over 500 yards and a combined 96 points in its losses to Oklahoma State (understandable) and South Alabama (less understandable). Sean Clifford has himself a fun afternoon.

Prediction: Penn State 45, Central Michigan 20

No. 13 Utah Utes (2-1) at Arizona State Sun Devils (1-2) [10:30 p.m.]

The Herm Edwards era at Arizona State is over, and as was the case for Nebraska this past weekend against Oklahoma, that first game under the interim head coach is probably going to be a nightmare.

The Sun Devils defense was helpless against both Oklahoma State and Eastern Michigan, and Utah's offense is probably better than both of those. (Certainly better than EMU's.)

Never say never when #Pac12AfterDark is in play, but Utah should cruise to an easy win in Tempe.

Prediction: Utah 41, Arizona State 17

No. 12 North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-0) vs. Connecticut Huskies (1-3) [7:30 p.m.]

Fresh off a 59-0 loss to Michigan, the only question here is whether Connecticut can hang around long enough to keep NC State's first-team offense on the field into the third quarter. Because with a ginormous game at Clemson coming up next weekend, the Wolfpack are going to want to pull Devin Leary and Co. as soon as possible.

Prediction: NC State 48, Connecticut 7

No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) vs. No. 20 Florida Gators (2-1) [3:30 p.m.]

In theory, this will be a great game. Both teams are ranked in the AP Top 20, and while Tennessee is both ranked higher and the home team, Florida has completely owned this SEC East rivalry as of late, winning five straight and 16 of the last 17 meetings dating back to 2005.

But while Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker has been just about flawless since the start of last season (36 passing touchdowns, seven rushing touchdowns, three interceptions), Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson has been... flawful? Can we make that a word after the past two weeks in which he has gone 24-of-53 (45.3 percent) for 255 yards, no touchdowns and four picks to go along with 13 carries for 28 yards and no scores?

Somehow, with help from a pick six, some short fields and a late missed field goal, the Gators still managed to eke out a home win over South Florida. But if Richardson plays anything like that against Tennessee, the Vols may well win by four touchdowns and rapidly become the trendy pick to crash the CFP party.

Considering opposing quarterbacks have rushed a combined 18 times for negative-22 yards against this Volunteers defense, I like their chances of keeping Richardson bottled up.

Prediction: Tennessee 38, Florida 17

AP Nos. 10-6

Texas A&M's Devon Achane (Jack Gorman/Getty Images)

No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) at No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) [7 p.m.]

So, Arkansas is the 2022 version of 2021 Michigan State, yeah?

The rushing attack is dominant, the quarterback is certainly good enough to capitalize when the opposing defense over-commits to slowing down the run and the defense gets sacks in bunches. But the defense also allows way too many passing yards. In fact, the Razorbacks are dead last in the nation at 352.7 passing yards allowed per game.

Can Texas A&M take advantage of that secondary, though?

Haynes King threw for just 97 yards in the Week 2 loss to Appalachian State. Jimbo Fisher let Max Johnson start the subsequent game against Miami, and he merely went 10-for-20 for 140 yards—pretty much all of it to either Ainias Smith or Devon Achane. But if the Aggies relentlessly feed those two playmakers, they reasonably could do to this porous secondary what Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle did to the NFL's Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, finishing with 22 receptions, 361 yards and four touchdowns.

Even if Smith and Achane don't get quite that carried away, they should do enough for a stingy A&M defense (two touchdowns allowed thus far this season) to get the job done.

Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Arkansas 20

No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys [idle]

After dismantling Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a final score of 63-7, Oklahoma State gets the week off to prepare for a massive Week 5 showdown with No. 17 Baylor.

No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (3-0) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (1-2) [7 p.m.]

Kentucky's inability to run the ball is becoming a very real concern. It's one thing to struggle against Florida, but averaging less than three yards per carry in last week's shutout of Youngstown State was a troubling takeaway from an otherwise convincing victory.

Fortunately for the ranked team in this matchup, the NIU secondary is abysmal, having allowed 11 passing touchdowns through its first three games against Eastern Illinois, Tulsa and Vanderbilt. Wildcats quarterback Will Levis should have a field day in this one, even if Mark Stoops treats this game as an opportunity to get the run game going.

Prediction: Kentucky 35, Northern Illinois 13

No. 7 USC Trojans (3-0) at Oregon State Beavers (3-0) [9:30 p.m.]

There are three ranked-against-ranked showdowns in Week 4, but Trojans-Beavers may well be the best game on the slate.

(Unless you're a fan of hard-nosed defense and low-scoring affairs, of course. If that's the case, you're going to hate this game.)

USC's offense is quite potent, but that D has been boom or bust. The Trojans have forced 11 turnovers (while committing zero), but Stanford moved the ball pretty much at will against them, racking up 33 first downs. Fresno State also eclipsed 400 total yards against USC, despite losing all-MWC QB Jake Haener to a devastating lower-leg injury early in the third quarter.

And Oregon State's offense is potent in its own right, scoring at least 21 points in 22 of its last 23 games. The Beavers put up 34 and 35 against Boise State and Fresno State, respectively, and it'd be surprising if they don't at least reach 27 in this game.

In the end, though, it's going to be too much Caleb Williams, too much Jordan Addison and too much of a rushing attack that has been exponentially better than it was over the previous four seasons.

Prediction: USC 42, Oregon State 31

No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (2-1) [8 p.m.]

Oklahoma's offense looks about as good as it did under Lincoln Riley and under Bob Stoops before him, averaging north of 500 total yards per game with 17 touchdowns against just one turnover.

But the Sooners look different and better on defense with former long-time Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables now running the program. Oklahoma already has 13 sacks and is leading the nation with 32 total tackles for loss. And that's bad news for a Kansas State offense that has not been able to do much of anything through the air with former Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez behind center.

The two best receiving games of Deuce Vaughn's college career have both come against Oklahoma, but the Sooners will keep him reasonably contained in this one en route to a relatively convincing victory.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Kansas State 17

AP Nos. 5-1

Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 5 Clemson Tigers (3-0) at No. 21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-0) [Noon]

Clemson has gotten out to a couple of painfully slow starts this season.

The Tigers won their opener against Georgia Tech 41-10, but that was a 14-10 game with 21 minutes remaining. Similar story this past weekend against Louisiana Tech, as Clemson led just 13-6 at the half before eventually cruising to a 48-20 victory.

Pull that stunt again this week on the road against a much better offense and they could be facing quite the deficit by the time they finally wake up.

However, in last year's meeting, Dabo Swinney improved to 13-0 in his career against Wake Forest in what was his team's best offensive showing of the season, racking up 543 total yards on its way to a 48-27 victory. And that Demon Deacons defense doesn't appear to be any better than it was last year.

Prediction: Clemson 41, Wake Forest 30

No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (3-0) vs. Maryland Terrapins (3-0) [Noon]

The state of Maryland loves Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, but the University of Maryland sure does hate running into his brother, Jim. Since taking the Wolverines job in 2015, Harbaugh has gone 6-0 against the Terrapins by a cumulative score of 291-59. All six games were decided by at least 21 points.

Given that baseline, Maryland might have a better showing than usual. QB Taulia Tagovailoa has gotten out to a solid start to the year, as has the RB tandem of Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton, each averaging at least 9.0 yards per carry.

But Michigan is leading the nation in scoring while barely even needing J.J. McCarthy to do anything at quarterback. He has completed 88.2 percent of his minimal pass attempts, and he should make a spirited push toward the top three of the Heisman conversation in this game against a secondary that has allowed 661 passing yards and six touchdowns over the past two games against Charlotte and SMU.

Prediction: Michigan 42, Maryland 17

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) [7:30 p.m.]

It's ye olde unstoppable force vs. immovable object debate. Ohio State is averaging 8.44 yards per play and a nation-best 565.3 total yards per game, while Wisconsin has allowed 24 total points and has not yet allowed an opponent to gain more than 253 total yards.

But with both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming back in action last week for Ohio State, joining an already unstoppable receiving corps led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, got to go with the unstoppable force in this one.

Should be similar to 2019, when Wisconsin held opponents not named Ohio State to 13.75 points per game but gave up 38 in the regular season and 34 in the B1G championship against the Buckeyes. Except I've got Ohio State scoring even more than that this time around.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Wisconsin 14

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-1) [7:30 p.m.]

Even though these teams both play in the SEC, this will be just the third meeting between Alabama and Vanderbilt in the past 15 years.

And, you know, I think the Commodores are OK with that, because the Crimson Tide won 34-0 in 2011 and 59-0 in 2017.

Vanderbilt should get into the scoring column this time around, as the offense has been (at least by Vandy standards) quite respectable thus far, averaging 6.7 yards per play and 42.0 points per game.

As was the case five years ago, though, Alabama will score at will. This Vanderbilt defense allowed 495 total yards to Elon in Week 1 and 45 points against Wake Forest the week after that. 'Bama took out some frustration in last week's 63-7 win over Louisiana-Monroe, but it still has something to prove in the aftermath of the close call against Texas.

Prediction: Alabama 52, Vanderbilt 6

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (1-2) [Noon]

Kent State has had a lot of experience against AP Top 10 opponents over the past decade, but all of it has been awful. In reverse chronological order, it was a 33-3 loss to No. 7 Oklahoma (Week 2), 41-10 loss to No. 6 Texas A&M (2021), 30-7 loss to No. 5 Iowa (2021), 55-16 loss to No. 8 Auburn (2019), 48-0 loss to No. 8 Wisconsin (2019), 63-10 loss to No. 10 Penn State (2018), 56-3 loss to No. 5 Clemson (2017), 48-0 loss to No. 1 Alabama (2016) and a 45-13 loss to No. 8 LSU (2013).

Given the state of Georgia's incredible defense, yet another 48-0 shutout is a very real possibility.

Prediction: Georgia 52, Kent State 3

Best Unranked Clashes

Kansas' Jalon Daniels (Icon Sportswire)

Duke Blue Devils (3-0) at Kansas Jayhawks (3-0) [Noon]

Only Michigan—which has had the luxury of destroying woeful Colorado State, Hawai'i and Connecticut—has scored more points this season than Kansas' 159. After opening this past Saturday's game with back-to-back three-and-outs and falling into a 14-0 deficit, the Jayhawks went wild with six touchdowns and two field goals in their next nine possessions for a 48-30 victory against a pretty solid Houston team.

Can Duke do anything to slow this team down in a showdown between undefeated schools that are usually only relevant in men's college basketball?

Northwestern threw for 435 yards against Duke two weeks ago, which is a mark Northwestern has reached only one other time since 2007, so I'm thinking no. And the Blue Devils offense is unlikely to keep pace in a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Kansas 45, Duke 35

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2) at North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0) [3:30 p.m.]

The average Notre Dame game this season has featured just 39.7 total points. Conversely, North Carolina won a game three weeks ago in which it allowed Appalachian State to score 40 points in the fourth quarter alone.

In this coin flip of a game, the team that controls the tempo figures to get the W.

To that end, the status of UNC WR Josh Downs is monumental. He missed the last two games with an injury, but he had a pair of touchdowns in the opener after racking up 101 receptions for 1,335 yards in 2021. If he's good to go, Notre Dame is going to have a rough time trying to keep this offense bottled up.

Prediction: North Carolina 34, Notre Dame 27

Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) at Michigan State Spartans (2-1) [3:30 p.m.]

Fun fact: Minnesota has scored 20 offensive touchdowns and has allowed a grand total of 17 points. With a healthy Mo Ibrahim back and leading the rushing attack, the Golden Gophers have run roughshod through the extremely easy portion of their schedule.

Michigan State's front seven is solid, though. It's the Spartans secondary that leaves an awful lot to be desired, and Minnesota has not been anything close to prolific through the air dating back to the start of 2020. Michigan State holds Minnesota under 200 rushing yards and escapes with the home victory.

Prediction: Michigan State 31, Minnesota 28

Indiana Hoosiers (3-0) at Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) [3:30 p.m.]

Indiana might be the least convincing 3-0 team in the country. It needed a last-minute touchdown to win the opener against Illinois, trailed 10-0 at halftime against Idaho in Week 2 before rallying for a victory over an FCS opponent and needed a last-minute touchdown, a two-point conversion and overtime to beat Western Kentucky.

But if the Hoosiers can get to 4-0 via a road win over Cincinnati, they suddenly need to be taken kind of seriously. They won't quite pull it off, but they'll make it interesting.

Prediction: Cincinnati 28, Indiana 23

James Madison Dukes (2-0) at Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) [3:30 p.m.]

Year No. 1 in the FBS has gone about as well as James Madison could have hoped for thus far, blowing out Middle Tennessee and Norfolk State by a combined score of 107-14. But now can the Dukes prove they belong by taking down another program that recently wasted little time in asserting its dominance after making the FCS-to-FBS transition?

Appalachian State is riding high, both from last week's Hail Mary victory over Troy and the previous week's stunning road upset of then-No. 6 Texas A&M. But they won't get caught napping in Boone, where they have gone 32-3 in their last 35 home games.

Prediction: Appalachian State 31, James Madison 23

The Rest of the Slate (part 1)

Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin (Michael Chang/Getty Images)

Thursday

Friday

Early Saturday

The Rest of the Slate (part 2)

Iowa QB Spencer Petras (Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

Saturday Night

   

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