Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

MLB Offseason: 1 Bold Prediction for Each Top Free Agent, Trade Target

Joel Reuter

This year's MLB offseason promises more activity than ever during February with so many notable free agents still looking for a new home.

The hot stove finally sprung to life last week when the Milwaukee Brewers made aggressive moves to sign Lorenzo Cain and acquire Christian Yelich.

But there are still several significant dominos waiting to fall.

J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas headline the position-player market, while catcher J.T. Realmuto and a host of Brewers outfielders are the top names on the trade front.

On the pitching side, front-line starters Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, second-tier arms Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn and All-Star closer Greg Holland are all still available.

So let's make some bold predictions about each of those players, shall we?

Brewers Outfielders: No One Is Traded Before Opening Day

Keon Broxton Benny Sieu/Associated Press

To say the Milwaukee Brewers have an outfield logjam would be an understatement.

Here's a look at their options after the surprising Yelich and Cain acquisitions:

With Yelich and Cain both locks for an everyday role and Ryan Braun essentially immovable thanks to the $56 million he's owed over the next three years, shopping Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana would seem to make sense.

However, the team could instead send Broxton to Triple-A—he has one option remainingand use Braun in a partial platoon with Eric Thames at first base to open at-bats for Santana.

A few years ago, the Chicago Cubs entered the season with a glut of outfielders after the surprising decision to bring back Dexter Fowler. One Kyle Schwarber injury later, things suddenly weren't so crowded.

So despite their need for pitching help and a clear abundance of outfielders, here's predicting that all six of the players listed above are members of the Milwaukee organization when Opening Day arrives.

Jake Arrieta: Returns to Chicago on a 4-Year Deal

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Team president Theo Epstein didn't mince his words earlier in 2018 when talking about the club's offseason plans, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com.

"We're not done," he said. "We certainly would like to add another pitcher. I like our talent, but we can add to the depth. You can do that through depth moves or you can do it through adding another real quality pitcher and bolster the depth more that way."

The Cubs have been linked to top free-agent starters Darvish and Cobb at various times this offseason, and a reunion with Jake Arrieta is still on the table.

In fact, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cubs are "willing to bring back Arrieta on a four-year deal for about $110 million" but are not willing to meet his six- or seven-year asking price.

Given how the free-agent market has unfolded, that $110 million offer is looking better with each passing day. That might wind up being the best contract on the table once all the chips are down.

Some team, such as the Philadelphia Phillies, could be willing to give more annual value or an extra year, but is that worth leaving a clear contender for a club on the fringe?

That's the question Arrieta will have to answer.

Here's predicting the chance to win another title in Chicago will be enough for him to return on a shorter deal than he was originally seeking.

Alex Cobb: Signs with Minnesota Twins

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The Minnesota Twins have been hot on Darvish's trail all offseason.

However, they're by no means alone in their pursuit of the star right-hander, and they wisely have a backup plan in place.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports offered the following on the team's pursuit of an addition to the starting rotation:

"Twins people were wondering whether they could hang in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes. The Twins aren't believed interested in a deal beyond five years, and there is a belief they wouldn't beat the Cubs all things being equal. So that could be an issue.

"Alex Cobb is believed to be their fallback choice for the rotation."

Cobb, 30, returned strong from Tommy John surgery last season to set a career-high in innings pitched (179.1) while going 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

He's undoubtedly a tier below Darvish, but he'd still be a welcome addition to join Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios atop the Twins rotation.

Considering Minnesota has never given out a free-agent deal larger than the four-year, $55 million pact it took to sign Santana, it may feel more comfortable making a final push for Cobb as opposed to breaking the bank for Darvish.

Yu Darvish: Signs a 5-Year Deal with the Yankees

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Darvish's list of suitors remains lengthy.

Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram listed the Rangers, Twins, Astros, Cubs and Yankees as the five teams in serious pursuit, while Darvish himself indicated there was at least one other club in the mix.

The Astros can probably be crossed off that list after they traded for Gerrit Cole, but that still leaves an intriguing field of contenders.

If anyone in that group is willing to go to six years, it might be enough to tip the scales in their favor.

However, Darvish is a 31-year-old with 2,127.2 professional innings on his resume when his time in Japan is taken into account, so he's a riskier option for a long-term deal than most pitchers his age.

With that in mind and assuming no one is willing to go to that sixth year, it should then come down to the most attractive landing spot.

The Yankees and Cubs both have to be considered serious title contenders for 2018 and beyond, and with the Cubs already predicted to re-sign Arrieta, we'll say Darvish winds up in the Bronx.

It would certainly close the gap to the champion Astros on the AL side.

Greg Holland: Signs for Less Money Than Several Non-Closers

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Holland's ongoing free agency could mean one of two things.

The Scott Boras client is content to wait out the market and confident he'll find someone willing to meet his asking price.

That, or teams are having a hard time overlooking that 6.38 ERA he posted in the second half last season, even in a market that was thin on proven closing options.

If the latter is true, it will be interesting to see what sort of contract Holland signs.

A handful of relievers who didn't serve as their team's full-time closer last season have already received annual salaries north of the $6 million Holland made in 2017 in an up-and-down campaign:

We've also seen Fernando Rodney—who is expected to close in Minnesotasign for just $4.5 million. That's less than the Twins paid Reed to serve as his setup man.

So while there's still a chance a big payday is waiting for Holland this offseason, let's say his annual salary winds up below at least a few players on the above list.

Eric Hosmer: Signs the Only Free-Agent Deal Longer Than 5 Years

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Cain signed a five-year, $80 million contract with the Brewers and Justin Upton inked a five-year, $106 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels instead of exercising his opt-out clause.

Those are the two longest deals of the offseason so far. Will anyone sign for more than five years?

Heyman and MLB Trade Rumors both predicted six-year contacts for Martinez and Darvish when the offseason began.

However, it's looking more and more like both players will have to settle for five years, which could leave Hosmer as the only player to receive a longer deal this winter.

According to Nightengale, the Kansas City Royals have made a seven-year, $147 million offer to bring back the homegrown star, while the San Diego Padres came in a bit lower at seven years and $140 million.

The fact he'll be 28 years old for the entirety of the 2018 season makes him a more attractive option for a long-term deal than almost any other free agent.

Whether he's worth $20 million-$21 million per season is debatable, but he's capable of being a cornerstone player, and after hitting .318/.385/.498 with 31 doubles, 25 home runs and 94 RBI on his way to 4.0 WAR, he's ready to cash in.

Bonus prediction: The Padres' more promising long-term outlook outweighs the slightly larger offer from the Royals and he winds up in San Diego.

Lance Lynn: Signs with the Washington Nationals

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Washington Nationals have shown interest in Lynn.

With Joe Ross recovering from Tommy John surgery, the in-house options to fill the rotation's No. 5 spot are prospect Erick Fedde, right-hander A.J. Cole and non-roster invitees Tommy Milone and Edwin Jackson.

Lynn, 30, is said to be seeking a deal of at least four years and $15 million-plus annually, per Heyman.

How does he fit into the team's plans?

In an article earlier this year, I wrote"[The $15 million asking price is] a slight uptick from the $12 million that [Gio] Gonzalez is making this season, and with that salary coming off the books next winter and the left-hander potentially heading elsewhere, signing Lynn now to boost the team's chances in 2018 and serve as his eventual replacement in the No. 3 starter role makes perfect sense."

Simply put, it's a terrific move for the present and future.

In his return from Tommy John surgery, Lynn went 11-8 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 153 strikeouts in 186.1 innings.

J.D. Martinez: Won't Sign Until After March 1

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Martinez is the top hitter on the free-agent market after posting a 166 OPS+ with 45 home runs and 104 RBI last season, despite playing just 119 games and tallying 489 plate appearances.

Yet, he's still looking for a new team and remains far apart in negotiations.

How far off are the offers?

Heyman wrote: "The interested teams are believed [to be] offering somewhere in the $120 million to $150 million range (yes, that's a big range, but the offers to this point are unknown). So it's believed he's in the neighborhood of around $50 million short of the asking price at present."

He's not the only notable free agent still looking for a new home, either, and at least one top free agent is ready to make a statement.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported: 

"Recently, one of the best free agents available this offseason met with a friend, and he admitted something shocking: He was preparing to sit out until the middle of the season. The market for his services this winter was so thin, the offers so incompatible with his production, that he worried he was going to need an external force to compel teams to pay him what his numbers say he's worth. Maybe it would take a playoff race."

Martinez could well be the mystery player from that report.

The smart money might be on the Boston Red Sox to land the slugger, but with the sides still so far apart, the courtship could stretch into spring training and beyond.

Mike Moustakas: Signs a 1-Year Deal

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The market for Moustakas has failed to develop, and a number of factors are at play.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com offered up the following explanations:

Just how weak is his earning power?

One general manager told Feinsand: "He's a solid player but not a star. When you see what [Jay] Bruce got from the Mets, it's hard to see Moustakas getting more than that."

Bruce received a three-year, $39 million deal from New York.

Throw in the fact Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez are both still available, and Moustakas might wind up having to settle for a one-year deal.

If he can show marked improvement in his on-base skills after posting a .314 OBP and 5.7 percent walk rate, he could be better positioned for a long-term deal next wintereven if he fails to match the 38 home runs he hit in 2017.

J.T. Realmuto: Traded to the Nationals for a Package Built Around Carter Kieboom

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

The writing is on the wall for Realmuto.

The payroll-slashing Miami Marlins have already traded Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and Yelich this offseason.

Realmuto, 26, is not headed for a huge payday as the player and team exchanged figures of $2.9 million and $3.5 million in his first year of arbitration.

However, the standout backstop would bring a huge prospect return for the rebuilding organization.

He's under team control through 2020 and coming off a season in which he hit .278/.332/.451 with 31 doubles, 17 home runs, 65 RBI and 68 runs scored en route to 3.6 WAR.

The Washington Nationals make the most sense as a landing spot after veteran Matt Wieters disappointed with a 63 OPS+ and minus-0.6 WAR in his first season with the team.

So what will Realmuto cost?

According to Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com, the Nationals are unwilling to part with top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto in a trade, but that's not necessarily a deal-breaker for the Marlins.

That leaves Carter Kieboom—who posted an .889 OPS with 25 extra-base hits in 255 plate appearances while reaching Single-A—as the likely centerpiece of a trade package.

From there, it might also take one of Erick Fedde and Seth Romero as a secondary piece and a mid-level prospect or two to boot.

It would address the biggest weakness on an expected contender, though, and the Nationals have every reason to pull the trigger if they can swing a trade without losing Robles and Soto.

                    

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.

   

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