New Jaguars receiver Christian Kirk (James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Every NFL Team's Biggest X-Factor Heading into 2022 Season

Kristopher Knox

With the 2022 NFL preseason in full swing, we have some idea of what rosters are going to look like this year. Many position battles remain unsettled, but the core players and key pieces have been established.

The reality, though, is that surprises emerge every year to make their teams substantially better. These X-factors can come be undervalued rookies, players returning from injury, former backups in starting roles and those breaking out of slumps.

In 2021, for example, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow returned from a torn ACL to lead his team to the Super Bowl during his sophomore campaign. The Chicago Bears didn't enjoy the same success, but defensive end Robert Quinn bounced back from a dismal two-sack season to tally 18.5 quarterback takedowns.

Here we'll examine one X-factor for each NFL team. These aren't highly touted rookie first-round picks or players coming off Pro Bowl or All-Pro campaigns. However, each one listed has the potential to positively impact his team's record in 2022.

Arizona Cardinals: WR Marquise Brown

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The Arizona Cardinals won't have star receiver DeAndre Hopkins for six games this season, as he has been suspended for a violation of the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy. For at least a stretch, quarterback Kyler Murray will need a new top target.

It could be wide receiver Marquise Brown, who was acquired from the Baltimore Ravens in a draft-day trade. A first-round pick in 2019, Brown never quite developed into a No. 1 option in Baltimore. However, he was a 1,000-yard receiver last season and played at Oklahoma with Murray.

With Murray at quarterback in 2018, Brown caught 75 passes for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns.

If the two can rekindle their college chemistry, Arizona will have another big-time weapon to go with Hopkins (when available), A.J. Green and tight end Zach Ertz. If Brown is the player we saw with the Ravens, he'll be a fine complementary deep threat but may not drastically impact the passing attack. He may merely serve as a replacement for departed free agent Christian Kirk.

The caveat here is that Brown was arrested on criminal speeding charges earlier this month and could face league or team discipline.

Atlanta Falcons: QB Marcus Mariota

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The Atlanta Falcons traded longtime starting quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts this offseason. They brought in 2015 first-round pick Marcus Mariota, who was quickly named as the starter over rookie third-rounder Desmond Ridder.

"Obviously, we've got a plan for each of them. Marcus is the starter," quarterbacks coach Charles London said following Atlanta's first practice of camp, per Josh Kendall of The Athletic. "That's how we're going into this thing."

We saw flashes of promise from Mariota during his time as the Tennessee Titans' starter. He helped take Tennessee to the playoffs in 2017. If he can be a steady presence under center, Atlanta could surprise in 2022.

If Mariota flounders, however, he'll likely give way to Ridder at some point in the season. If and when that happens, the rest of the Falcons' campaign will be about evaluating and developing the University of Cincinnati product.

Mariota is an X-factor because his play will determine Atlanta's goals and its direction over the next several months.

Baltimore Ravens: RB J.K. Dobbins

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While Mariota is looking to revitalize his career, the Ravens know they have something special in quarterback Lamar Jackson. Staying healthy will be key for the Louisville product, who missed five games last season because of illness and an ankle injury.

However, Baltimore will want to support Jackson with a strong ground game. That proved difficult in 2021, as running backs J.K. Dobbins (ACL), Gus Edwards (ACL) and Justice Hill (Achilles) all suffered season-ending injuries before Week 1.

A lot will hinge on Dobbins' recovery, as the 2020 second-round pick showed loads of potential as a rookie. He finished with 805 rushing yards, a 6.0 yards-per-carry average and nine touchdowns on the ground.

Dobbins can be Baltimore's bell-cow back if he's back to pre-injury form early in the season. He isn't there just yet.

"How he does in the next week to two weeks, to me, is going to tell the story," head coach John Harbaugh said, per Kevin Eck of the team's official website.

If Dobbins can help Jackson lead a potent rushing attack, the Ravens should be right back in the thick of the AFC North race. If he can't, the team may have to get creative on offense.

Buffalo Bills: Edge Gregory Rousseau

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The Buffalo Bills made a big offseason splash when they signed star pass-rusher Von Miller to a six-year, $120 million deal. Miller, who had four sacks in four postseason games for the Los Angeles Rams last year, should further boost a Bills defense that ranked first in yards and points allowed in 2021.

While the defense was stout last season, it often had to get creative to produce sacks. The Bills had 42, but Mario Addison led the team with only seven. No other player had more than four takedowns, and Addison departed in free agency.

If Buffalo hopes to field an elite pass-rushing tandem, it needs to see more out of 2021 first-round pick Gregory Rousseau. The Miami product showed flashes as a rookie, with four sacks and 24 quarterback pressures, but he isn't yet the elite complement to Miller that the Bills need.

Rousseau logged just one sack in his final 12 regular-season games and none in the playoffs.

If Rousseau is able to take the next step as a sack artist, the Bills should have a potent pair of pass-rushers who are capable of harassing quarterbacks on their own. If he can't, Buffalo may have to continue rotating rushers and bringing extra defenders on the blitz.

Carolina Panthers: QB Baker Mayfield

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The Carolina Panthers stumbled to a 5-12 record last season despite having a new quarterback in 2018 third overall pick Sam Darnold. Injuries to star running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring, ankle) played a role, but the former New York Jets signal-caller posted a paltry passer rating of only 71.9.

This offseason, Carolina traded for 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield. Mayfield also had a poor and injury-impacted 2021 campaign (83.1 rating), but he's accomplished far more in the NFL than Darnold.

In 2018, he set a since-broken rookie record with 27 touchdown passes. In 2020, he led the Cleveland Browns to their first playoff win as an expansion franchise. If he can elevate the Panthers' quarterback play, the team should at least be relevant in the NFC South.

First, though, he'll have to beat out Darnold, and after one preseason game, it's still too close to call.

"They were both in command," head coach Matt Rhule said after the 23-21 victory over the Washington Commanders on Saturday, per Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press. "Sam got us in the end zone. Baker led us down the field. So it looked like both guys played well in terms of production."

If Mayfield can win the job and play like the quarterback he was in 2018 and 2020, the Panthers could be dangerous. If he fails to do both, Carolina will most likely be irrelevant again.

Chicago Bears: WR Velus Jones Jr.

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For the Chicago Bears, this season will be all about evaluating second-year quarterback Justin Fields. The Ohio State product showed a few glimpses of promise as a rookie but finished with a 2-8 record and a passer rating of only 73.2.

Chicago didn't do much to upgrade Fields' receiver group in the offseason either. The Bears brought in Equanimeous St. Brown, N'Keal Harry and rookie third-round pick Velus Jones Jr. while losing Allen Robinson II in free agency. St. Brown was a part-time player for the Green Bay Packers, and Harry recently underwent ankle surgery.

This means that a lot will be on Jones' shoulders if the Bears' receiving corps is to improve.

Jones, who spent six seasons at USC and Tennessee, was never a prolific receiver in college. His best campaign came in 2021, when he finished with 62 receptions, 807 yards and seven touchdowns. However, he shone at the NFL Scouting Combine, running a 4.31-second 40-yard dash.

If the 25-year-old can capitalize on his physical potential as a rookie, he should pair with Darnell Mooney to give Fields a solid receiving duo. If he struggles to acclimate to the NFL, though, he may be most impactful as a return specialist. He was SEC Co-Special Teams Player of the Year in 2021.

But that would leave Fields with an underwhelming receiving corps once again.

Cincinnati Bengals: TE Hayden Hurst

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By our definition, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow could qualify as an X-factor. He isn't a rookie and was snubbed for the Pro Bowl in 2021. However, he led Cincinnati to Super Bowl LVI and is already on the fringe of the elite quarterback ranks.

Burrow, though, lost one of his favorite targets when C.J. Uzomah departed in free agency. Uzomah wasn't one of Cincinnati's top producers, but Burrow often targeted him in critical situations.

The 29-year-old tight end finished the year with 49 catches for 493 yards and five touchdowns.

With Uzomah gone, Burrow will look to lean on new tight end Hayden Hurst. A 2018 first-round pick of the AFC North rival Ravens, Hurst spent the last two seasons in Atlanta. He was the No. 2 tight end behind Kyle Pitts in 2021 but caught 56 passes for 571 yards and six touchdowns in the previous season.

If Hurst can replicate his 2020 production and build the sort of chemistry with Burrow that Uzomah had, the Bengals offense is unlikely to miss a beat. If he cannot, Uzomah's absence will be felt, and Burrow will be left looking for a new outlet option to complement wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Cleveland Browns: WR David Bell

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The Cleveland Browns' receiving corps looks a lot different than it did this time last year. Odell Beckham Jr. was released just after the 2021 trade deadline, while slot specialist Jarvis Landry was released in the offseason.

The Browns traded for Amari Cooper to serve as their new No. 1 receiver, and he'll presumably start opposite third-year pro and 2021 team receiving leader Donovan Peoples-Jones.

The X-factor here is rookie third-round pick David Bell. The Purdue product, who caught 93 passes for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns last season, has the potential to be Cleveland's new staple in the slot. However, he opened camp on the physically unable to perform list with a foot injury.

Bell has since been cleared from the PUP list but will need to play catch-up during the remainder of the preseason.

The Browns are expected to utilize a run-oriented offense centered around Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. However, they'll need a functional passing game to complement it if they hope to contend in the talent-rich AFC North. Having Bell as a reliable target in the slot would go a long way toward having one.

Dallas Cowboys: OT Terence Steele

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The Dallas Cowboys parted with two key members of their offensive line this offseason, losing guard Connor Williams in free agency and releasing right tackle La'el Collins. To help replace Williams, Dallas used a first-round pick on Tulsa lineman Tyler Smith.

To replace Collins, the Cowboys are moving Terence Steele into a full-time role.

Steele has been a valuable backup at both tackle spots and at guard over the past two campaigns, though consistency hasn't been his best attribute. In 2020, he was responsible for six penalties and nine sacks surrendered, according to Pro Football Focus. He allowed only two sacks last season but was called for eight penalties.

Dallas needs to see more consistency and fewer mistakes from Steele because there are already enough questions along the line. Zack Martin and Tyron Smith are both quality players when healthy but have each dealt with injuries over the past two seasons. Center Tyler Biadasz had 11 penalties in 2021, according to PPF, while Tyler Smith is unproven.

Steele needs to serve as a rock on the right side in 2022. If he can do that, Dallas may again have one of the better offensive lines in the conference. If he can't, it may be a difficult transition year for the line and quarterback Dak Prescott.

Denver Broncos: TE Albert Okwuegbunam

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The Denver Broncos have a new quarterback in Russell Wilson, who was acquired in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks.

Wilson will have a strong cast of skill-position players in Denver, with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams headlining the group. The X-factor in Denver's offense will be tight end Albert Okwuegbunam.

Former Broncos starter Noah Fant was sent to Seattle in the Wilson deal. However, Okwuegbunam flashed his potential as the No. 2 tight end last season. In 14 games with six starts, he caught 33 passes for 330 yards and two touchdowns.

With Fant gone, Okwuegbunam is already in line for an expanded role. That role could further increase, especially in the red zone, with 6'4" wideout Tim Patrick out for the season. Patrick caught 53 passes for 734 yards and five touchdowns last season but suffered a torn right ACL during training camp.

With Wilson leading the charge, Denver's offense should be plenty potent in 2022. However, if Okwuegbunam proves to be an efficient and effective starter at tight end, the unit could be one of the best in the NFL.

Detroit Lions: WR DJ Chark

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Jared Goff may not be the Detroit Lions' quarterback of the future, but he can be a serviceable starter in 2022. He wasn't awful last season, finishing with a passer rating of 91.5—his best since his 2018 Pro Bowl campaign.

The Lions have an emerging star receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown and a reliable tight end in T.J. Hockenson. They added rookie first-round pick Jameson Williams to the receiving corps in April.

The addition of former Jacksonville Jaguars receiver DJ Chark didn't gain as much attention as the Williams pick, but it could pay huge dividends. The 25-year-old was a Pro Bowler in 2019 and looks to be putting last year's fractured ankle behind him.

Chark dazzled earlier this month, catching two touchdowns in Detroit's intrasquad scrimmage.

If he is back to pre-injury form and can continue making plays in the regular season, he can boost the passing game significantly. This may be especially true early in the campaign. Williams is continuing to recover from a torn ACL suffered in the national title game.

Green Bay Packers: WR Christian Watson

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The Packers traded star No. 1 receiver Davante Adams this offseason. Replacing him and his production (1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021) won't be easy.

The team will expect a lot from veteran Randall Cobb and former No. 2 receiver Allen Lazard. However, a lot will hinge on the play of second-round rookie Christian Watson. Unfortunately, the North Dakota State product has been sidelined by a knee injury.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, though, believes that Watson should be ready for the regular season.

"It’s not a big concern. He's a really smart kid," Rodgers said, per Zach Kruse of Packers Wire. "He is a smart kid. It'd be nice to get him off the PUP so he could do some of the walkthrough stuff, but he'll be fine."

If Watson is ready to roll, he could be a huge asset. The 6'5" pass-catcher had 43 receptions for 801 yards and seven touchdowns last season. He has the physical tools to eventually take over as Green Bay's new No. 1 receiver.

However, if Watson cannot get healthy and up to speed, the Packers may be forced to enter the season with a patchwork receiving corps and no clear-cut option as a top target.

Houston Texans: QB Davis Mills

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The Houston Texans have a new head coach in Lovie Smith, new running backs in Marlon Mack and Dameon Pierce and some new defensive pieces in Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes. However, their season will be dictated by the play of second-year quarterback Davis Mills.

The Stanford product performed well as a rookie, especially given Houston's underwhelming supporting cast. He only went 2-9 as a starter but finished with a respectable passer rating of 88.8.

Mills, who appeared in only 14 college games, may only be scratching the surface of his potential.

"He really got off to kind of a slow start, but then he really finished strong, and he showed he has a lot of potential with this team. And as they build pieces around him, I think he's only going to get better," NFL Hall of Famer Warren Moon told ESPN Houston's The Wheelhouse last month (h/t Anthony Wood of FanNation).

This season, Mills has a legitimate chance to solidify himself as Houston's quarterback of the future. If he cannot, the Texans can look to a loaded 2023 quarterback class headlined by the likes of Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud. This makes Mills a massive X-factor because his play could impact far more than just this season.

Indianapolis Colts: QB Matt Ryan

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New Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan is one of the biggest X-factors in the NFL this season.

The Colts were nearly a playoff team in 2021, and with star running back Jonathan Taylor chewing up defenses—and Indy's ninth-ranked scoring defense putting in plenty of work—they looked to be a tough postseason out. However, the play of quarterback Carson Wentz just wasn't enough.

Ryan, though, is the steady veteran hand that Indianapolis missed last season. While he hasn't been a Pro Bowler since 2016, he's long been an above-average starter. His passer rating last dipped below 90.0 in 2015.

Last season wasn't the best for Ryan, however. He was sacked 40 times and often asked to carry an offense that ranked 31st in rushing and lacked weapons aside from tight end Kyle Pitts. He was under pressure on 27.9 percent of his dropbacks.

At 37 years old, Ryan should have a few good years left in the tank. If he does, Indianapolis could be among the AFC's most dangerous teams. The dreaded cliff could come at any time, though, making Ryan one of the most intriguing offseason acquisitions to follow in 2022.

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Christian Kirk

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The Jacksonville Jaguars will be looking for a second-year leap from 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence. To help support their franchise quarterback, they signed wideout Christian Kirk to a four-year, $72 million deal in free agency.

Kirk now figures to be a focal point of the passing attack alongside Marvin Jones Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., fellow offseason addition Zay Jones and running back Travis Etienne Jr.

The question, of course, is whether Kirk will live up to his contract and build upon his breakout 2021 campaign.

Last season, he set career highs in receptions (77) and receiving yards (982) while catching five touchdowns. He also provided a quarterback rating of 112.2 when targeted. That production, of course, came in Kliff Kingsbury's offense and with Kyler Murray at quarterback in Arizona.

If Kirk can be as effective with Lawrence and offensive coordinator Press Taylor, Jacksonville will be happy with its investment. He has the makings of a quarterback-friendly slot specialist who will help get the most out of Lawrence in the quarterback's pivotal second season.

Kansas City Chiefs: S Justin Reid

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Over the past three seasons, safety Tyrann Mathieu has been a leader on the Kansas City Chiefs defense, earning two Pro Bowl nods and two first-team All-Pro selections. Last season alone, he logged 76 tackles, a sack, three interceptions and a defensive touchdown.

However, the Chiefs allowed Mathieu to depart in free agency, signing 25-year-old Justin Reid to replace him.

Reid hasn't received the accolades that Mathieu has over the years, but he believes he can step in as Kansas City's defensive centerpiece.

"That's my strong point. I feel like that's the reason why they brought me in," Reid said, per Jordan Foote of FanNation. "Being a field general on the back end and being able to see the whole picture."

By replacing Mathieu with Reid, the Chiefs got five years younger at the position. The question is whether they'll get the same high-level play and leadership.

Reid has some big shoes to fill, but if he can adequately replace what Mathieu provided, coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's defense should continue building on the growth it showed down the stretch of the 2021 regular season.

Las Vegas Raiders: OL Alex Leatherwood

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The Las Vegas Raiders were a playoff team in 2021 and added elite playmakers in pass-rusher Chandler Jones and wideout Davante Adams. But the offensive line allowed 40 sacks last season.

The biggest question mark on that line is 2021 first-round pick Alex Leatherwood. He played mostly at guard as a rookie and was responsible for 14 penalties and eight sacks surrendered, according to Pro Football Focus.

The former Alabama tackle will likely start again this season, as guard Denzelle Good announced his retirement last month. If he can help solidify the line with a bounce-back season under new line coach Carmen Bricillo, it would go a long way toward making Las Vegas a legitimate title contender. And the offseason buzz has been promising.

"He's been moved around a few places on the offensive line, as the coaching staff tests each player's versatility. Nevertheless, Leatherwood has shown fluidity and improvement in his footwork from last year," Levi Edwards of the team's official site wrote.

If Leatherwood again underwhelms, though, the Raiders line could be a fatal flaw.

Los Angeles Chargers: Edge Khalil Mack

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The Los Angeles Chargers made two big additions this offseason to improve a defense that tied for 29th in points allowed in 2021. They signed Pro Bowl cornerback J.C. Jackson and traded for pass-rusher Khalil Mack.

While Mack is a six-time Pro Bowler, he had a disappointing injury-impacted 2021 campaign with the Bears. The 31-year-old logged six sacks in seven games but landed on injured reserve with a foot issue that required surgery.

Will Mack be back to pre-injury form with the Chargers this season? That's fair to ask. It's also fair to wonder just how much he has left in the tank. He had a good-not-great 31 quarterback pressures two years ago after logging 45 in 2019. Mack last topped double-digit sacks in 2018.

If he isn't at 100 percent or is on the decline, Chargers fans will be disappointed. If, however, he returns to form, he and Joey Bosa could form one of the league's top pass-rushing duos.

"There are a lot of things that are going on between them that not many people would understand," head coach Brandon Staley said, per ESPN's Lindsey Thiry. "... It's really special.

The Chargers have a strong roster, but they'll need a quality defense to be true title contenders. A bounce-back season from Mack could make that happen.

Los Angeles Rams: WR Allen Robinson II

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The Los Angeles Rams lost a few key pieces from last year's Super Bowl run, including edge-rusher Von Miller and wideouts Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods. They might have gotten a huge replacement for Beckham and Woods in former Chicago Bears wideout Allen Robinson II, though.

Robinson caught 102 passes for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns in 2020 while playing with Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles. Last season, however, he caught only 38 passes for 410 yards and one touchdown in 12 games and spent part of the year dealing with the effects of COVID-19.

The early buzz suggests that Robinson is back to form and ready to be a key cog in L.A.'s offense.

"It didn’t take long for Robinson to produce his own wow plays," Gilbert Manzano of the Orange County Register recently wrote. "They came in a variety of bunches over the past two weeks. ... And it didn’t matter if it was Stafford or backup quarterback John Wolford making the passes."

If Robinson is back to being a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver, the Rams offense should be just as potent as it was with Woods—who suffered a torn ACL nine games into last season—and later Beckham in the lineup.

Miami Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa

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Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has yet to have the success of his 2020 first-round brethren Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The Alabama product does have a 13-8 record as a starter, but he's thrown only 27 touchdowns in two seasons and has a good-not-great career passer rating of 88.8.

The Dolphins spent this offseason loading up on pieces to put around Tagovailoa. They hired an offensive head coach in Mike McDaniel, added Connor Williams and Terron Armstead to the offensive line and signed running backs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel. They also traded for six-time Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins won 19 games over the past two seasons, but they haven't made the playoffs since 2016. They have the talent to be an AFC contender, but they need Tagovailoa to be a consistent and above-average signal-caller to challenge Buffalo in the AFC East.

If Tagovailoa doesn't take a big step in his development with this supporting cast, Miami may be weighing other quarterback options in 2023.

Minnesota Vikings: Edge Za'Darius Smith

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The Minnesota Vikings fell short of the playoffs with an 8-9 record last season, though not because of their offense. They were 14th in points scored and 12th in yards gained, but they were too often done in by their 30th-ranked defense.

Minnesota might change its defensive fortunes thanks to the addition of former Green Bay Packers pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith. He has the potential to form a dangerous pass-rushing tandem with Danielle Hunter.

However, Smith will have to put his 2021 injury concerns behind him. He appeared in only one game last season because of a back injury.

Smith's production in Vikings camp thus far has been up-and-down, according to The Athletic's Arif Hasan. Hunter also suffered a season-ending injury (pectoral) last season, but he appears ready for the 2022 season.

"While Hunter continues to look like an elite pass rusher, Smith has been less steady in his production," Hasan wrote. "When lined up over center, Smith has looked remarkable, but the Vikings haven’t been shy about putting him all over the formation."

If Smith can regain the Pro Bowl form he last showed in 2020, the Vikings defense could be a problem for opposing quarterbacks. If he can't, it's likely to struggle once again.

New England Patriots: CB Malcolm Butler

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The New England Patriots made the 2021 postseason thanks in no small part to their fourth-ranked defense. However, they lost a key piece of that defense when cornerback J.C. Jackson, who snagged eight interceptions and had a league-high 23 passes defended last season, signed with the Los Angeles Chargers in free agency.

The Patriots brought back Malcolm Butler this offseason, but it would be unrealistic to expect the 32-year-old to replicate Jackson's production. New England needs him to again be a high-level starter, though.

Butler was a Pro Bowler for the Patriots in 2015, won two Super Bowls with the franchise and was the hero of Super Bowl XLIX. However, he last played for the franchise in 2017.

Butler was solid for the Tennessee Titans when he last played in 2020. He snagged four interceptions and allowed an opposing passer rating of only 83.2 in coverage. If he can yield similar results in New England's defense, it will soften the blow of Jackson's departure.

However, if Butler flounders as he did with the Titans in 2018 (101.4 opposing passer rating), the Patriots defense could be poised for a significant decline.

New Orleans Saints: QB Jameis Winston

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The New Orleans Saints lost head coach Sean Payton to retirement this offseason. However, they should maintain some level of continuity since they promoted defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to replace Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. remains in place.

That's good news for a Saints team that narrowly missed the playoffs at 9-8 last season. However, a lot will hinge on the health and play of quarterback Jameis Winston.

Winston performed well in 2021, going 5-2 as a starter and posting a 102.8 quarterback rating, but a torn ACL cut his season short. He has recovered from that injury, but he is now dealing with a foot sprain, which prompted New Orleans to add quarterback K.J. Costello.

Winston should have no problem beating out Andy Dalton for the starting job if healthy. The question is whether he's ready to start by Week 1 and if he can replicate the efficiency he showed for seven games last season.

The Saints have three big receiving weapons in Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave that they didn't last season. If Winston can take advantage of them without returning to his previous mistake-prone ways—he threw a league-high 30 interceptions with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2019— New Orleans will be a factor in the NFC playoff race.

New York Giants: RB Saquon Barkley

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The New York Giants shouldn't enter the 2022 season with playoff expectations. Instead, they should be focused on building for the future and evaluating quarterback Daniel Jones.

Both tasks will be made easier if running back Saquon Barkley can return to his Pro Bowl form and stay healthy throughout the regular season.

Barkley, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, racked up more than 2,000 scrimmage yards as a rookie. He had another solid season in 2019, but he suffered a torn ACL early in the 2020 campaign and was injury-hampered and inefficient last season.

In camp, Barkley has reportedly performed like the superstar he was back in 2018.

"Center Jon Feliciano said afterward this version of Barkley is the best he has seen from a running back on any of his teams," ESPN's Jordan Raanan wrote.

If Barkley can again be a dangerous dual threat, it will give New York a cornerstone upon which to build its offense in 2022. It will also allow new head coach Brian Daboll to get a fair assessment of Jones before the quarterback's rookie contract expires.

Jones didn't have the support of a healthy Barkley over the past two seasons and finished 2020 and 2021 with passer ratings of 80.4 and 84.8, respectively.

New York Jets: QB Zach Wilson

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The New York Jets took quarterback Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in the 2021 draft, but he struggled mightily as a rookie. The BYU product finished with nine touchdown passes, 11 interceptions and a passer rating of only 69.7. He did have 185 rushing yards and four scores on the ground but went just 3-10 as a starter.

The Jets put a lot of work into revamping Wilson's supporting cast in the offseason. They signed guard Laken Tomlinson in free agency and strengthened their tight end room by adding C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin and rookie Jeremy Ruckert. New York also added first-round receiver Garrett Wilson and second-round running back Breece Hall.

The Jets offense appears dangerous on paper, but it will need Wilson to play better than he did as a rookie. His development took a hit during the preseason opener, as he suffered a bone bruise and meniscus tear that's expected to sideline him for 2-4 weeks, according to ESPN's Rich Cimini.

That means Jets fans will likely need to wait until at least Week 1 to see Wilson under center again.

Philadelphia Eagles: WR A.J. Brown

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Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts performed well in his first season as a full-time starter last year. While he posted a passer rating of only 87.2, he ran for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns, helped lead the league's top-ranked rushing attack and took Philadelphia to the postseason.

The Eagles will be looking for Hurts to take another leap as a passer in 2022, and the addition of wideout A.J. Brown should help tremendously in that regard. They acquired Brown in a draft-day trade with the Tennessee Titans and then gave him a four-year, $100 million contract extension.

In 2020, Brown finished with 1,075 yards, 11 touchdowns and a Pro Bowl nod. If he can replicate that sort of production, he should pair with DeVonta Smith to give the Eagles a tremendous receiving tandem.

However, Brown was less productive last season. He finished with only 869 receiving yards and five touchdowns while missing four games with a chest injury.

Brown has been Hurts' "favorite target" during training camp, according to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, so the early buzz is positive. Until he proves that during the regular season, though, he remains the biggest X-factor of the Philadelphia offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Kenny Pickett

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Veteran Mitch Trubisky figures to be the Pittsburgh Steelers' Week 1 starter. He has more starting experience than Mason Rudolph and rookie first-round pick Kenny Pickett, and he's seen the most work with the first-team offense in training camp.

"I can’t come up with a realistic scenario where [Trubisky] doesn’t win the starting job barring injury, as he has been entrenched in that position since he was signed as a free agent in the offseason," Paul Zeise of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote.

However, Pickett is the future, and he will eventually progress enough to take over as the starter. That point may come sooner than later.

In his preseason debut against the Seattle Seahawks, Pickett completed 13 of 15 passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning score with only three seconds remaining. Much of his work came against players who won't make Seattle's final roster, but his accuracy, field vision and poise were evident.

If Pickett continues to show growth on the practice field, the Steelers might have no choice but to turn to him right away. If he doesn't, Pittsburgh is unlikely to put him on the field before he's ready and will likely stick with Trubisky or Rudolph.

Either way, Pickett's development will dictate Pittsburgh's plans at quarterback.

San Francisco 49ers: QB Trey Lance

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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance didn't play much as a rookie in 2021. He saw some playing time in a change-of-pace role and made two starts in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (calf, hand injuries), but he largely remains an unknown.

Lance did show promise in that limited action, finishing with 603 passing yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions and a 97.3 passer rating. He also rushed for 168 yards and a score and went 1-1 as a starter.

In San Francisco's preseason opener last week, Lance went 4-of-5 for 92 yards and a touchdown.

On the other hand, Lance is inexperienced and has struggled against the 49ers defense in camp, according to Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. He'll be the full-time starter moving forward—Garoppolo doesn't even have a playbook, according to Peter King of NBC Sports—but it's hard to know what to expect from the North Dakota State product.

The 49ers reached the NFC title game last season, so they should remain a threat in the NFC West if Lance can be even an average starter. However, if he stumbles and ends up being a step down from what the 49ers had in Garoppolo (31-14 as the starter), the Los Angeles Rams or Arizona Cardinals could run away with the division.

Seattle Seahawks: RB Rashaad Penny

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After trading away franchise quarterback Russell Wilson this offseason, the Seattle Seahawks' options at quarterback for Week 1 are Drew Lock and Geno Smith. Neither of them will carry the offense the way Wilson long did.

To be competitive this season, the Seahawks will instead need to lean heavily on their ground game. They used a second-round pick on Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III, but fifth-year pro Rashaad Penny is the bigger X-factor.

Seattle drafted Penny with the No. 27 overall pick in 2018, but injuries and inconsistency marred his first three campaigns. He saw the field sporadically as a rookie, suffered a torn ACL in 2019 and appeared in only three games in 2020.

Last season, though, the San Diego State product exploded for 671 rushing yards and six touchdowns in his final five games. Seattle re-signed him on a one-year, $5.8 million deal in the offseason.

If Penny can replicate his late 2021 success and stay on the field, he and Walker could give Seattle one of the best running back tandems in the league. That's a big "if" given Penny's injury history and the fact that he missed the preseason opener with a groin injury.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: C Robert Hainsey

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are running it back with the 45-year-old Tom Brady under center. Protecting Brady will be key, but Tampa already lost starting center Ryan Jensen to a knee injury during training camp.

"We don't know the severity of it, per se, but I do know he'll miss some significant time, up to a couple months," head coach Todd Bowles said, per ESPN's Jenna Laine.

Jensen's likely replacement, 2021 third-round pick Robert Hainsey, is now Tampa Ba's biggest X-factor.

The Notre Dame product played only 31 offensive snaps as a rookie and will have some big shoes to fill as a first-time starter. Jensen was a 17-game starter and a Pro Bowler last season.

"He's behind a great player, so he just needs time," Bowles told reporters of Hainsey.

If the 24-year-old can avoid being a liability in Jensen's stead, Brady should be in line for another standout season. If he isn't up to the challenge, though, Brady might wish that he had stayed retired.

The Buccaneers have plenty of talent across their roster, but they'll only go as far as Brady can take them.

Tennessee Titans: WR Robert Woods

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After trading away No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown during the draft, the Tennessee Titans will look to replace him with a bit of a committee. Two-time Pro Bowl tight end Austin Hooper and rookie first-round pick Treylon Burks carry big expectations, while trade acquisition Robert Woods is more of an X-factor.

The Titans acquired Woods, who is working his way back from a torn ACL, from the Los Angeles Rams for a 2023 sixth-round pick. That isn't a huge investment, but he Woods could be a massive addition if he's fully recovered from his injury.

In nine games last year, Woods caught 45 passes for 556 yards and four touchdowns. He provided a passer rating of 103.3 when targeted.

Woods' goal is to be ready at the start of the season.

"My biggest objective is being ready for Week 1," Woods said, per Ben Arthur of The Tennessean.

If Woods returns to his pre-injury form, he could help the Titans get back toward the top of the AFC mix. If he can't, a lot of the responsibility will fall on Burks.

Washington Commanders: QB Carson Wentz

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To get back into the playoff mix this season, the Washington Commanders will need the Pro Bowl-caliber Carson Wentz we last saw in 2017 with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Wentz, the second overall pick in the 2016 draft, looked to be on his way to being a perennial Pro Bowler during his sophomore campaign. However, he suffered a torn ACL toward the end of that season and has largely disappointed since.

Wentz finished the 2020 campaign with a lowly passer rating of 72.8 and was eventually benched for Jalen Hurts. The Eagles traded him to the Indianapolis Colts last March, but he struggled down the stretch. Needing one win in the final two weeks, Wentz flopped (333 combined passing yards, two touchdowns, two turnovers) and cost the Colts a shot at the postseason.

Washington believes that Wentz can rebound in 2022.

"We have a lot of confidence in what we've seen so far," head coach Ron Rivera said on SiriusXM NFL Radio.

If Wentz rebounds, the Commanders could be in the thick of the NFC East race. If he flops for a third straight season (and with a third team), Washington will again be largely irrelevant.

Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Contract information via Spotrac.

   

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