The preseason is over, rosters are just about finalized and the 2022 NFL campaign is practically here.
Short of a few last-minute changes, the football world knows what to expect entering the season. Depth charts will basically only be tweaked on the fringes, not the core, in the final days before kickoff next Thursday.
Everything from the roster itself to the upcoming schedule is a factor in these projections. Injuries will inevitably impact teams, but that is not considered because there's simply no way of knowing who it will impact when.
I'm certain we'll all agree on every prediction. Let's do it.
Arizona Cardinals
The contract drama between Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals is a memorable part of the offseason, but a five-year extension removed any concerns for 2022.
However, the Cardinals seem solidly a low-tier contender.
Wide receiver Marquise Brown is a nice pickup, though his presence doesn't make up for DeAndre Hopkins' looming six-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. Star defender Chandler Jones is gone via free agency, and the opening run against the Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Rams is a gauntlet. There is a real chance for a 3-3 start.
Arizona still has playoff potential, thanks to what should be a dynamic offense down the stretch. But if the Cardinals lose to both the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, they may fall on the outside of the postseason race.
Projected Record: 9-8
Atlanta Falcons
The reality of the Atlanta Falcons' situation is clear.
Longtime quarterback Matt Ryan requested a trade, and the Falcons moved him to the Indianapolis Colts. Atlanta replaced him with Marcus Mariota, a stopgap QB who's taking snaps until 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder is ready.
The receiving corps is extremely thin, even as first-rounder Drake London is a potential standout next to tight end Kyle Pitts. Calvin Ridley won't be available because of a season-long suspension for betting on NFL games in 2021.
Perhaps the Falcons will steal a few unexpected wins if Mariota outperforms his expectations and the defense's top players stay healthy. Anything close to true playoff contention would be surprising, though.
Projected Record: 3-14
Baltimore Ravens
As the cloud of Lamar Jackson's extension discussions hangs over the Baltimore Ravens, the team is entering an interesting year.
Injuries had a substantial impact on a disappointing 2021, so that possibility is out there. But, again, we're not projecting bad health issues. The greater concerns are the development of a receiving corps that has to replace Brown and Greg Roman's less predictable offense.
On the bright side, the Ravens seemingly had a fantastic draft and upgraded the offensive line. They probably would've made the postseason had a late-season ankle injury not sidelined Jackson.
Baltimore should be optimistic about 2022, especially with a favorable eight-week stretch to close the regular season.
Projected Record: 10-7
Buffalo Bills
No surprise on a positive projection here.
Led by MVP-caliber quarterback Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills have one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses. All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs and breakout candidate Gabe Davis are a terrific one-two punch on the outside, while tight end Dawson Knox is also a big-play threat.
Buffalo retooled its defense, but the unit—if the secondary can withstand Tre'Davious White's early absence (ACL recovery)—can be even better than 2021's top-ranked group. Von Miller should be the high-end pass-rusher the Bills lacked last season, and first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam is an excellent addition to the back end.
While the gut-wrenching playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in last year's divisional round may provide extra fuel, the Bills are built for a deep postseason run anyway.
Projected Record: 13-4
Carolina Panthers
Three straight five-win seasons have the Carolina Panthers in an unsettled spot. If the team doesn't improve, changes are likely coming.
This year, there are two major questions.
Will there be stability at quarterback? Sam Darnold, Cam Newton and P.J. Walker all opened games in 2021. Baker Mayfield could be a 17-game starter now that third-round selection Matt Corral (foot) is out for the season. Even if Mayfield isn't fantastic, he's at least a legitimate QB1.
And will running back Christian McCaffrey avoid a bad injury? During his first three seasons, he appeared in every contest. Over the last two years, he's missed a combined 23 games.
Yes to both, and Carolina can flirt with a plus-.500 record. No to either, and the Panthers may be parting with head coach Matt Rhule.
Projected Record: 6-11
Chicago Bears
The first season of a new Chicago Bears era has a clear motive: Which players will remain part of this rebuild?
General manager Ryan Poles has embraced a much-needed teardown in Chicago. This offseason, the Bears traded edge-rusher Khalil Mack, ditched some other big-money contracts and emphasized short-term deals in free agency.
The objective is to find the right players to surround second-year quarterback Justin Fields. The trick is reshaping the roster while not stunting his development.
Balancing those priorities is no easy task, and that will be reflected in Chicago's final record. If the Bears can swing a six-win year in Matt Eberflus' first season at the helm, consider that a victory.
Projected Record: 4-13
Cincinnati Bengals
It's a bit of a good news/bad news situation for the Cincinnati Bengals.
After reaching the Super Bowl last season, the franchise had a bunch of money available and upgraded the roster in free agency. Most notably, the Bengals bolstered the offensive line in front of quarterback Joe Burrow.
The flip side is Cincinnati's schedule is much tougher because it finished first in the division compared to fourth in 2020. The extra NFC game against the Dallas Cowboys only deepens the difficulty. Remember, for example, the Ravens have the opposite benefit of an easier slate.
Regardless, the Bengals are a definite playoff threat and the preseason AFC North favorite.
Projected Record: 11-6
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson is suspended 11 games for violating the league's personal-conduct policy after 25 women filed civil lawsuits against him between March 2020 and March 2021 accusing him of sexual assault or misconduct during massage therapy sessions. One of the lawsuits was dropped, while 23 of the remaining 24 have been settled as of July 31.
Watson's suspension is about more than the team's on-field product, but there's no denying it has altered the Cleveland Browns' outlook significantly.
Outside of the QB position, the Browns have a well-built roster. They need Amari Cooper to carry the receiving corps and have a reliable No. 2 option emerge—hopefully rookie wideout David Bell—but otherwise, the offensive line is excellent with a ton of talent in the backfield.
Cleveland had an above-average defense last season and shouldn't be any worse in 2022. Superstar edge-rusher Myles Garrett highlights that cohesive unit.
However, it's not controversial to say the Browns won't be as successful with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. He's a fine backup, but a two-month gauntlet in October and November could ruin Cleveland's playoff hopes.
Projected Record: 8-9
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas endured a busy offseason, and it's difficult to say the Cowboys' roster is in better shape than 2021.
Now, that's not meant to suggest they're no longer a playoff contender. Dak Prescott leads an offense that has plenty of skill-position talent, while linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback Trevon Diggs highlight a decent defense that mostly remains intact.
The concern is a reworked offensive line will be without left tackle Tyron Smith (knee) for three-plus months. Head coach Mike McCarthy isn't an inspiring game manager either.
Dallas has a nightmarish opening six weeks, but the remainder of the schedule should boost the Cowboys into the postseason.
Projected Record: 10-7
Denver Broncos
How quickly are you jumping on the bandwagon?
Based on their early schedule, Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos have a reasonable path to 7-4 or 8-3. Outside of games at the Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers—two annual tilts anyway—Denver's toughest game is probably a trip to Tennessee.
Not bad!
The defining stretch of the campaign awaits in December. Denver closes the regular season at Baltimore, home to Kansas City and Arizona and then at both the Rams and KC before a home finale opposite the Chargers.
It's crucial for the Broncos to take advantage of a friendly start to the season.
Projected Record: 9-8
Detroit Lions
After posting a 3-13-1 record last year, the Detroit Lions are banking on internal development for progress in 2022.
The last several months have been relatively quiet in Detroit, which agreed to a bunch of short-term contracts this offseason. The roster isn't hugely upgraded—not to a postseason-type level, that is—but it's certainly not worse on paper.
Detroit's prime opportunity for victories comes in the latter half of the schedule. Along with two clashes against the Bears, the Lions host the Jacksonville Jaguars and travel to the New York Giants, New York Jets and Panthers.
While a six-win season wouldn't be reason for celebration, Detroit hasn't reached that mark since 2018.
Projected Record: 6-11
Green Bay Packers
If the rookies make a strong impact, the Green Bay Packers should have an elite defense. They weren't terribly far from that level in 2020 and 2021 already.
Aaron Rodgers needs to work some offensive magic, though.
It'd be an insult to Davante Adams to say Green Bay won't have immense difficulty replacing him. Sure, the perceived depth of the receiving corps is stronger, but volume was less necessary when the Packers had an All-Pro lining up every play.
The promising angle is that Green Bay's offensive line—when healthy—can be excellent. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are a powerful one-two in the backfield as well.
Expect the Packers in the playoffs, but the development of young receivers Amari Rodgers, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs will determine their upside.
Projected Record: 11-6
Houston Texans
Let's start with a deserved shoutout to Brandin Cooks, one of the league's most QB-proof receivers. The eight-year veteran has played with four franchises yet has six 1,000-yard seasons.
Oh, also, the Houston Texans will be bad again.
We could sugarcoat that reality, praising the additions of running back Dameon Pierce, guard Kenyon Green, linebacker Christian Harris, corner Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Jalen Pitre. All five rookies should be regular starters this year.
The rest of the roster isn't exciting, however. Davis Mills may become the long-term QB, but he's an inexperienced player in a tough situation. Plus, we project 13 of the team's 17 opponents to win eight-plus games.
Houston's rebuild rolls into 2023.
Projected Record: 4-13
Indianapolis Colts
Consistency is the question for the Indianapolis Colts.
They were heavily dependent on All-Pro back Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., the only reliable receiver, last season. Matt Ryan's arrival won't immediately solve those issues, but he's a smart veteran and a safe passer who should upgrade the unit.
Defensively, the Colts have a good mix of talent aided by a top free-agent signing in cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New coordinator Gus Bradley is a wild card, but his history is moderately reassuring.
We're expecting a stream of close finishes. If they steal a few tight games like they did in 2020, the Colts have 12-win potential.
Projected Record: 10-7
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville has a vision of rising in the AFC South standings, but 2022 is all about laying a stable foundation.
Most importantly, the Jaguars rapidly abandoned the ill-fated Urban Meyer hire. They brought in Doug Pederson, a longtime NFL coach with a penchant for crafting well-run offenses. Wouldn't that be a nice change for Trevor Lawrence in Year 2?
Between the return of running back Travis Etienne Jr.—who missed 2021 with a Lisfranc injury—a few rookies and a good (very expensive) free-agency haul, the personnel is undoubtedly better this season.
The postseason is just a dream, but the Jaguars won't be putting on a masterclass in dysfunction this fall. Progress!
Projected Record: 5-12
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is a fascinating team in 2022.
By no means are we saying Tyreek Hill's departure will "expose" Patrick Mahomes. We are, however, curious to see the Chiefs adjust to life without Hill, whose dynamic skill set created some incredible stress on defenses as they needed to contain tight end Travis Kelce too.
Also, the defense overcame a miserable start to 2021 and sparked KC's midseason surge. But in such a loaded AFC West—plus clashes with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bills, Rams and Bengals—can the Chiefs avoid a drop-off this season?
Kansas City has a doable yet challenging path to an eighth consecutive 10-win season under Andy Reid.
Projected Record: 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders
The preseason doesn't matter. The preseason doesn't matter. The preseason doesn't matter.
Hey, the Raiders went 4-0 in the preseason!
The biggest reason that tidy accomplishment is meaningless is that quarterback Derek Carr attempted zero passes, and wideout Davante Adams ran zero routes. Nevertheless, the Raiders looked like an improved, more disciplined team under new head coach Josh McDaniels. They rarely had penalties and didn't commit a turnover.
Sustainability becomes the question. Some turnovers will happen, but it doesn't have to be many. The penalty issues of recent years, however, could be minimized.
As mentioned before, the AFC West is loaded. But there's not-so-sneaky upside with the Raiders if the preseason wasn't a total lie and they don't self-sabotage themselves again.
Projected Record: 9-8
Los Angeles Chargers
After the Los Angeles Chargers missed the 2021 postseason in heartbreaking fashion, they're a strong favorite to earn a spot in 2022.
The offense has familiar names in quarterback Justin Herbert, running back Austin Ekeler and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. And, yes, the unit's explosiveness is Los Angeles' main appeal.
But the Chargers bulked up the defense too. They acquired edge-rusher Khalil Mack in a trade and then picked up interior linemen Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson, cornerback J.C. Jackson and nickelback Bryce Callahan in free agency.
Although they need to capitalize on a decently soft opening half of the schedule, they're an exciting team.
Projected Record: 11-6
Los Angeles Rams
The reigning Super Bowl champions had a slew of key contributors head elsewhere in free agency. Matthew Stafford's lingering elbow discomfort is cause for hesitation, and the schedule looks incredibly difficult.
We prefer blissful ignorance, though.
The high-end talent on the roster—namely Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp, defensive tackle Aaron Donald and corner Jalen Ramsey—is a stellar foundation. Veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner upgrades the middle of the defense, and former Bears wideout Allen Robinson is a prime bounce-back candidate in an offense with actual structure.
Given the negatives up top, the Los Angeles Rams' path to a frustrating year is apparent. But we'd be shocked if they don't find their way back to the playoffs.
Projected Record: 12-5
Miami Dolphins
The addition of Tyreek Hill legitimized the Miami Dolphins' receiving corps, and left tackle Terron Armstead is a desperately needed cornerstone up front. Miami had a busy offseason with defensive free agents as well.
So, about Tua Tagovailoa.
Tua's prime limitation—arm strength—will appear at times throughout the season. Not believing in the quarterback is a fine reason to think the Dolphins aren't Super Bowl contenders. Outside of Armstead, the offensive line is an unproven group.
But the defense could, perhaps should, be tremendous.
And new head coach Mike McDaniel hid Jimmy Garoppolo's weaknesses on the San Francisco 49ers and can do the same in Miami. Tagovailoa, while flawed, isn't as much of a disaster at QB as the extremes of social media will spout.
Expect the Dolphins in the back end of the playoff race.
Projected Record: 9-8
Minnesota Vikings
Hey, speaking of polarizing quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins has been a productive starter, averaging 4,097 yards and 31 touchdowns with a 1.7 percent interception rate in four seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. In a vacuum, those are encouraging numbers.
The problem is twofold: Minnesota has cracked eight wins only once in that stretch because it regularly loses to the best competition. Cousins can be a safe passer to a fault—especially on third down when a measly checkdown feels inevitable before the snap.
The Vikings are good enough to finish above .500 and flirt with the playoffs. Plus, first-year head coach Kevin O'Connell figures to spice up the offense's style and execution.
But can Minnesota actually be more than a mid-tier team?
Projected Record: 10-7
New England Patriots
Similar to 2021, the New England Patriots have an unimpressive roster with an enormous asterisk. Six-time Super Bowl champion head coach Bill Belichick kinda sorta knows what he's doing.
Last season, Belichick rode a stingy defense and rookie quarterback Mac Jones to 10 wins and a playoff trip. New England far exceeded expectations, no matter that AFC East titleist Buffalo steamrolled the Pats in the opening round.
Why can't history repeat itself? Well, did the Patriots actually improve in the offseason?
Point to internal progress, sure, but 31 other teams can as well. New England hardly added anyone via free agency, the offensive line dropped a couple of key players, and the defense did, too.
Belichick may prove us wrong, but the Pats look average at best.
Projected Record: 8-9
New Orleans Saints
Provided the defense stays healthy, the New Orleans Saints won't be worried about that side of the ball. New head coach Dennis Allen, previously the unit's coordinator, will continue calling plays, and the Saints return almost everyone other than a new-look safety group.
The uncertainty comes on offense, where Jameis Winston is returning from a torn left ACL.
Prior to 2021, he enjoyed huge statistical seasons but was a reckless passer. Last year, that changed. He had a terrific seven-game run with a career-low 1.9 percent interception rate—all without star receiver Michael Thomas.
Winston and Thomas are back, and New Orleans added first-round pick Chris Olave and veteran Jarvis Landry to the receivers room. Optimism is understandably high.
A midseason gauntlet with the Bengals, Cardinals, Raiders, Ravens, Steelers, Rams, 49ers and Bucs will be stressful. But a 4-4 record should keep the Saints in the playoff hunt.
Projected Record: 9-8
New York Giants
Welcome to Daniel Jones' last stand.
The No. 6 pick in 2019, Jones is entering the final season of his contract after the New York Giants declined his fifth-year option in April. So far, he's averaged 6.6 or 6.7 yards per attempt in each season—which, in short, is very bad.
New York's hope is that first-year head coach Brian Daboll can ignite Jones' career. The challenge is a miserable cap situation that prevented the new regime from upgrading the roster.
Daboll's influence should be positive. Barring a borderline miraculous turnaround, though, New York is headed for its sixth consecutive losing season.
Projected Record: 7-10
New York Jets
No matter if second-year quarterback Zach Wilson (knee) is healthy to begin the season, the New York Jets will have a difficult start. Their first 10 games are opposite teams we project for eight-plus victories.
The short version: It might not take long for Gang Green to drift out of the playoff conversation.
But who doesn't love a hot finish? New York rebuilt its roster in the offseason, but the changes were overwhelmingly positive. While the unfamiliar group may need a couple of months to jell, a late-season surge is possible with home games against Chicago, Detroit and Jacksonville.
This may be the Jets' "one year away from being one year away" season.
Projected Record: 6-11
Philadelphia Eagles
In the first year of Nick Sirianni's tenure, quarterback Jalen Hurts propelled the Philadelphia Eagles to a 9-8 record and playoff berth. He accounted for 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns.
As a result, Philly took an aggressive approach in the offseason. It traded for star wideout A.J. Brown and bolstered the defense via free agency and trades, picking up expected starters in edge-rusher Haason Reddick, linebacker Kyzir White and cornerback James Bradberry. On Tuesday, the Eagles traded for safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.
Philadelphia has a favorable 10-game stretch to open the campaign, and a 7-3 record is plausible even if 6-4 is more sensible. A 5-2 finish is within reason as well.
This is admittedly closer to a best-case scenario than most of the other predictions, but the roster construction and schedule are appealing.
Projected Record: 11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin has spent 15 years in charge of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he's never—not once—finished with a losing record.
All good things must come to an end.
In the first season of the post-Ben Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh may experience a revolving door at quarterback. It's easy to envision Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett all getting starts, which is simply not promising.
Now, that's a pessimistic topic. However, the Steelers otherwise have a solid offense, and the defense is built to rebound from a rare disappointing year.
Tomlin is a master of maximizing talent, but this season that may mean Pittsburgh wins eight games instead of five because of the coach's influence.
Projected Record: 8-9
San Francisco 49ers
The unknown of Trey Lance's transition to full-time starter is equal parts captivating and unsettling.
There's no doubt San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan made a calculated decision to bypass Jimmy Garoppolo for Lance. At the same time, he is still a second-year player with 71 career pass attempts. The sample size is undeniably minimal, though the results were encouraging.
One vital advantage for Lance is that he won't shoulder the heaviest burden of leading the Niners to wins. That responsibility can fall on a defense that surrendered just 21.5 points per game in 2021.
San Francisco plays in the tough NFC West, but a friendly start to the season (Bears, Seahawks, Broncos) can ease the impact of showdowns with the Rams and Cardinals.
Projected Record: 10-7
Seattle Seahawks
After trading nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks have an unsurprisingly gloomy outlook.
Last year, they finished 7-10—the franchise's worst record since 2011. Solely because of the quarterback change to Geno Smith—and possibly Drew Lock later on—regression is a reasonable thought.
But that is not all. Seattle both willingly and reluctantly trimmed its roster, releasing veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner and letting a handful of key starters leave via free agency. The replacements, at best, are net-neutrals.
It'll likely be a rough season.
Projected Record: 4-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Welcome to the regular season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You're starting with Dallas, New Orleans, Green Bay and Kansas City. Cool? Cool.
The reassuring note is the schedule eases up considerably after that arduous stretch. As long as the depleted offensive line protects Tom Brady, the Bucs won't be in danger of collapse. The offensive skill positions are loaded, and the defense is terrific.
Besides, the NFC South isn't a huge obstacle. New Orleans has been a constant thorn for Brady, but neither Atlanta nor Carolina has defeated Tampa Bay during his two-year tenure.
The Buccaneers should have little issue returning to the playoffs with first-year head coach Todd Bowles.
Projected Record: 12-5
Tennessee Titans
If the Tennessee Titans don't win early, they'll be playing a dangerous game in November and beyond.
Following a trip to Kansas City on Nov. 6, the Titans alternate home and road contests with Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Additionally, the Chargers and Cowboys await in December.
Beating the AFC South rival Colts is always important, but October's pair of clashes will be especially vital for Tennessee.
Derrick Henry missed nine games last season, so a healthy return would be a huge boost. But the departure of star receiver A.J. Brown and Ryan Tannehill's subpar 2021 are reasons for distrust.
Projected Record: 9-8
Washington Commanders
Carson Wentz is simultaneously a mid- or low-tier quarterback and a likely upgrade for the Washington Commanders.
Given that the Commanders won seven games in 2020 and 2021, they figure to stick around that range with Wentz.
Washington made only a couple of changes on either side of the ball, which is similarly both positive and negative. Other than the absences of longtime guard Brandon Scherff, who signed with the Jaguars, and edge-rusher Chase Young, who is recovering from a knee injury, Wentz is basically the only big variable.
If he and the Commanders thrive, Washington can keep him. If not, he'll be a free agent next offseason.
We're leaning more toward the latter outcome.
Projected Record: 8-9
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