Much as the great starting fives from past title-winners or, more recently, last season's Boston Celtics might make you think otherwise, there's no such thing as a perfect first unit in the NBA.

All the best ones have a weak point, even if we're only talking in relative terms—a suspect defender to target, or a shooter to ignore. A guy who can be bullied down low, blown by on the perimeter or otherwise exploited without fear of reprisal.

Sometimes, those weak points don't emerge until the heat of playoff battle, when the search for frailty takes on greater significance. Often, the eventual champ is the team that does the best job of hiding its own lineup shortcoming while most effectively exposing the opponent's.

Using the predicted 2022-23 starting lineups we ranked here, we'll go through every team and find its pressure point. If that seems cruel, or like we're singling players out, at least we're only naming these guys and explaining why they land on the list. In the real world, opposing teams go into every game with their sights set on these soft targets, intent to ruthlessly capitalize.

Atlanta Hawks: De'Andre Hunter

Starting Five: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela

The Atlanta Hawks return four starters from last season, and three of them—Trae Young, Clint Capela and John Collins—ranked first, second and third on the team in Estimated Plus/Minus. Collins' plus-1.8 was the lowest of that group, and even that figure was good enough to rank in the 86th percentile league-wide.

The fourth returner, De'Andre Hunter, is the answer to "which one of these things doesn't belong?" when it comes to Atlanta's incumbent first-unit options. He produced a minus-2.0 EPM in 2021-22, and he also comes with health concerns after playing just 76 games combined over the last two years. A double-figure scorer in all three seasons of his career, Hunter is also the Hawks wing typically tasked with the toughest defensive assignment. Dejounte Murray's arrival means Hunter thankfully won't also have to wrangle guards.

Hunter's importance to Atlanta's playoff plans might make him seem like an odd choice as a weak link, but the difficulty of his job and the injury-related infrequency with which he's been able to perform it make him a clear vulnerability.

If everything breaks right, Hunter will resume his path toward becoming one of the league's best three-and-D role players. But it's not a coincidence that others from his draft class, with the San Antonio Spurs' Keldon Johnson being a particularly good comp, have already gotten their rookie extensions. That Hunter hasn't earned the same commitment speaks to the question marks surrounding him.

If calling him a weak link seems too harsh, we can all agree he's the Hawks starter with the most to prove in the coming season.

Boston Celtics: Al Horford

Starting Five: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Robert Williams III

Al Horford isn't so much a weak link as a victim of belonging to last year's best regular-season starting group.

Age is a factor for the veteran big man heading into his 16th season. Horford turned 36 during the 2022 playoffs, and though he was an unquestionably positive contributor on both ends last year, Father Time's encroachment means there's no "if" involved in Horford's decline. It's a "when" situation.

One could imagine him being just a half-step slower on switches against guards, which would have a major impact on the way Boston defends. Horford's ability to survive against quicker opponents makes him a key figure; his success in that role allows Robert Williams III to lurk off the ball and blow up opponent actions near the rim. The cascading effect of a diminished Horford probably wouldn't doom the Celtics, as Grant Williams seems ready to handle the same role. But that fact doesn't do anything to help Horford avoid weak-link status here.

We could make this much simpler and use the default route like we did with Hunter in Atlanta. Boston's other four starters include an All-NBA superstar in Jayson Tatum, an All-Star wing in Jaylen Brown, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Marcus Smart and the guy who might have won that same award if his health had cooperated in Williams.

Those guys aren't exactly the kinds of players opponents look to attack.

Brooklyn Nets: Joe Harris

Starting Five: Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, Joe Harris, Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons

Joe Harris is one of the greatest shooters to ever live. If that feels hyperbolic, consider that he's drilled at least 46.6 percent of his treys in three of the last four seasons and sits in fourth place on the all-time long-range accuracy list. All that, plus defense that could be described as at least break-even, and we've got yet another excellent player singled out as a weak spot.

Harris, though, only played 14 games last season because of an ankle injury that required surgery. While his stroke from beyond the arc should be unaffected, an operation and a layoff that long could cost the veteran a step on D that he couldn't afford to lose entering his age-31 season. The Duncan Robinson comparison is somewhat unfair because Harris was so much better defensively to begin with, but the fact that Robinson lost his starting gig with the Miami Heat last season because his shooting and defense dipped illustrates the downside risk attached to the Nets gunner.

Just as we did in the overall starting lineup rankings, we're slotting Simmons into the center spot over Nic Claxton—mostly because it seems unlikely we'll ever see anything like this Nets group because of the trade chatter surrounding Durant and Irving. If this is a pure hypothetical anyway, we might as well have some fun with it. That said, if Claxton were included here, perhaps at the expense of Curry, he might give Harris a run for his weak-link money. The 23-year-old center has never been a regular starter and has proved far less in his career than anyone else up for consideration.

Charlotte Hornets: Mason Plumlee

Starting Five: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee

Washington ranked last among the starters listed above in Estimated Plus/Minus last season, and one could easily make a health-based case against Hayward. But Plumlee is just such a tremendous drag offensively that he has to be the pick.

Arguably the least effective low-block center in the league, Plumlee ranked in the 6th percentile on points per post-up last season. Charlotte correctly almost never let him try to score in those situations, and it generally avoided giving him the ball at all. Relatively speaking, Plumlee's 69th percentile ranking as a roll man stands out as a positive. But the Hornets only used him that way 1.2 times per game. Overall, Charlotte's offensive efficiency fell by 7.3 points per 100 possessions with Plumlee on the floor—a shocking figure for a starter.

To his credit, Plumlee is an excellent passer for a big man, and he's managed to retain his bounce as he's moved deeper into his 30s. Those positives don't offset any of the numbers above, and the 39.2 percent he shot from the foul line in 2021-22 should probably end this conversation entirely. Plumlee simply can't be on the court down the stretch of meaningful games because he's such an obvious target for intentional fouls.

Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams

Starting Five: Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic

The reports on Ball's progression in his return from injury are troubling, doubly so because he also suffered a setback in April. Ball had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee in January, but top Bulls executive Arturas Karnisovas didn't even sound sure the starting point guard would be ready for training camp in September.

"He's progressing," Karnisovas said on NBA TV. "That's as much as I can say. He's getting better, probably not at the speed we would like, but he's getting better. Hopefully, he's going to be ready for training camp. That's just our hopes."

We've dinged players due to uncertain health status already, and Ball might deserve that same treatment. Fortunately for him, Chicago has a much less experienced and similarly injury-plagued option to target here.

Williams played only 17 games because of a wrist injury last year, and though the 20-year-old still has immense potential, he's easily the wild card in this bunch. And that comes with as much risk as reward.

Even in a limited sample, Williams' offense appears way behind his potentially stellar defense. A lover of one-dribble mid-range pull-ups (we can't blame DeRozan's influence for this; Williams' shot selection stunk before the league's mid-range maestro arrived), Williams isn't yet capable of generating good shots on his own. Any time the forward tries to create his own looks, it's a victory for the defense. Though his career mark of 41.3 percent from deep is encouraging, he's amassed that figure on a diet of open looks, and we can't trust an accuracy rate based on 167 total attempts.

If there's anyone in the Bulls' starting five opponents will ignore or goad into shooting, it's Williams.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Caris LeVert

Starting Five: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen

Garland and Allen are All-Stars, Mobley is going to win Defensive Player of the Year in short order and Markkanen brings size and stretch to a lineup that needs loads of the latter.

That leaves LeVert, a secondary playmaker who, in theory, should be exactly what the Cavs need to take pressure off Garland. Unfortunately, LeVert remains mostly an empty-calories contributor on offense. He ranks in the 33rd percentile in points per play as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, and he shot 31.3 percent from deep with the Cavs last year. He's been slightly better than that for his career (33.3 percent), but nobody takes him seriously as an off-ball threat.

With a full camp to get acclimated to Cleveland's system, LeVert should improve offensively. In fairness to him, despite his clunky fit, his 2021-22 minutes still coincided with a strong 5.1-point boost to the Cavs' offensive efficiency. Sadly, that wasn't enough to offset a massively negative defensive impact. No Cleveland player who logged as many minutes as LeVert was a bigger drag on the team's defensive performance. This is partly why the Cavs should still be hoping Isaac Okoro gets his shot straightened out and usurps LeVert's position in the starting lineup. He'd give the Cavaliers a third elite defensive weapon alongside Mobley and Allen.

Dallas Mavericks: JaVale McGee

Starting Five: Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Christian Wood and JaVale McGee

One of the easiest ways to identify a suspect starter is to ask if he'll be on the floor at the end of the game. Chances are, the Dallas Mavericks' 34-year-old non-switch, non-stretch conventional center will be watching close-and-late situations from the pine. Part of that owes to Maxi Kleber's playoff-tested switchability, but much of it is due to the clear limitations McGee's game presents against top opponents.

McGee hasn't been a regular starter often over the last decade, but he did have that distinction with the 2018-19 and 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers. In the first of those two years, he played 73 games but only saw action in 55 fourth quarters. In the second, McGee started all 68 games he played but was only on the floor in the final stanza 23 times.

The only other potential start-but-rarely-close piece of the above quintet is Wood, who could lose time if the Mavs downsize and bring Reggie Bullock in to give themselves a second quality wing defender next to Finney-Smith. Wood, though, is a terrific offensive option who can pull defenders out of the lane with his long-range shooting and blow by most slow-footed bigs that close on him too aggressively. His ability to keep the lane clear for Doncic makes him much more likely to stay on the court late than McGee, whose only real utility is as a roll man and offensive rebounder.

Denver Nuggets: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Starting Five: Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic

Before we go any further, how much fun is this starting lineup?!

If Murray and Porter Jr. are fully recovered after missing all but nine games of the 2021-22 season (all logged by MPJ), it'll be hard to pick any other team's offense ahead of the Denver Nuggets'. Jokic carried a starting group that included Monte Morris, Will Barton and Jeff Green to a plus-10.0 net rating last season, scoring a robust 122.9 points per 100 possessions. Just try to imagine what he'll do with three ace shooters in Murray, KCP and MPJ in the fold.

Health questions abound for Murray and Porter. But even at less than 100 percent, both figure to score in bunches. Nothing helps knock the rust off like a never-ending parade of perfect setups from the best passing big man in NBA history. Gordon, much to his delight, can scale back his offensive game and focus on defending, rebounding and keeping others involved. He was overstretched last year and did what he could to compensate for Denver's key absences, but Gordon can comfortably play to his strengths going forward. He's no All-Star even in that scenario, but he's a well above-average starter who fits this team perfectly.

Having lauded everyone but KCP so far, you can probably tell where this is going.

Caldwell-Pope is a stellar on-ball defender against both backcourt spots and has shot at least 38.5 percent from three in each of the last three years. As much as anyone, he'll benefit from Jokic's pinpoint finds. KCP can get a little ahead of himself when trying to create his own offense, and he's entering his age-30 season, so some athletic decline could be ahead. Those are nits barely worth picking under normal circumstances, but a lineup this good means we have to be extra critical.

Detroit Pistons: Marvin Bagley III

Starting Lineup: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Saddiq Bey, Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Stewart

Rookies are rarely positively impactful pieces of a team, let alone a starting lineup. So Ivey could have been the pick over Bagley. Then again, the first-year guard could struggle through some intense growing pains and still offer more than Bagley, whose three-year, $37.5 million contract stands out as one of the least explicable of the offseason.

In 488 possessions with Bagley on the floor last year, the Pistons posted a ghastly minus-8.8 net rating. He's been better than that in the past, but the fact remains that the 4-5 tweener has produced negative on-off splits in three of his four seasons and hurt his team's defense in every year of his career.

Bagley doesn't defend on the perimeter and his block rates have trended down in every year of his career, hitting their nadir with an 8th percentile ranking among bigs with the Pistons last season. Offensively, he's similarly positionless (in a bad way). A suspect perimeter shooter who can't punish mismatches in the post, Bagley is also unhelpful as a passer. He has never finished a season with more assists than turnovers, which makes "tunnel vision" too forgiving a term to describe his passing. Keyhole vision feels closer to the truth.

Golden State Warriors: Kevon Looney

Starting Five: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney

This is a tough break for Looney, whose defense and rebounding legitimately swung series during the Golden State Warriors' title run. Though he was never a serious threat to win the Western Conference or Finals MVP awards, he deserved more than courtesy consideration. The Warriors wouldn't have won their latest ring without him, and they might not have even gotten past the Memphis Grizzlies.

Good luck making the case that Looney is more accomplished than anyone else in this group. Curry is a two-time MVP, Green is arguably the best defender of his generation, Thompson has two All-NBA nods and Wiggins is an All-Star starter whose contributions to the Warriors' championship run were even more substantial than Looney's.

Golden State's center is only a weak link in relative terms. He's become an excellent rebounder who can defend in space and understands the nuances of operating in a complicated offensive system. Landing here isn't Looney's fault. He just keeps too much high-quality company.

Houston Rockets: Kevin Porter Jr.

Starting Five: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Eric Gordon, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun

Particularly for a young team, consistency from the point guard position matters. So while Porter deserves credit for rounding into form as a three-point shooter (37.5 percent last season), every other aspect of his game is too unpredictable.

There are many ways to express that, but it's especially persuasive to note that KPJ shot over 50.0 percent in nine games and under 30.0 percent in a dozen this past season. Everyone is subject to some level of inconsistency, but Porter's wide spectrum in terms of production also extends to his focus and engagement. Add to those ongoing bouts of immaturity, and although the young guard shows flashes on a nightly basis, he still does more harm than good overall.

Sengun's shaky defense made him a consideration, but the passing he brings from the frontcourt overshadows his issues on the other end. As a rookie, the big man's assist rate ranked in the 93rd percentile at his position.

Lastly, yes, we are betting on Smith immediately playing solid defense while stretching the floor from the forward spot.

Indiana Pacers: Jalen Smith

Starting Five: Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Chris Duarte, Jalen Smith and Myles Turner

The Phoenix Suns gave up way too early on Smith, and the No. 10 pick in the 2020 draft performed well for the Indiana Pacers after coming aboard via trade last season. His averages of 13.4 points and 7.6 rebounds over 22 games were good enough to earn a three-year, $15.1 million deal—not bad for a guy who got his third-year option declined by the team that drafted him.

Unfortunately for Smith, there's just nobody else to nominate.

Haliburton is a budding star, Hield has a superpower as a high-volume three-point shooter, Duarte arrived as advertised (which is to say he was ready to play immediately) and Turner, for all the incessant trade rumors, is one of precious few floor-stretching bigs who can block shots.

Smith has only been productive for 22 games, all of which came down the stretch for a non-playoff team, and we shouldn't discount the possibility that Phoenix had legitimate reasons to cut ties with him so quickly. We like Smith's potential, but he was on the verge of seeing his NBA career take a scary turn toward irrelevance less than a year ago. Nobody else in this lineup has to prove more than he does.

Los Angeles Clippers: John Wall

Starting Five: John Wall, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum and Ivica Zubac

Zubac falls into the same "won't be out there when it matters" category that earned JaVale McGee a weak-link designation, and the Los Angeles Clippers have 38 (rough count) other combo forwards who can do virtually the same things Batum can.

Those two have actually played meaningful NBA basketball more recently than December 2018, which gives them a considerable leg up on Wall. And please, don't try to make the case that 40 games for a go-nowhere Rockets team in 2020-21 count as "meaningful basketball."

Even after so much time on the shelf, Wall has a decent shot to look like 80 percent of his peak All-Star self. The Clippers would surely take that. The downside, though, is considerable. A player who never developed a reliable three-point shot and depended largely on speed, Wall isn't likely to age well. He'll still see all the angles and know where to put the ball, but he's going to have a hard time getting to the same spots he used to. Even if he hadn't missed so much time, it'd be a shock if Wall had anything like his old burst in his upcoming age-32 season.

Nobody should fault the Clips for taking a low-cost shot on a former star, but if he doesn't have his jets, it'll be difficult to justify playing him in big moments. A non-threat off the ball, Wall may need to be the primary initiator, and that'll take touches away from Leonard and George, both of whom should occupy higher-usage roles.

Los Angeles Lakers: Thomas Bryant

Starting Five: Russell Westbrook, Lonnie Walker IV, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Thomas Bryant

You won't find many people who, from the outset, were more pessimistic about the whole "Russell Westbrook in Los Angeles" thing than yours truly. But even I can't quite get behind the idea that he's an objectively worse player than some of the other options joining him in the starting five.

Walker is a great open-floor athlete who's somehow managed to shoot just 41.4 percent on two-pointers in his career, and the San Antonio Spurs let him walk away for nothing. Doubt the Spurs' player evaluations at your own risk. It probably doesn't augur well for the Lakers that Walker isn't even the most notable castoff up for consideration.

That distinction goes to Bryant, a minimum signing coming off a torn ACL with a career-long history of hurting his team's point differential and, most severely, its defense. Even taking only his healthy seasons into consideration, Bryant did damage to his team. In 2018-19 and 2019-20, his minutes coincided with on-off differentials of at least 2.0 points per 100 possessions worse than the team's overall figures.

If he's healthy, Bryant will bring some stretch to the center spot. Although the volume has always been low, he's a 35.0 percent shooter on 263 career long-range attempts. That's something, at least. Unfortunately, he might have to shoot 45.0 percent to be a net-positive player.

Memphis Grizzlies: Steven Adams

Starting Five: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams

If you catch the right Memphis Grizzlies game, you'll be convinced Brooks is out to sabotage the team. Often, his stubborn aggressiveness and shot selection seem purposely designed to produce losses. Overall, though, the physical wing brings more than enough defensive heft and on-the-margins contributions to offset the occasional instances when he goes rogue.

Brooks actually tied Bane and finished just ahead of Morant for the team lead in EPM last season.

Adams gets the unfortunate selection because of his niche skills. He's a hulking, mostly immobile center whose lack of footspeed and minimal offensive repertoire can make him a liability on both ends. That's not to say he lacks value. Adams is probably the best offensive rebounder in the league, and his brutish work on the glass was a defining feature of a Memphis team that finished with the league's second-best record in 2021-22. Nobody piled up more second-chance points than the Grizzlies, and Adams was directly responsible.

Choosing Jackson because of his injury would align with some of the health-based decisions we've made before. But those came as tiebreakers or as last resorts when there wasn't an obvious option. Assuming he only misses a small portion of the season, Jackson will return as a DPOY candidate, which is about as far from a weak link as you can get. Adams, on the other hand, won't be playable against certain downsized matchups.

Miami Heat: Duncan Robinson

Starting Five: Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo

When you've got a former starter who lost his gig on the list, there's really only one way to go. That's bad news for Robinson, who saw Max Strus supplant him in the Miami Heat's first unit last season and winds up the weak link here.

It's possible Robinson won't even have a chance to fall out of the first unit again, as the above forecast could change in ways that prevent him from getting another crack at the job. Victor Oladipo could start ahead of him, as could Tyler Herro. If Miami wanted to get more of a two-way type at the 3, Caleb Martin is an option. None of those players brings the same level of shooting as Robinson, who canned 37.2 percent of his threes in a down year last season.

The Heat determined Robinson wasn't a playable starter or closer without the elite volume and accuracy he showed in 2019-20 and 2020-21. In that two-year stretch, he was the only player to bury at least 500 threes while shooting over 40.0 percent. Unless he rediscovers that form or unexpectedly becomes a quality defender, Robinson may not last long with the starters.

Milwaukee Bucks: Grayson Allen

Starting Five: Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez

Allen follows the Heat's Duncan Robinson due to the alphabetical order of our list of teams, but the two snipers are also in eerily similar situations.

The Bucks guard, like Robinson, lost his starting job to a more balanced teammate—veteran Wesley Matthews. Though Allen retained his hold on the position deeper into the season than Robinson and regained it in the playoffs because of Khris Middleton's injury, the reasoning was basically the same: Unless he was hitting threes at rates that induced panic in opponents, his defensive vulnerabilities were too significant to overcome.

Allen is a better athlete than he gets credit for, and he's certainly superior to Robinson in that regard. But at 6'4" and surrounded by four other starters who range from very good to great on D, he's never going to get rid of the target on his chest.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels

Starting Five: D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert

More than a few raised voices are currently aimed at the screen, shouting for Russell to occupy this spot. With Towns, Edwards and Gobert totally out of the question, he's the only possible consideration outside of McDaniels. Flawed though he is as a defender, and inept as he's been at getting to the rim, Russell is still a former All-Star who is about to take on a hugely important role as a facilitator in the Minnesota Timberwolves' two-big lineup.

Not quite elite as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, Russell managed to rank in the 72nd percentile in points per play in those situations, right between Fred VanVleet and Luka Doncic, and ahead of Ja Morant. Minnesota is going to subsist on a steady diet of PnR sets this season, and Russell is the best choice to set the table.

So McDaniels is the guy. He can defend on the wing and has significant potential at a critical position, but that 31.7 percent clip from deep leaves a lot to be desired. If teams send second defenders to help on Minnesota's high-volume scorers, they'll surely look to pull McDaniels' matchup into help position first. And if the ball makes it to an uncovered McDaniels, the 79 assists he accumulated against 75 turnovers last season suggest he won't be able to do much with the advantage situation.

The defense is there, but Minnesota's 21-year-old project has a long way to before he's considered helpful on offense.

New Orleans Pelicans: Jonas Valanciunas

Starting Five: CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas

The New Orleans Pelicans will put one great defender on the floor in Jones alongside three others—McCollum, Ingram and Williamson—that top out as adequate if we're being generous. All of those suspect defenders are at or above star level offensively, so there's no realistic case to choose any of them. But the offense-defense imbalance raises the main issue with the Pels.

Jones can't guard everyone, so New Orleans needs a solid last line of defense to cover for the mistakes those other three starters make. Valanciunas is in that role, and he happens to be among the league's worst at protecting the paint. Among defenders credited with covering at least 400 shots inside six feet, only Buddy Hield allowed a higher opponent field-goal percentage than Valanciunas. Yes, Buddy Hield.

The bruising big man is a dominant rebounder and can overpower just about anyone down low on offense, and he's even solidified his status as a low-volume floor-stretcher, hitting at least 35.2 percent of his deep shots in each of the last three seasons. But for a Pelicans team that needs a backline stopper, Valanciunas simply isn't it. Expect New Orleans to downsize and go all-offense when the stakes are high, sending its starting center to the bench in favor of another wing or forward.

It's a cold world if you're a center in 2022.

New York Knicks: Julius Randle

Starting Five: Jalen Brunson, Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson

This is a jarring choice in light of Randle's All-NBA nod in 2020-21, but the addition of Brunson changes the New York Knicks' makeup in ways that diminish Randle's greatest strength as a passer. With a real point guard running the show, there won't be nearly as much need for the 6'9" lefty to initiate.

If Randle isn't providing value as a facilitator, he becomes a ball-stopping non-shooter (2020-21 was clearly the outlier; Randle's jumper regressed mightily last year) who doesn't help defensively and eats up tons of possessions inefficiently. Among bigs, he's ranked in the top 10 percent in usage rate during each of the last five years—a bad stat in conjunction with his routinely below-average points-per-shot-attempt figures.

Fournier is certainly another worthy and less controversial choice, but he's still a dangerous shooter who more or less gets back on offense whatever he surrenders defensively. Because of his primary role and inefficiency, Randle is actually poised to be more damaging. That was the case last year, when Fournier was a neutral 0.0 in EPM while Randle was a minus-0.5.

Randle's 2021-22 averages of 20.1 points, 9.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists in a down year make this decision seem ridiculous on its face, but this isn't fantasy basketball. The Knicks were worse with him on the floor last season, and he has to prove that won't be the case again before he escapes this spot.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Darius Bazley

Starting Five: Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren and Darius Bazley

The Oklahoma City Thunder's other frontcourt spot next to Holmgren may be up for grabs. Whether Bazley or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl or some third party to be named later secures it, he'll still have the distinction of being OKC's most suspect starter.

Bazley could pop in his fourth season, finally turning the two or three tantalizing drives he makes per game into actual points. As an almost unfathomably poor finisher inside given his impressive athleticism, Bazley would need big efficiency gains to get up to the league average in effective field-goal percentage. He ranked in the 23rd percentile in points per shot attempt at his position last year and only converted 58 percent of his attempts at the rim, a brutal figure for a forward.

Robinson-Earl showed some stretch in 2021-22, drilling 35.2 percent of his triples while taking more than half of his shots from beyond the arc. JRE gives up even more size than Bagley up front, though, and his rebounding rates on both ends are well below average.

Assuming Holmgren's impressive shot-blocking and mobility in summer league keep him from being a target on D, that'll leave OKC's other starting big in the crosshairs. Neither Bazley nor Robinson-Earl has done much to indicate they'll hold up on D under that kind of pressure.

Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs

Starting Five: Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr.

Suggs was the fifth pick in the 2021 draft, and a pedigree like that means it's way too early to give up on him. At the same time, if he didn't come with that lottery luster, his performance last year would have marked him as someone ticketed for a short career.

Inefficient from the field (36.1 percent) and long range (21.4 percent), Suggs compounded his shooting woes with loads of mistakes as a facilitator. His 17.4 percent turnover rate ranked in the 3rd percentile among combo guards, and the Orlando Magic only produced .62 points per possession when Suggs was the pick-and-roll ball-handler, good for a 13th percentile ranking.

It wasn't all bad for Suggs, as his defensive potential shone through his trials on the other end. He has good size for his position and generates more blocks and steals than most guards. It's just that Orlando was so inept offensively with him on the court, losing 4.4 points per 100 possessions from its offensive rating, that Suggs has a long way to go before he becomes a positive overall contributor.

Quietly, this already feels like a pivotal season for the 21-year-old. He needs to show some level of offensive competency, or the Magic might already start viewing him as a backup or specialist. That's not what you want from a recent lottery pick.

Philadelphia 76ers: PJ Tucker

Starting Five: James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, PJ Tucker and Joel Embiid

When we ranked all 30 teams, the Philadelphia 76ers' starters wound up at No. 3. So as we single out Tucker here, understand the context: There are somewhere between 20 and 25 teams, some of them top-notch title threats, who'd gladly slot him into their starting power forward spot.

Age is a concern for the 37-year-old vet, even if Tucker seems like someone who could stave off decline through ornery competitiveness alone. He's already way past the point at which he should still be able to function as a stopper, and every player slips eventually.

In addition to the risk of a steep decline, Tucker is also simply more limited than everyone else in Philly's terrifying first unit. The Heat allowed him to handle the ball more last season, but that won't be the case in a relentless pick-and-roll attack coordinated by Harden and Embiid. It'll be another season spent spotting up in the corner for Tucker, which essentially confines his offensive value to his three-point percentage. On cold nights where he looks his age on D, it might be tough for the Sixers to justify giving Tucker big minutes.

Harris is worth considering, but he's a victim of his contract. He's not the star his earnings suggest, but Harris is an efficient and skilled three-level scorer who can get you an easy 20 points most nights.

Phoenix Suns: Jae Crowder

Starting Five: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton

Like the Sixers, the Phoenix Suns' top-to-bottom quality makes this a tough decision. It would have been so easy if Ayton had ended up elsewhere, ceding his spot to Bismack Biyombo or whichever other stopgap the Suns might have used as a replacement. But he's back in the fold and might even be motivated to raise his game out of anger toward the Suns for not paying him sooner...or to elevate his trade value for when he's eligible to be moved on Jan. 15.

We'll continue to follow the Philly track and nominate an aging power forward.

Crowder saw some slippage last year, as his true shooting percentage dipped to 54.1 percent, his lowest figure since 2018-19. At 32 and with Cam Johnson breathing down his neck, Crowder must either enjoy a resurgence in three-point accuracy or, more improbably, get back to near-lockdown status as a defender against both guards and forwards.

Everyone loves a hard-nosed role player, and Crowder deserves recognition for bringing toughness and attitude every night. But it's not as if Phoenix is short on grit or experience with Paul and Booker around. Crowder has to bring production that matches his intangibles. If he can't, Johnson seems a good bet to usurp him in the starting lineup.

Portland Trail Blazers: Josh Hart

Starting Five: Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic

A tenacious rebounder who shot 37.3 percent from deep after joining the Portland Trail Blazers as part of the CJ McCollum trade, Hart might seem like an odd pick here. But his short stint last year comes with asterisks, the most significant of which is the small sample size.

Hart's usage and points-per-shot-attempt figures both hit career-high levels in those 13 games with Portland, painting him as the kind of scoring threat the rest of his career suggests is an illusion. The Blazers will never have to worry about Hart's effort or willingness to attack the glass, but he's not anything close to the guy who averaged 19.9 points per game for them last year. And defensively, his teams have tended to perform worse with him on the floor. He's only produced a positive on-off swing in defensive efficiency in one full season, and that was way back in 2018-19 with the Lakers.

Zooming out, Hart is also the only Portland starter whose spot doesn't seem set in stone. Nassir Little has more size and upside, and with a strong training camp could relegate Hart to a reserve role. Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic aren't going anywhere.

Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray

Starting Five: De'Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis

Given Murray's MVP summer league performance and their relative unfamiliarity with Huerter, many Sacramento Kings fans will balk at the rookie's inclusion here.

Glossing over the fact that we should all know by now that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas almost never matters with respect to performance during the season, it's just objectively true that Huerter is a quality two-way starter in the NBA. If Murray manages to achieve that level of play in his first season, he might very well win Rookie of the Year. That's possible, but it feels unlikely.

Huerter is entering his age-24 season and has been a consistently positive on-off difference-maker for most of his career to this point. That makes sense, as the 6'7" wing brings a lot to the table without taking anything off. Underrated defensively, Huerter can shoot the lights out and is one of the better facilitators in the league at his position. Two years ago, he checked in at the 88th percentile in assist rate among wings, and he's never been lower than the 71st in his career.

Murray has immense potential, but we should wait until we see what his limited athleticism looks like against actual NBA competition. Maybe the on-the-move shooting and theoretical switchability on D will translate immediately, but it's more likely that the Iowa product will take his lumps this season.

San Antonio Spurs: Josh Primo

Starting Five: Josh Primo, Josh Richardson, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl

Talent and frame aren't concerns with Primo, but the 19-year-old is in line to make one of the toughest positional switches imaginable as he takes over the point guard spot for Dejounte Murray. That'd be an adjustment for anyone, particularly with as little talent as the Spurs project to put around Primo, but his general lack of experience means he's in for a massive challenge.

If all you knew of Primo were his highlights, you'd be convinced stardom was inevitable. But those isolated flashes of ball-handling, shot-creation and smooth athleticism came between longer stretches of mistake-ridden play and errant shooting. It's an oversimplification, but the ball simply didn't go in often enough to generate hope Primo will be an efficient scorer any time soon. He hit 37.4 percent of his shots from the field and 30.7 percent of his deep attempts.

Primo has the potential to smother guards with his size and length at 6'6", but he'll get tougher assignments on D with Murray gone.

The ceiling is high on San Antonio's best young prospect, but 2022-23 is going to be one of those character-building experiences that brings pain before the payoff.

Toronto Raptors: Gary Trent Jr.

Starting Five: Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam

It's hard not to love this lineup on paper, but it only outscored opponents by 1.8 points per 100 possessions last season, a worse differential than the Toronto Raptors produced overall. It turns out positionless basketball is a lot of fun right up until the point where you get absolutely destroyed on the glass and can't get the ball moving in the half court.

A leap from Barnes could fix that latter issue, but the rebounding may not be salvageable in this configuration. Because VanVleet is so vital to Toronto's shot creation, and because the three combo forwards are what enable the turnover-generating, switchable defense, Trent has to be the pick. That's a shocking result for an excellent three-and-D wing in a league that values those players so highly.

For this particular Raptors team, Trent is the least helpful in the key areas where they fall short. He's not a ball-mover, as evidenced by his career 1.8 assists per 36 minutes, and he's also of no help on the boards. For comparison's sake, the 6'6" Trent averages 2.9 rebounds per 36 minutes for his career. Chris Paul, who might be 5'11" on his best day, averages 4.7. Ish Smith, a journeyman point guard listed at 6'0", is at 4.5.

Trent can change games with his shooting, but he needs to do more on the margins.

Utah Jazz: Walker Kessler

Starting Five: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler

Big men are being asked to do more on defense every year. Dominating in relatively simple drop coverage isn't enough anymore; back-line defenders need to read complex actions, cover corners, trap, switch, dart up to the level of the screen and generally solve a puzzle on every possession.

Kessler may have been the Naismith Collegiate Defensive Player of the Year at Auburn, but even he's not ready for the rigors of manning the center spot at the NBA level. Oh, and just to add an extra dollop of difficulty, he's replacing three-time DPOY Rudy Gobert.

If a defensive megastar couldn't compensate for the shoddy work of his perimeter teammates, how can anyone expect a rookie to succeed in that same role? Granted, some or all of the Utah Jazz's other four starters might be on different rosters by the time games actually start. But if Utah gets back developmental prospects or picks in deals jettisoning Mitchell, Conley and Bogdanovic, it's possible Kessler will have even less supporting talent on D around him. At the very least, the Jazz's other defenders will be less experienced than the ones they're likely to trade.

Good luck, rook. You're going to need it.

Washington Wizards: Monte Morris

Starting Five: Monte Morris, Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis

This has to sting a little because Morris was a wise acquisition at a spot of critical need for the Washington Wizards. But when you're starting with one of the league's least effectively manned positions, Wizards point guard, an upgrade doesn't mean the problem is solved.

It just means it's less glaring.

Morris has been a solid backup for several years, and that's better than anyone the Wizards started at the point last season. He is, however, not the kind of defensive stopper or prime setup man Washington GM Tommy Sheppard targeted: "I think we need somebody that is a pass-first point guard," Sheppard told reporters. "Somebody that will be able to contain the dribble on the defensive end and help us keep people out of the paint."

Morris has never topped 5.6 assists per 36 minutes in his career, and he posted a minus-0.8 DEPM in 2021-22 with the Nuggets. Again, he'll be better than what the Wizards had. But that's not the same thing as saying he'll be objectively good.

Finally, first-unit duties in Washington will be a new experience for Morris. Never a regular starter until taking over for the injured Jamal Murray, Morris didn't even really have to run the show last year. Nikola Jokic is the ultimate wing man for a point guard. With the Wizards, Morris will be flying solo

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through 2021-22 season. Salary info via Spotrac.