The 2022 MLB trade deadline is still more than a month away, but the rumor mill is already starting to heat up as the line between contenders and non-contenders becomes more clear.
Upcoming free agents on teams that have fallen out of the postseason hunt like Willson Contreras (Cubs), Andrew Benintendi (Royals), Josh Bell (Nationals), Jose Quintana (Pirates) and Zach Davies (Diamondbacks) are the most obvious trade chips, but there will undoubtedly be some controllable MLB talent moved as well.
On the contender side of things, prospects who are blocked at the MLB level or who are still multiple years away from reaching the majors when a team's window is open now are the most likely trade pieces, though it's much more difficult to predict exactly who will be moved.
Ahead we've highlighted each MLB team's most likely player to be dealt ahead of the 2022 trade deadline, though there is still time for teams to flip between buyers and sellers in the coming weeks.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Jorge Lopez
Slugger Trey Mancini is having a strong season in a contract year, but he means enough to the organization that it's reasonable to expect him to stay put this summer. A year after struggling to a 6.07 ERA in 121.2 innings working primarily as a starter, Lopez has been lights-out in the bullpen, logging a 0.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 11 saves in 13 chances.
Boston Red Sox: SS Matthew Lugo
With Trevor Story signed long-term, Xander Bogaerts still potentially in the mix going forward, Jeter Downs joining the MLB roster and top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke rising the ranks, Lugo could be trade bait in the midst of a breakout year. The 21-year-old is hitting .289/.341/.539 with 33 extra-base hits in 56 games at High-A.
New York Yankees: RHP Juan Carela
Breakout prospects are often at the top of other teams' target lists when trade season rolls around. Carela fits the bill in the Yankees system this year with a 2.31 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 68 strikeouts in 50.2 innings at Single-A. The 20-year-old began the year ranked outside the top 30 prospects in the organization, according to Baseball America.
Tampa Bay Rays: 2B Xavier Edwards
With three home runs in 1,173 plate appearances in the minors, Edwards is never going to be a power threat. However, his contact skills and speed give him leadoff-hitter potential. The 22-year-old is batting .324/.375/.487 in 80 plate appearances at Triple-A, and a change of scenery might be necessary for him to get a shot at an everyday role.
Toronto Blue Jays: SS/3B Jordan Groshans
With Bo Bichette entrenched at shortstop and Orelvis Martinez ticketed for third base, Groshans could be the centerpiece in a blockbuster deal. The 22-year-old has average-or-better tools across the board, and there's untapped power potential in his 6'3", 200-pound frame. Injuries have slowed his development, but he still has impact upside.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox: RHP Johnny Cueto
The White Sox entered play on Wednesday at .500 and third in the AL Central standings. We're not going to see a fire sale, but it's also fair to assume they're not going to be aggressive buyers if they don't make a push soon. With a 2.95 ERA in 42.2 innings and a wealth of postseason experience, Cueto should be an easy flip if they want to cut their losses.
Cleveland Guardians: OF Nolan Jones
Sidelined with ankle and back issues to start the year, Jones is hitting .296/.418/.386 in 55 plate appearances since getting back on the field. With the emergence of Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez in the majors and George Valera rising the ranks in the minors, Jones could be viewed as expendable, and his MLB readiness should hold plenty of appeal.
Detroit Tigers: RHP Michael Fulmer
It's been a long, winding road for Fulmer since he won AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2016, but he's come out the other side of some injury issues as a solid late-inning reliever. The 29-year-old has a 2.16 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 10 holds in 25 appearances, and he's an obvious trade candidate with free agency looming this offseason.
Kansas City Royals: OF Andrew Benintendi
The No. 1 overall prospect in baseball and a rising star for the Boston Red Sox once upon a time, Benintendi is now playing his way into a significant payday in a contract year. The 27-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.392 for a 115 OPS+ and he won a Gold Glove in left field last season. Don't rule out the Royals making a push to extend him.
Minnesota Twins: IF Spencer Steer
Steer is hitting .284/.367/.585 with 18 doubles, 17 home runs and 53 RBI in 58 games between Double-A and Triple-A, and he has made double-digit starts at second base, shortstop and third base. The Twins have similarly versatile players in Luis Arraez and Jose Miranda, which could make it easier to flip Steer this summer.
American League West
Houston Astros: 2B/3B Enmanuel Valdez
The Astros flipped Abraham Toro for a rental reliever last summer, and they could do the same with a similar player in Valdez this year. The 23-year-old is hitting .352/.449/.681 with 17 doubles, 17 home runs and 57 RBI in 55 games in the upper levels of the minors, but there's no clear path to playing time for him with Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman blocking his path.
Los Angeles Angels: RHP Michael Lorenzen
The Angels have to consider selling off short-term pieces if they can't claw their way back into the AL West picture. It may be difficult to flip Noah Syndergaard and his bloated $21 million salary, but they'll have no problem finding a taker for Lorenzen. The free-agent-to-be has a 4.15 ERA and 3.93 FIP in 65 innings in his first season as a full-time starter.
Oakland Athletics: RHP Frankie Montas
Is there any player more likely to be dealt before Aug. 1? After finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting a year ago, Montas survived Oakland's offseason fire sale, but with only one year of club control remaining in 2023, he is a prime candidate to be moved this summer. The 29-year-old has a 3.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 84 strikeouts in 81.2 innings.
Seattle Mariners: 2B/OF Adam Frazier
Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto often buys and sells at the deadline, so flipping Frazier before he reaches free agency is a very real possibility. The 30-year-old is hitting just .226/.292/.304 a year after starting the All-Star Game, but his track record of production and versatility still hold value. Abraham Toro could then step into the starting second base job.
Texas Rangers: OF Kole Calhoun
The Rangers seem poised to sell short-term pieces while potentially targeting controllable players who could be a factor in 2023 and beyond. Calhoun has a 95 OPS+ with eight home runs and 26 RBI, and he signed a one-year deal during the offseason that carries a reasonable $5.5 million club option and no buyout in 2023.
National League East
Atlanta Braves: LHP Tucker Davidson
The Braves have Tucker Davidson, Bryce Elder, Kyle Muller, Touki Toussaint and Huascar Ynoa all on the 40-man roster currently pitching at Triple-A Gwinnett. As MLB-ready arms with multiple years of club control, that group will be extremely appealing to non-contenders, and Davidson is the oldest of the bunch at 26 years old.
Miami Marlins: RHP Anthony Bass
In the second season of a two-year, $5 million contract, and with a $3 million club option for next year, Bass has a team-friendly deal that adds to his trade appeal. The 34-year-old has a 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11 holds in 28 appearances this year, and he also has some experience closing games with 12 saves across 2019 and 2020.
New York Mets: 3B/OF Mark Vientos
After posting a .933 OPS with 25 home runs last season, Vientos is batting .308/.385/.625 with 10 home runs in his last 26 games at Triple-A. While Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Alex Ramirez will likely be untouchable in trade talks, Vientos has enough upside to be the centerpiece in a blockbuster deal to bolster the team's title push.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Griff McGarry
A fifth-round pick in 2021, McGarry is showing swing-and-miss stuff with 58 strikeouts in 35.1 innings at High-A. The Phillies are unlikely to deal any of their elite-level prospects, as they desperately need an infusion of young, cost-controlled talent, but McGarry is a name that could stand out to opposing teams in a mid-level deal.
Washington Nationals: 1B Josh Bell
Bell is batting .294/.377/.472 with 10 doubles, 11 home runs and 44 RBI in a contract year with the last-place Nationals. The 29-year-old is a switch-hitter who can slot nicely into the middle of any contender's lineup, whether it's as the starting first baseman or designated hitter. Veteran slugger Nelson Cruz is also a prime candidate to be dealt before the deadline.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs: C Willson Contreras
Simply put, Contreras is the best catcher in baseball right now, and he'll be one of the best offensive players on the trade block period this summer. The 30-year-old is hitting .275/.390/.517 with 12 home runs and 2.9 WAR in 59 games, and his 153 OPS+ ranks 13th among qualified hitters. He's just a rental, but he should still fetch a big return.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo
Castillo should bring back a return similar to what the Minnesota Twins received for Jose Berrios last summer, as he also comes with one remaining year of control and has a solid track record of front-line production. Tyler Mahle is also a candidate to be moved, but holding on to one of those guys makes sense to ease the load on their young starters.
Milwaukee Brewers: OF Hedbert Perez
With Joey Wiemer and Jackson Chourio rapidly rising up leaguewide prospect lists and first-round picks Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick also in the mix, the Brewers have a wealth of outfield talent. That makes it easier to move Perez, who has a very high ceiling but has not been quite as productive on the field just yet.
Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP Jose Quintana
The Pirates' best trade chips are All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds and controllable closer David Bednar, but their most likely trade chip is undoubtedly Quintana. Signed to a one-year, $2 million deal during the offseason, he's provided a 3.66 ERA in 64 innings over 13 starts, and his 3.91 FIP is a solid indication of sustainable production.
St. Louis Cardinals: OF Moises Gomez
The Cardinals' long-term outfield is set with Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson penciled into starting jobs, and that gives them a golden opportunity to sell high on Gomez to improve the MLB roster. Signed to a minor league deal after he was cut loose by the Rays, the 23-year-old is hitting .325/.397/.718 with 22 home runs in 56 games at Double-A.
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Zach Davies
Will the D-backs trade their longest-tenured player, David Peralta, in the final year of his contract? A minimal return is likely, so there's a good chance he'll stay put, making Davies their most obvious trade candidate. After struggling to a 5.78 ERA in 148 innings last year, he signed a one-year, $1.75 million deal and has pitched to a 3.96 ERA through 14 starts.
Colorado Rockies: RHP Chad Kuhl
The Rockies signed Kuhl to a one-year, $3 million deal after he was non-tendered by the Pittsburgh Pirates, and that has been one of the steals of the offseason. The 29-year-old has a 3.69 ERA and 127 ERA+ in 63.1 innings, and scrapping his four-seam fastball in favor of a sinker-slider heavy approach has allowed him to thrive at Coors Field.
Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Jacob Amaya
The Dodgers have clung tightly to their top-tier prospects in recent years, and that's unlikely to change this summer. Amaya is enjoying a breakout season offensively in the upper levels of the minors, hitting .269/.373/.505 with 10 doubles, 11 home runs and 38 RBI in 56 games, and he profiles as an offensive-minded utility player who can help in short order.
San Diego Padres: OF Esteury Ruiz
Ruiz has been one of the breakout prospects of 2022, hitting .354/.481/.625 with 34 extra-base hits and 48 steals in 61 games. The 23-year-old hit .249 with a .739 OPS last season and was given a 40-grade hit tool by MLB.com, so the strides he has made this year have been surprising, to say the least. Will the Padres sell high to address an immediate need?
San Francisco Giants: OF Jairo Pomares
Pomares hit .334/.378/.629 with 20 home runs in 77 games last year, but his 87-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio spoke to the adjustments he still needed to make to his approach. The 21-year-old has seen a slight downturn in production this year, but he still has an .827 OPS with 11 home runs in 50 games, and he could be flipped for more immediate offensive help.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday's games.
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