Rookie roles are determined by NBA-ready skills, the priority of the prospect's development, team goals or roster construction.

This year, we could see the majority of first-round picks playing significant rotational minutes based on summer league performances and favorable fits. There are even a few picks from the 20s who could find themselves in starting lineups.

There are also a handful of players who'll spend more time in the G League, and chances are their teams knew that when they selected them.

1. Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic PF

Prediction: Starter

Usage type: Lead option/scorer

The key to the Orlando Magic's rebuild and path back to relevance, Paolo Banchero should be the lineup's featured scorer right off the bat.

The team only needed to see two summer league games to have confidence that he's both ready and the prospect they thought they drafted. Banchero flashed the type of self-creation, shot-making and playmaking skills that suggest he's built to operate as a lead No. 1 option.

He'll take immediate pressure off Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs, neither of whom have shot above 40 percent from the floor as pros.

Considering Jonathan Isaac hasn't played a game since 2020, Banchero will be the more relied upon, prioritized and effective forward in Orlando's rotation. The versatility between this year's No. 1 pick and Franz Wagner should quickly create matchup problems for opposing frontcourts.

2. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder PF/C

Prediction: Starter

Usage type: Play finisher, secondary featured option

Chet Holmgren will start and primarily play off Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's and Josh Giddey's creation. He'll be used as a catch-and-finish target—both at the rim and behind the arc—off rolls, dump-downs, pick-and-pops and spot-ups.

It may take a year for Holmgren's own creation to be effective while he improves his body and handles.

Still, with an expected 30-minute role for a team focused strictly on prospect development, he should have some opportunities each game to initiate fast breaks, shot-make from the post or experiment with a face-up move off the dribble. We saw flashes of it in summer league, and those were the plays that really highlight Holmgren's star potential.

In the meantime, Holmgren's immediate value to the Thunder will revolve around the enormous target he presents guards at the rim, his shooting and incredible defensive range.

3. Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets PF

Prediction: Starter

Usage type: Spot-up scoring, secondary featured option

The Houston Rockets will give Jabari Smith Jr. starter minutes and a green light to play through mistakes. He won't lead the team in shots, and Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. will do the majority of creating. But Smith figures to be next in line for scoring opportunities, with most likely to come from spotting up or being featured around the elbows.

Though he didn't shoot as well in summer league as he did at Auburn, he did an admirable job trying to find other ways to generate offense. The Rockets will presumably try to get him isolation touches near the post and short corners, where he can rise and fire or put the ball down into line drives.

Smith's reliance on tough shots and lack of explosion, plus the Rockets' suspect point guard play, should result in some offensive inefficiency for the rookie. It won't affect his production or usage, however. In a 30-minute role, he'll have enough opportunities to capitalize nightly with his special shot-making. And coach Stephen Silas will value his defensive mobility/range.

4. Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings F

Prediction: Starter

Usage type: Top off-ball scorer/No. 3 option

Summer league's MVP, Keegan Murray could challenge for Rookie of the Year with an expected full-time role and adaptable scoring skill set.

The offense will still run through De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento, but that won't stop Murray from producing. Between his motor and body control in transition, instincts and timing cutting, post skill and convincing shooting versatility/improvement (21-of-51 3PT in summer league), he's built for off-ball scoring. To put up points, Murray won't need featured isolation touches or creation to translate.

He's best suited to play the 4, though the Kings had no problem using Sabonis at center last year. The defensive activity and IQ Murray showed in summer league should only raise the team's confidence in his potential to fit with the two-time All-Star.

5. Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons SG

Prediction: Starter

Usage type: Secondary scorer/playmaker

The Detroit Pistons offense will run through Cade Cunningham's creation. And Jaden Ivey will play off that, getting secondary touches to slash as well as explode off ball screens and catch-and-shoot.

He won't be the lead decision-maker, but Ivey should still have plenty of opportunities to make plays with the ball, whether it's transition, in pick-and-roll sets or actions cutting from the wings.

A lineup with Cunningham, Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart does lack speed and athleticism. So Ivey's should be valued with the starters, given the rim pressure he'll immediately provide.

6. Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers SG/SF

Prediction: Starter

Usage type: Spot-up scorer

Bennedict Mathurin's chances of starting may come down to whether the Indiana Pacers make Buddy Hield available to teams. The former Sacramento King played some of the best ball of his career in 26 games with Indiana, making him appealing as both a keeper or trade bait for a title contender.

Mathurin's performance in summer league could also increase the Pacers' willingness to move Hield. The No. 6 pick averaged 19.3 points in just 22.4 minutes (before getting hurt) and looked ready for NBA minutes with his combination of shot-making and athleticism.

As it stands, the Pacers have one of the least athletic lineups between Hield, Tyrese Haliburton, Chris Duarte, Jalen Smith and Myles Turner. Indiana may be motivated to change that by injecting Mathurin's positional power and explosion between the guards and bigs.

He isn't the most advanced creator, but Mathurin's skill set is still built to immediately score off transition, catch-and-shoots, quick pull-ups, line drives, cuts and offensive rebounds.

7. Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers SG

Prediction: Bench

Usage: Bench scorer

An early summer league injury won't help Shaedon Sharpe earn minutes, considering he only practiced with Kentucky and hasn't played a game in over a year. He figures to begin the season behind Keon Johnson, who averaged 14.2 points in Las Vegas.

But the Blazers clearly saw too much long-term upside to worry about how ready he'd be.

Sharpe should still draw rookie minutes for his shot-making, which is more dangerous than what Portland's bench guards (Johnson, Gary Payton II) offer. Considering how early the Blazers took him, there may be motivation to get him on the floor and familiar with NBA defenses.

8. Dyson Daniels, New Orleans Pelicans PG/SG

Prediction: Bench

Usage type: Swiss Army knife/two-way playmaker

Zion Williamson's return, Herb Jones' defense and Trey Murphy III's shooting will make it tough for 19-year-old Dyson Daniels to earn starts. Coach Willie Green still figures to value the rookie's two-way versatility and intangibles as the glue between the team's star creators and scorers.

Daniels' size, playmaking and ability to guard multiple positions should allow him to fit in easily with the first or second unit. He won't offer much scoring firepower early, but his passing, defensive instincts and IQ/energy plays should immediately carry over in a low-usage role.

It wouldn't be surprising if he eventually did get some starts, especially if New Orleans opts to go small with Williamson at the 5 and Jones and Brandon Ingram at the forward spots. Daniels' experience facilitating, plus his impressive tools for defending guards could fit well alongside CJ McCollum.

9. Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs PF

Prediction: Bench

Usage type: Off-ball finisher/defensive specialist

The San Antonio Spurs will presumably take it slower with Jeremy Sochan after he missed all of summer league. But there are too many available minutes in this rebuilding team's frontcourt. Behind Keldon Johnson, Sochan should have a chance to play through mistakes and add value with his signature defensive versatility and awareness.

It may be a struggle for the rookie offensively until he's added more shooting touch. Early on, his role will call for mostly off-ball finishing, ball-moving and capitalizing as a driver in space.

His early impact will show on switches, containing dribble penetration, rotations and energy plays. Depending on what type of lineup coach Gregg Popovich wants to use, he could try a defensive-minded one with Jakob Poeltl, Sochan at the 4 and Johnson and Devin Vassell on the wings.

10. Johnny Davis, Washington Wizards SG

Prediction: Bench

Usage type: Bench scorer/energizer

As the No. 10 pick, Johnny Davis might not spend too much time with the Capital City Go-Go, but he's also unlikely to play big minutes with the Washington Wizards.

Motivated to win now after acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, Monte Morris, Will Barton and Delon Wright over the past year, Washington won't have many minutes to experiment with a rookie who'll need time adjusting to a much smaller, off-ball role. Davis shot 29.6 percent in summer league and doesn't appear ready to consistently threaten defenses from behind the arc.

He'll presumably start the season behind Corey Kispert, Barton and Deni Avdija on Washington's depth chart. Avdija is entering a critical third season, however, and no improvement could sway coach Wes Unseld Jr. to look to Davis. Even if the rookie struggles to shoot, he could make a case for minutes with his rim pressure and defensive competitiveness.

Late Lottery

No. 11. Ousmane Dieng, Oklahoma City Thunder SG/SF

Prediction: Reserve scorer

Most of Dieng's NBA minutes might not come until the second half of the season when the team is focused on player development over winning games. The Thunder will eventually want to see how close or far away the No. 11 pick is, particularly after some productive stretches in summer league and the confidence to average 8.8 points in 22.7 minutes. Dieng won't shoot a high percentage, but the flash plays of scoring versatility should still occur and continue hinting at the longer-term offensive upside.

12. Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder PG/SG

Prediction: Bench connector

Highly efficient at Santa Clara, the NBA combine and summer league, Williams already has a strong case to start the year in Oklahoma City's rotation. Even with the Thunder's backcourt set and Tre Mann coming off the bench, Williams, who's 6'6" with a 7'2" wingspan, should have enough size, defensive length and skill versatility to play the 3. He'll work on and off the ball, running pick-and-rolls and spot-up shooting.

13. Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons C

Prediction: Reserve finisher/rim protector

Third-year pro Isaiah Stewart will likely start over Duren, though the Pistons are presumably banking on the No. 13 pick eventually rising to the top of the center depth chart. Even with scoring limitations, Duren should beat out Nerlens Noel for minutes. The teenager offers more explosive leaping and power for picking up easy baskets and blocking shots, as well as budding passing skills.

14. Ochai Agbaji, Cleveland Cavaliers SG/SF

Prediction: Reserve shooter

The Cavaliers took 22-year-old in the lottery, presumably because of the shooting he can provide right away. Collin Sexton returning would create a crowd with Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro and Lauri Markkanen, so the rookie's role and production will fluctuate. But Agbaji should be ready to make shots when called on based on last year's 103 made threes and his quick release off the catch.

Nos. 15-20

15. Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets C

Prediction: Reserve rim protector/finisher

It's more reasonable to predict Williams starting on opening night next season with Mason Plumlee entering the final year of his contract. Coach Steve Clifford figures to favor the veteran early, though it does seem possible that Williams impacts his way to the starting 5 slot by March. With an absurd 9'9" standing reach, he should offer the most defensive upside of any center on Charlotte's roster, even in 2022-23.

16. AJ Griffin, Atlanta Hawks F

Prediction: Reserve shooter

Missing summer league won't help Griffin see the floor early. His best chance at minutes will be at the 4 behind John Collins, who's also been rumored in trades all summer. Atlanta moving Collins would really open the door for Griffin to provide shooting off the bench, though the addition of Justin Holiday, a potentially healthy Jalen Johnson and breakout candidate Onyeka Okongwu could also be higher in the pecking order. A quiet rookie season seems most realistic for Griffin, who's still 18 years old.

17. Tari Eason, Houston Rockets F

Prediction: Starter, versatility specialist

Eason looked too good in summer league to bring off the bench for a team with a focus on prospect development. In a more positionless NBA, he flashed enough transition ball-handling, face-up offense, shooting potential and versatility to play the 3 next to Jabari Smith Jr.

18. Dalen Terry, Chicago Bulls G/F

Prediction: G League

Though valued for transition offense, passing and defense, Terry is better suited for the 2 or 3 than as a primary creator. That hurts his chances of starting or playing even if Lonzo Ball can't begin the season. Ayo Dosunmu and Alex Caruso also provide similar role-playing versatility and defense. It will take an injury for Terry to have a role, so in the meantime, it makes sense for Chicago to give him G League reps to work on his on-ball creation and shooting.

19. Jake LaRavia, Memphis Grizzlies PF

Prediction: Bench

The Grizzlies figure to keep LaRavia on the active roster now that Jaren Jackson Jr. is expected to miss time after foot surgery. It's tough to imagine him getting minutes when Memphis is at full strength at forward with Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Danny Green and Ziaire Williams. But injuries could make LaRavia a backup option, and his versatility to shoot, pass and use defensive IQ could allow him to play both forward spots.

20. Malaki Branham, San Antonio Spurs SG

Prediction: Starter

With the Spurs in full tank/rebuilding mode following the Dejounte Murray trade, Branham should be starting at some point. He outplayed Josh Primo in summer league with his shot-making versatility and three-point shooting. Despite going 11 picks after San Antonio lottery pick Jeremy Sochan, the skilled, three-level scoring Branham could be the team's top rookie and prospect.

Nos. 21-30

21. Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets SG/SF

Prediction: G League

Braun will spend time in the G League with the Nuggets getting back Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and adding Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The No. 21 pick offers appealing versatility in the form of playmaking and defense. but he shot just 3-of-24 from three in summer league and isn't ready to be used as a creator.

22. Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz C

Prediction: Starting rim protector

Having moved to Utah in the Rudy Gobert trade, Kessler suddenly has a good chance to start for a Jazz team that appears in the process of rebuilding. He was the draft's top shot-blocker, and rim protection will be his calling card. But this season will also present an excellent opportunity for the 7-footer to continue working on his three-ball, which he tried to do last year with 50 attempts for Auburn.

23. David Roddy, Memphis Grizzlies SF/PF

Prediction: G League

Memphis is loaded with older forwards, and at this stage, Roddy doesn't offer a bankable skill or defense. He's a versatile scorer and plus passer, but he'll spend time in the G League working on his shooting range and improving his 255-pound frame.

24. MarJon Beauchamp, Milwaukee Bucks SF

Prediction: Three-and-D reserve

Depending on when Joe Ingles can return from ACL surgery and how effective he'll be once back, Beauchamp could be looking at minutes right away. He was one of the rookie standouts in summer league, and if the shooting in Las Vegas was a real sign of improvement (11-of-24 3PT), the Bucks could see a useful three-and-D wing and off-ball scorer to bring off the bench.

25. Blake Wesley, San Antonio Spurs PG/SG

Prediction: Reserve combo

Wesley flashed some exciting long-term potential in summer league by averaging 18.6 points and 4.0 assists off athletic plays, shot-making versatility and playmaking flashes. His 30.0 field-goal percentage due to inconsistent shooting and poor finishing feel told Spurs coaches to lower expectations for his rookie season. He'll still earn minutes during a year when the Spurs will be thinking more about the 2023 draft than the standings.

26. Wendell Moore Jr., Minnesota Timberwolves SG/SF

Prediction: G League

The addition of Rudy Gobert means the Timberwolves are serious about advancing deep into the playoffs. Moore won't play ahead of Jaylen Nowell, Kyle Anderson, Taurean Prince or Jaden McDaniels, so it's likely the No. 26 pick winds up in the G League. He's still just 20 years old and could eventually offer useful versatility as a shoot-pass wing between the team's three stars.

27. Nikola Jovic, Miami Heat SF

Prediction: G League

The only way Jovic earns NBA minutes is by proving he can hold his own against power forwards. There isn't any room on the wing, but the Heat lack depth at the 4, and Jovic is 6'10" with dangerous shooting ability and advantageous positional playmaking skills. Proving he's not a major defensive liability will be the key.

28. Patrick Baldwin Jr., Golden State Warriors SF/PF

Prediction: G League

The additions of Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green—plus a potential sophomore breakout from Jonathan Kuminga—all but eliminate Baldwin's chances of cracking Golden State's rotation. The Warriors could eventually value his shooting in the frontcourt, but after he played just 11 games and shot 34.4 percent, he'll likely spend more time in the G League rebuilding his confidence.

29. TyTy Washington Jr., Houston Rockets PG

Prediction: Backup point guard

Washington may have a more natural playmaking feel than anyone in Houston's rotation. A lack of burst and explosion will limit his scoring early, but Washington should get rookie minutes for his ability to facilitate and create for teammates off ball screens.

30. Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets SF

Prediction: G League

Sending Watson to the G League seems like an easy call after he averaged just 3.3 points and 12.7 minutes at UCLA. His offense must get closer to catching his defense for him to be playable at the NBA level. He'll benefit from more on-ball reps and a green light to improve his shooting confidence.