Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Reevaluating All 30 MLB Teams Based on Preseason Projections

Kerry Miller

Whether you're a fan of the Mets or the Yankees, if you live in New York, it has been a fun, successful 2022 MLB season.

If you live in Chicago, well, at least you can still go on with life believing your pizza is better than New York's.

We're now a little over two months into this six-month campaign, and it's time for some updated progress reports. Grades for all 30 teams have been awarded based on how current winning percentages (through the start of play June 12) compare to the implied winning percentages from their preseason win-total odds.

Generally speaking, teams on pace for at least 10 wins more than their preseason win total received an A. Being right on pace earns a C. And at least 10 wins worse gets an F. That singular number provided the initial bell curve. However, teams could be shifted up to two spots in either direction based on how they've performed in recent weeks.

For example, a team with an initial grade of B- could get a B+ if it has been hot or a C if it has been mired in a slump.

Teams are broken up by division and presented in alphabetical order.

American League East

Mark Blinch/Getty Images

Baltimore Orioles: B-
Preseason Line: 62.5; Current Projection: 67.6

The O's are going nowhere fast, but they have at least been better than expected. And let's keep in mind that is in spite of losing their ace, John Means, to Tommy John surgery just one week into the regular season. Had we known in the preseason that he'd only make two starts, Baltimore's win total likely would have been more like 57.5. But outfielder Austin Hays has been great, Trey Mancini is batting around .300 and could be a major trade chip next month and Baltimore has quietly cobbled together one of the best bullpens in the majors.

Boston Red Sox: C
Preseason Line: 85.5; Current Projection: 83.8

The funny thing about Boston being right on pace for its preseason win total is that no team has had a "Tale of Two Seasons" quite like the Red Sox. On May 11, Boston was 11-20, good for the fourth-worst winning percentage overall. Since then, the Red Sox have been hitting the cover off the ball to the tune of a 20-9 record, which was tied with the Yankees for the best in the past month prior to Saturday. Right now, it seems like they'll eclipse 85.5 wins with room to spare en route to the postseason. But we'll see what the third month has in store.

New York Yankees: A+
Preseason Line: 91.5; Current Projection: 118.1

The Yankees have been outrageously good and are on pace to eclipse their preseason win total somewhere in the vicinity of August 27. And the scary part is this best team in the majors has clear areas of weakness to address ahead of the Aug. 2 trade deadline, as outfielder Aaron Hicks and Joey Gallo and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa have provided little to no value in the everyday lineup. If they can improve in even one of those three spots while also getting both Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton back into what is already an excellent bullpen, they just might flirt with setting an MLB record for single-season wins (116).

Tampa Bay Rays: A-
Preseason Line: 89.5; Current Projection: 93.3

As always seems to be the case, the Rays are a good deal better than Las Vegas expected, in large part because of great pitching that came out of nowhere. No one was talking about Jeffrey Springs, Jalen Beeks, Colin Poche, Jason Adam or J.P. Feyereisen before the season began, as not a single one of those five pitchers had amassed so much as 1.0 Baseball Reference WAR in his career. Lo and behold, all five have given the Rays at least 18 innings with a combined ERA of 1.12. As a result, Tampa Bay is exceeding expectations and should get even better if and when Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino, Andrew Kittredge and Feyereisen all make their way back from the injured list.

Toronto Blue Jays: B
Preseason Line: 92.5; Current Projection: 94.9

Three weeks ago, Toronto's grade likely would have been a D. The Blue Jays were barely .500 with a dreadfully underperforming offense. But from May 24 through June 10, they went 12-3, averaging slightly better than 7.0 runs per game. Catcher Alejandro Kirk led the charge with an .867 slugging percentage during that time, but 11 of 12 Blue Jays with at least 10 plate appearances in those 15 games either had at least four home runs or at least a .275 batting average. If they carry that momentum through the upcoming homestand against the Orioles and Yankees, the AL East race could get a wee bit interesting.

American League Central

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Chicago White Sox: F
Preseason Line: 91.5; Current Projection: 76.8

By the end of this exercise, there will be six failing grades handed out. Five of those six F's go to teams that were expected to win fewer than 76 games and are on pace for around 55. But Chicago is hands down the biggest disappointment in 2022. Michael Kopech might be in the mix for the AL Cy Young. Tim Anderson might win the batting crown (if he gets enough plate appearances after he returns from the IL). And yet the White Sox—who were neck-and-neck with the Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees for preseason AL supremacy—have a sub-.500 record and a negative-54 run differential.

Cleveland Guardians: A-
Preseason Line: 76.5; Current Projection: 82.5

There has been a lot of chatter lately about Aaron Judge pulling away in the AL MVP race, but that just goes to show that a lot of people are still sleeping on Jose Ramirez and the Guardians. Jo-Ram has been preposterously good with 36 extra-base hits and an MLB-best 56 RBI. And he is surrounded by both batters and pitchers who are putting up solid but sustainable numbers. There may be rough times ahead, as Cleveland will play 17 consecutive games against the Dodgers, Twins, Red Sox and Yankees from June 17 to July 3. But the Guardians have been better than expected and should remain a factor in both the AL Central and wild-card races.

Detroit Tigers: D-
Preseason Line: 78.5; Current Projection: 67.1

How are things going for Detroit? Well, there are nine Tigers making at least $5 million this season, they have produced a combined total of minus-0.1 Baseball Reference WAR and three of them are on the IL. On the plus side, young and inexpensive pitchers Tarik Skubal (age 25), Alex Faedo (26), Gregory Soto (27), Alex Lange (26) and Will Vest (27) have all been solid, so they may at least be some building blocks underneath all of this rubble. And at least Detroit isn't in last place in the division...

Kansas City Royals: F
Preseason Line: 74.5; Current Projection: 55.9

Rookies Bobby Witt Jr. and MJ Melendez are hitting the ball well. Scott Barlow has done a fine job in his second season as KC's closer—though save chances have been practically nil. Andrew Benintendi is batting .308 and should be a hot commodity ahead of the trade deadline. But silver linings have been few and far between for the 2022 Royals. The franchise record for single-season losses (106 in 2005) may be in jeopardy.

Minnesota Twins: A+
Preseason Line: 81.5; Current Projection: 93.0

After a 14-game drought in which he batted .127 with no home runs, Twins star Byron Buxton has started annihilating baseballs again with six home runs already in June. Luis Arraez is leading the majors in batting average (.367) and just mashed a grand slam on Saturday against the Rays. Carlos Correa has also rallied from a tough start, batting .380 over his last 22 games. All good things for a team that was already faring better than expected. But Minnesota desperately needs a cleaner bill of health in its pitching rotation, as five of the 10 team leaders in innings pitched are on the IL. Get Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and Co. back in short order and the Twins should remain the team to beat in the AL Central.

American League West

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Houston Astros: A
Preseason Line: 91.5; Current Projection: 98.8

It's hard to believe Houston was at one point 7-9 and alone in fourth place in the AL West standings. But the Astros have gone 29-14 since then, which would be the best record in baseball dating back to April 25 were it not for the relentless Yankees (33-10). Save for a few Jose Urquidy implosions, pretty much the entire pitching staff has been great. And with Yordan Alvarez emerging as one of the game's best current hitters, the offense is potent enough to routinely capitalize on that great pitching. The way things are trending, Houston should be the first team to clinch its division.

Los Angeles Angels: D
Preseason Line: 83.5; Current Projection: 77.0

The Angels get a great big F- for their play over the past three weeks, crashing and burning from 27-17 all the way to 29-32. But as far as the full season is concerned, they have only been marginally worse than expected, still well within striking distance of 83.5 wins if they ever remember how to win a one-run game again. (Nine consecutive losses in one-run games since their last one-run win on May 8.) And despite the recent floundering, both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani remain strong candidates for AL MVP, while all five primary starting pitchers have sub-4.00 ERAs.

Oakland A's: F
Preseason Line: 68.5; Current Projection: 55.7

It's pretty wild to look back at the AL West standings on April 28. The A's were 10-9 and tied with the Astros for third place. Since then, they have fallen 16 games behind Houston with what has been by far the worst record in the majors (11-31). Little was expected from this team after it gave away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea for a combined 10 players with little to no MLB experience. And yet Oakland has somehow been substantially worse than expected.

Seattle Mariners: D
Preseason Line: 83.5; Current Projection: 74.2

I have to give the Mariners a poor grade, as they're on pace to finish nine games behind their preseason win total. But here's a semi-hot take for you: This 27-32 team could still make the playoffs. Seattle has played 64.4 percent of its games against teams that currently have winning records and had to play 35 of its first 57 games away from home. In spite of that difficult slate, the M's have a respectable run differential (negative-11) and have showcased a lot of talent, primarily in Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, J.P. Crawford and Logan Gilbert. And let's not forget: Seattle had the best winning percentage in the AL from June 13 onward last year.

Texas Rangers: C
Preseason Line: 74.5; Current Projection: 75.5

The Rangers have rallied a bit from their woeful 6-14 start to the season but merely enough to get back to preseason expectations of a 75-87 type of campaign. Most of the regulars are hitting around .230, and with the exception of Martin Perez, Texas' starting rotation has been mediocre at best. Could be better. Could be worse. But a sixth consecutive losing season seems to be headed the team's way.

National League East

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

Atlanta Braves: C+
Preseason Line: 91.5; Current Projection: 89.1

On the one hand, I hate giving a C+ to a team that has yet to lose in June, as the Braves are obviously trending in the right direction. On the other hand, Atlanta entered June on pace for 74.5 wins and has spent the past 11 days fattening up on the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, A's and Pittsburgh Pirates. But the reigning champs are in good shape. Everyone except for Adam Duvall is hitting pretty well, and the starting rotation is looking better now that Spencer Strider is in that mix. Charlie Morton is still a $20 million albatross with a 5.67 ERA and one quality start on the season, but Atlanta will really be in business if he ever gets back to pitching like he did from 2018 to '21.

Miami Marlins: C-
Preseason Line: 77.5; Current Projection: 76.8

After going 12-8 in April and 7-19 in May, the good news in Miami is that the Marlins have gotten back to their April roots thus far in June, going 8-3 to start the month. All told, their record is still a bit behind what was expected before the year began, but Miami does have a -plus-28 run differential and should have a much better record than it does. And with the recent addition of Edward Cabrera to the starting rotation, maybe the Marlins can make their way back above .500. He's been great through his first two starts (0.75 ERA over 12 innings), looking like quite the third fiddle to Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez.

New York Mets: A+
Preseason Line: 88.5; Current Projection: 103.5

The Mets have come back to earth a wee bit as of late, but that'll happen when forced to go on a 10-game road trip against the Dodgers, Padres and Angels with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom still out of the rotation. And, like, when we say "back to earth" for the Mets, we're still talking about splitting a four-game series against the mighty Dodgers, taking one out of three against the red-hot Padres and splitting the first two games against the Angels. New York is still in great shape for what could be just the second season in franchise history with at least 101 wins. (But they probably won't reach the 108 mark from 1986.)

Philadelphia Phillies: C+
Preseason Line: 86.5; Current Projection: 82.3

As with Atlanta, it pains me to give an average grade to a team that had not yet lost in June entering play Sunday. But the Phillies needed to fire Joe Girardi and subsequently reel off eight consecutive victories just to claw their way back to .500. That means they are just now approaching what was expected of them two-plus months ago. And there's still plenty of room for improvement. Bryson Stott, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been hot in June, but J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have very much not been hitting well as of late. And each of the five starting pitchers has a FIP lower than his ERA, implying they've been somewhat unlucky across the board. Maybe that luck will improve as the Phillies attempt to chase down the Mets.

Washington Nationals: F
Preseason Line: 71.5; Current Projection: 61.1

Stephen Strasburg finally made his 2022 debut Thursday. And through the first four innings, he looked great. His velocity was nowhere near what it used to be, but his off-speed stuff was filthy, and, hey, it's been over a year since he last pitched. Maybe he'll fare better with the radar gun next time out. But at the end of that night, the Nationals had the worst record in the NL and the worst run differential in the majors. Such is life in the nation's capital these days.

National League Central

Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

Chicago Cubs: F
Preseason Line: 75.5; Current Projection: 64.3

While both New York squads get an A+ for their play this year, 2022 has been a season of failure in Chicago. The White Sox have been the more substantial disappointment, but the Cubs are flirting with the worst record in baseball. They may get there if and when they trade impending free agents Willson Contreras and David Robertson, who have been two of the only bright spots on this roster.

Cincinnati Reds: F
Preseason Line: 74.5; Current Projection: 54.9

The Reds are 17-17 over their last 34 games, which would put them on pace for 81 wins were it not for that horrific 3-22 start to the year. So, even though their current full-season pace is roughly 55 wins, they might still mess around and get to 75. Hunter Greene has been darn good over his last seven starts, and Graham Ashcraft is sitting at a 1.14 ERA four starts into his MLB career. Cincinnati gets an F, but things are looking up for the team with the worst record in the majors.

Milwaukee Brewers: C-
Preseason Line: 89.5; Current Projection: 87.6

The Brewers haven't quite hit Angels levels of falling apart at the seams, but losses in 10 of their last 11 games have sent them free-falling into second place in the NL Central. And things could stay ugly if they don't turn a corner soon because four of their next five series are against the Mets, Cardinals, Blue Jays and Rays. This pitching staff has been great for most of the season, but it has averaged 6.6 runs allowed during this rough stretch. That has not paired well with a lineup that is hitting just .231 for the year.

Pittsburgh Pirates: B-
Preseason Line: 65.5; Current Projection: 68.2

The Pirates have been held to four runs or fewer in 22 of their past 27 games and should be a good deal worse than 24-33. As of Sunday morning, they have the worst run differential (minus-89) in the majors, thanks in large part to losses by scores of 21-0, 18-4, 11-1 and 9-0 twice. But as far as winning percentage is concerned, they are marginally better than expected. Thus, they get a B-, even though under 65.5 still seems like the most likely outcome.

St. Louis Cardinals: B+
Preseason Line: 84.5; Current Projection: 91.9

Could Andre Pallante be the answer to the Cardinals' rotation woes? Their top three starters (Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson) have been stellar, each making at least 11 starts with a sub-3.00 ERA. But those fourth and fifth spots have been an adventure, which is perhaps why St. Louis has had neither a five-game winning streak nor a four-game losing streak yet this season. Pallante has a 1.04 ERA in 34.2 innings of work and has given the Cardinals back-to-back solid performances since becoming a starter. If he continues to do well, it could be what pushes St. Louis from "good enough to win the NL Central" to "good enough to win the World Series."

National League West

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Arizona Diamondbacks: B+
Preseason Line: 67.5; Current Projection: 74.4

The Diamondbacks had a winning record (23-22) a little over one-fourth of the way into the regular season, which it seems safe to say that nobody saw coming. Only the Pirates (65.5) and Orioles (62.5) had a lower win-total odds than the D-backs. So even though they have lost 10 of their last 15 games and are rapidly losing hope for what would have been an unlikely postseason berth, things are still going better than expected for Arizona. The team's batting average (.215) is dreadful. But there's a lot of power in the lineup, and the starting rotation has been solid.

Colorado Rockies: C
Preseason Line: 68.5; Current Projection: 70.1

Similar to Arizona, a hot start in Colorado has given way to what is shaping up to be a long season. The Rockies were 15-10 after 25 games, but they have sputtered to an 11-24 record since then. The batting has been fine. In fact, Colorado led the majors in batting average until a few days ago. But the pitching has been some kind of awful. Chad Kuhl has wilted with a 5.65 ERA over his last six starts, while both German Marquez and Austin Gomber have ERAs north of 6.00 for the season. With limited exceptions, the bullpen hasn't been much better. And great batting average or not, it's hard to win games when you're allowing around six runs per night.

Los Angeles Dodgers: B
Preseason Line: 98.5; Current Projection: 101.6

Not even two weeks ago, the Dodgers were 33-14, putting them on pace for 114 wins. But then they got swept. At home. By the Pirates. This came less than a month after losing two out of three in Pittsburgh. And even since that embarrassing sweep, they've gone just 4-5 against the Mets, White Sox and Giants. All of a sudden, any notion of setting some sort of regular-season history has gone out the window, and it's unclear if the Dodgers are even the best team in the National League anymore. They're still ahead of schedule as far as win-total pace is concerned, but getting 99 wins is way less of a sure thing than it seemed to be at the start of Memorial Day weekend.

San Diego Padres: A+
Preseason Line: 89.5; Current Projection: 100.0

While the Dodgers have sputtered, the Padres have surged right back into NL West contention with wins in seven of their last nine games. Four of those wins were shutouts, two of which were started by Joe Musgrove, who refuses to make anything other than quality starts and who now has an MLB-best 1.50 ERA. (Teammate MacKenzie Gore also entered Saturday night with a 1.50 ERA but not enough innings pitched to qualify on the leaderboard.) If you had to hand out awards today, Musgrove would earn NL Cy Young honors, while Manny Machado would probably be the NL MVP. Fernando Tatis Jr. (wrist) will be back at some point too. The 16 remaining games between the Padres and Dodgers should be great theatre.

San Francisco Giants: C
Preseason Line: 86.5; Current Projection: 89.4

We wrap things up with a team that has been exactly what Vegas thought it would be. Prior to opening this series against the Dodgers with back-to-back wins, the Giants were on pace for 86.8 wins, firmly entrenched as the third-best team in the NL West. The pitching has been solid, but they could certainly afford to add an arm before the trade deadline. And the batting has been a master class in the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Not a single Giant is hitting at anything close to an All-Star level, yet only the Mets and Dodgers have averaged more runs per game. But because not a single player on the roster is performing at an unsustainably-above-average level—and because all 32 of their games against the D-Backs, Cubs and Pirates are still to come—over 86.5 and a postseason berth still look good here.

   

Read 0 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)