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Buying or Selling NFL's Early Breakout Players

Brent Sobleski

People tend to gravitate toward the newest and shiniest toys, and the same is true in the NFL with breakout stars.

In some ways, the NFL operates under a constant state of Jordan fatigue. Greatness can become boring. Aaron Donald won three Defensive Player of the Year awards and could have more. Tom Brady has as many detractors as he does fans.

Those striving to reach the same standard are far more enthralling to watch.

Many enjoyed seeing Joe Burrow galvanize a losing franchise and lead it to the Super Bowl. T.J. Watt's ascension as the game's premier sack artist while possibly eclipsing his older brother was awesome to watch. Jonathan Taylor leading the league in rushing after two-time rushing leader Derrick Henry went down with an injury served as the proverbial changing of the guard.

Who's next? Through two weeks of play, a few names worked their way into the conversation. Will they stay there?

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

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Buying

Maybe Tyreek Hill was onto something when he compared Tua Tagovailoa to his old signal-caller Patrick Mahomes.

To be clear, Mahomes is the best of the best, while Tagovailoa is simply striving to be counted among the NFL's better options. Through two weeks, the Miami Dolphins quarterback looks well on his way to doing so.

With Sunday's 469-yard, six-touchdown performance in a miraculous comeback against the Baltimore Ravens, Tagovailoa's name now resides directly next to Mahomes' in the record book. The Dolphins starter became the second-youngest quarterback since 1950 to throw for at least 450 yards and six touchdowns, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Only Mahomes did so at a younger age.

The performance served as Tagovailoa's coming-out party as the Dolphins roared back from a 21-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter. Tagovailoa threw four touchdowns during the final frame, including 48- and 60-yard strikes to Hill. Overall, the effort builds upon positive signs that started in Week 1.

Against the New England Patriots, the 2020 fifth overall pick completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 270 yards and a touchdown in the 20-7 victory.

After two seasons of up-and-down play, Tagovailoa is finally in the right situation.

He's playing for an offensive-minded head coach with Mike McDaniel in a proven system. In Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tagovailoa has gifted receiving options. Tight end Mike Gesicki is a massive target (6'6") over the middle and in the end zone. The offensive line is playing much better. And the combination of Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert averaged 5.2 yards per carry against the Ravens.

Tagovailoa is limited in some areas. He doesn't have the size (6'1"), arm strength or movement skills of Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. But the right situation will go a long way toward him being successful. The Dolphins are set up to win, and so far they have. Tagovailoa is more than good enough to lead the team to a winning regular season and into a playoff berth.

RB D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

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Buying

D'Andre Swift has been a solid all-around back since being drafted 35th overall in 2020, and now he appears to have reached boss level in his third season.

A total of 1,947 combined yards from scrimmage through his first two campaigns shouldn't be overlooked alongside his ability to create chunk plays.

In the season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, Swift posted 175 yards from scrimmage, including a whopping 144 rushing yards. Despite a balky ankle throughout the week and some uncertainty about whether he would play against the Washington Commanders, Swift still gained 87 yards from scrimmage. And he's now averaging an unreal 10.5 yards per touch.

He's already posted two runs of 50 or more yards and a reception of 25 yards. The adjustment Swift made Sunday when he fell to the ground on a misplaced check-down pass only to get up and race 22 yards untouched into the end zone may have been the play of the weekend.

He is maximizing his touches and serving as a vital component to an emerging Lions offense.

The only potential holdup is his injury history. He missed seven games over the last two seasons, and he's currently dealing with the aforementioned ankle.

A healthy Swift plays behind one of the league's best offensive lines. The Lions' passing attack is taking off thanks to Amon-Ra St. Brown's ascension and improved weapons elsewhere at wide receiver. Detroit's featured back has the potential to be in the same conversation as Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb by the end of this season.

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

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Selling

The Baltimore Ravens believed in their scouting department and traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals.

And the team then didn't select a single wide receiver among this year's draft class. Brown's replacement was already on the roster.

The Ravens chose Rashod Bateman with last year's 27th overall pick. He missed five games (groin) but still finished with 46 catches for 515 yards. Baltimore expected more this year, and he's delivered.

Baltimore's offensive scheme is built around quarterback Lamar Jackson and his unique skill set. Wide receivers won't get as many opportunities as they would elsewhere. But in Bateman's case, he's already maximizing his touches and torching defenses.

Six catches through two games isn't exciting on the surface, but those minimal touches led to 167 receiving yards, including a touchdown reception of 50 or more yards in both contests. His 75-yard scamper on a simple slant route against the Miami Dolphins showed his full potential.

Bateman easily beat the Dolphins' Xavien Howard off the line of scrimmage with a silky-smooth release and then outraced the cover corner all the way to the end zone.

The only reason this is a sell is that Bateman won't be featured as the offense's top target. That designation belongs to tight end Mark Andrews. When Jackson is looking for someone to make a play, Andrews is his guy. The tight end position, in general, is. The wide receiver isn't always going to provide a big play on his limited touches, either.

However, the Ravens can't be disappointed in what Bateman has achieved taking over for Brown. The organization made the right choice.

TE O.J. Howard, Houston Texans

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Selling

Since being drafted 19th overall in 2017, O.J. Howard has been an enigma. He's now with his third team in the last eight months.

The Buccaneers chose not to re-sign Howard despite Rob Gronkowski teetering on the edge of retirement. Instead, the 27-year-old inked a free-agent deal with the Buffalo Bills, who cut him before he ever played an official down. The Houston Texans signed him shortly thereafter.

Surprisingly, the tight end caught a pair of touchdown passes against the Indianapolis Colts in the season opener. Houston could finally be the place where the offense featured Howard and he could turn into a legitimate option.

It's easy to get excited and expect big things. The 6'6", 251-pound tight end always had the physical tools to excel. He's big, strong and athletic. He can play inline or detach as a receiver in certain formations. Yet his skill set has never fully translated, which is why this season's initial performance surprised many.

"We were excited to see O.J. go out and make some plays for us, some big plays, catch two touchdowns and we feel good about the overall depth and talent that we have in our tight end group," offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton told reporters Friday.

Consistency has never been a part of Howard's brand, though. Case in point, he caught one pass for seven yards Sunday against the Denver Broncos.

The Texans aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut, either. Houston will struggle to generate consistent offensive movement with a lack of weapons and Davis Mills behind center. Plus, Pharaoh Brown will receive his fair share of targets as the Texans' other tight end.

Howard's potential remains tantalizing, and Houston might be the best place to finally see some realized because the team lacks talent. But his previous history and recent usage suggest that's not likely.

OT James Hudson, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Kirk Irwin

Selling

Offensive line depth is a luxury most teams don't have, but the Cleveland Browns are a rare exception. The team features arguably the league's best front five and multiple players capable of playing at a relatively high level beyond the projected starters.

In the case of James Hudson, the second-year blocker came a long way in a short amount of time.

Cleveland chose Hudson in the fourth round in 2021. As a rookie, he looked overwhelmed and his technique proved to be a mess. Pre-snap movement and pass-rushers had his head spinning. Numerous injuries to others led to four starts, and the experience didn't go well.

The Browns have another luxury, though: Bill Callahan is the game's best line coach. He's provided Hudson the guidance to improve his game and even excel at right tackle with Jack Conklin out of the lineup. Hudson deserves credit for putting in the work and starting the Browns' first two games at right tackle.

"It's him saying, 'Hey, it's time,'" right guard Wyatt Teller said, per Anthony Poisal of the Browns' official site. "You see that a lot from guys who are young, when in their first offseason they go to different places and do things, and James was like, 'Nah, I need to get better and work my butt off to get here, because I don't want whatever it was last year to happen again.' He wanted to fix those issues."

Conklin is still recovering from last season's torn patellar tendon. Hudson looks like a long-term fixture at right tackle, but Conklin is the incumbent. A year from now, Conklin is a free agent and Hudson can move into a full-time role. Until then, the spot remains Conklin's since a healthy version can be an anchor for the group on the right side.

Edge Alex Highsmith, Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Emilee Chinn

Selling

The Pittsburgh Steelers are known for their rugged linebacker play. Over time, the position designation evolved where outside linebackers are actually edge defenders. Even then, Pittsburgh's edge players remained among the best in the business.

Last season, T.J. Watt led the NFL with 22.5 sacks. But the Defensive Player of the Year didn't have a true bookend. The team forced Alex Highsmith, a third-round pick in 2020, into the lineup despite having Melvin Ingram on the roster. Eventually, Ingram grew tired of a rotational role and asked to be traded.

Highsmith was fine in his first season as a full-time starter, recording a respectable six sacks and 15 tackles for loss. Although, he never felt like a consistent threat as a pass-rusher.

The opening to this season looked different as Highsmith terrorized Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals offense with three sacks, two tackles for loss and four quarterback hits. Pittsburgh's defense sacked Burrow seven times.

In hindsight, the game wasn't the indicator it initially seemed to be.

Cincinnati's pass protection remains putrid despite replacing four starters from last year's unit and investing heavily in the trenches. Dallas sacked Burrow six more times Sunday.

Furthermore, Watt is now not in the lineup to draw the attention of offenses, as the All-Pro defender is nursing a torn pectoral muscle that will require six weeks of rehabilitation.

Protection calls will now slide in Highsmith's direction more frequently.

In the first contest without Watt against New England, Highsmith had a tackle for loss and a quarterback hit. He hasn't reached the level where he can overcome being the focal point of opposing game plans. Watt's absence will have a drastic effect on Highsmith's production, especially when he's asked to handle better offensive lines than the ones he faced during the first two weeks.

LB Ernest Jones, Los Angeles Rams

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Buying

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay must be clairvoyant. He saw what linebacker Ernest Jones would become after starting seven games as a rookie.

"He's an impressive young player that's only going to get better. I think he's going to be a cornerstone for our team," McVay told reporters in December.

Despite the coaching staff's belief in Jones, the organization still signed free agent Bobby Wagner after the Seattle Seahawks cut the heart and soul of their defense.

Of course they would. Wagner is a six-time first-team All-Pro and eight-time Pro Bowl selection. He also finished top four in total tackles during three of the last four seasons. His experience and continued performance level provide the connective tissue between the defensive front and a talented secondary the Rams defense previously lacked.

Wagner's addition can't be underestimated, but maybe not in the way many imagined.

Jones gets to learn under one of the best, and his tutelage has been represented during the two performances this season. According to Pro Football Focus, the second-year linebacker posted an impressive 91.2 grade during Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills. The 2021 third-round pick followed up that effort with a team-leading 12 tackles Sunday.

Play of that caliber will eventually make Jones an every-down linebacker.

"I want to make the game for the linebackers back to how it used to be," Jones told reporters two weeks ago. "Allow us to go run around, hit, make the plays that come to us and the ones that don't come to us. That's the big thing to me, to show that we can still do it all. We don't just need DB (defensive back) bodies. You can still go freaking tackle, run, go cover passes, do it all."

S Talanoa Hufanga, San Francisco 49ers

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Buying

Safety Talanoa Hufanga looked like a first-round talent at USC if not for injuries.

He suffered a broken collarbone, a sprained right shoulder and a concussion during his time on campus. He also never played a full season.

"You don't think he should be able to make so many plays, but there he is all time near the ball," an anonymous scouting director told NFL.com's Lance Zierlein during the predraft process. "The injuries are a concern, though, and I think it pushes him down to the third day."

The executive proved to be right. Despite outstanding instincts, tone-setting physicality and a nose for the football, the 6'1", 210-pound Hufanga fell to the fifth round.

As a rookie, he played in 15 games and found his way into the starting lineup for three of them. He racked up 32 tackles and looked like a player with enormous potential.

In year two, the 22-year-old is now the 49ers' starting strong safety, and he fits well into the spot as he flies around the field. Hufanga registered 17 tackles, three tackles for loss, three defended passes and an interception through two games.

The last two numbers are important.

Hufanga had been typecast as a traditional box safety, but he's making game-changing plays in coverage. Against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, he lined up over the slot receiver and undercut a skinny post to tip the ball into the awaiting arms of teammate Tashaun Gipson.

Hufanga has always been capable, and now he looks healthy.

"He's just going out there, being himself, not doing too much out of his game," linebacker Fred Warner told reporters. "He's doing exactly what we've seen from him all offseason."

   

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