Although the coaching carousel is always busy around college football, the 2024 offseason spun it into overdrive.

Nick Saban retired after building a juggernaut at Alabama, and his departure set off a wave of changes. Washington, Arizona and San Jose State all needed to hire a new coach in the aftermath.

Additionally, some familiar names—from Bill O'Brien to Manny Diaz to Derek Mason—are back as head coaches.

In total, there are 30 Football Bowl Subdivision programs with a new head coach. We've organized them into a handful of tiers relative to expectations in 2024, starting with the "oh, please don't lose every game" category to legitimate national contenders.

Note: The list excludes David Braun, who served Northwestern as the interim boss in 2023 and earned the permanent job.

Tier 5: Year Zero

When a program needs a major rebuild, the first season can hardly be held against a new coach. So, it's called "Year Zero."

Last season, both Louisiana-Monroe and Nevada finished 2-10. Bryant Vincent has taken over at ULM, which is hoping his offensive background will boost an offense that averaged just 17.3 points in 2023. Nevada has turned to Jeff Choate, who previously led Montana State from 2016 to '20 before becoming the co-defensive coordinator at Texas.

Buffalo and UTEP each posted a 3-9 record in 2023. Buffalo landed a coach with MAC experience in Pete Lembo, the former boss at Ball State. UTEP, meanwhile, hired Scotty Walden for his first opportunity as the permanent coach. He was the interim at Southern Miss in 2020.

New Mexico is aiming to improve on a 4-8 mark under Bronco Mendenhall, a former UNM assistant who coached BYU for 11 years and Virginia for six more. However, he inherited a program that hasn't cracked four wins since 2016.

Tier 4: It's Not Terrible Here

In this section, each program is heading toward the 2024 campaign with low expectations. Attaining bowl eligibility is possible, but nobody will be panicking if the team falls a win or two short.

Curt Cignetti, who helped James Madison make a smooth transition to the FBS, is now at Indiana. Were it not for the Hoosiers' reasonably tame schedule, this could be a Year Zero situation.

Another power-conference leaper, Willie Fritz oversaw a huge turnaround at Tulane. He led the program to six bowls in his last five seasons, winning 23 games over the last two seasons—with, most notably, a triumph over USC in the Cotton Bowl—before heading to Houston.

Longtime offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby landed his first head-coaching opportunity with Mississippi State, as well.

Rounding out the list, former Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason is back on the headset with Middle Tennessee.

Tier 3: Bowl Game, Hopefully

For these coaches, anything short of reaching a bowl might not be viewed with much understanding. Actually being part of a race for a conference championship, on the other hand, would be celebrated.

This group is expansive, too.

In the new-look ACC, bowl eligibility is an adequate goal for Boston College's Bill O'Brien, Duke's Manny Diaz and Syracuse's Fran Brown. The same applies to Michigan State's Jonathan Smith and UCLA's DeShaun Foster in the revamped Big Ten.

The future of Oregon State's program is still in flux, but former defensive coordinator Trent Bray can stabilize the team in 2024.

Bray and OSU will take on San Jose State, one of three Mountain West schools with a new coach and postseason hopes. SJSU hired former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, while San Diego State plucked Sean Lewis and Wyoming promoted Jay Sawvel.

Georgia State and South Alabama—both seven-win teams in 2023—needed to replace a head coach who departed for a Power 4 coordinator job. They brought on Dell McGee and Major Applewhite, respectively.

Jerry Kill resigned after leading New Mexico State to the second 10-win season in program history. NMSU is moving forward with Tony Sanchez, who went 20-40 at UNLV from 2015-19.

Tier 2: Will They Contend?

From a talent perspective, these programs have a best-case scenario of competing for a conference championship. Any transition to a new coach is fickle, though.

Jedd Fisch propelled a rapid ascent at Arizona, and he'll have veteran quarterback Will Rogers in Year 1 at Washington.

Texas A&M probably won't be a factor in a stacked SEC, but Mike Elko rapidly elevated Duke in his two seasons there. The return of quarterback Conner Weigman is another big reason for optimism at A&M.

In the Sun Belt, back-to-back champion Troy is dealing with a considerable rebuild in Gerad Parker's debut season. It's a similar story for Bob Chesney at James Madison, which is finally eligible to play for a conference title following its FBS transition period.

Tier 1: Chasing the CFP

Thanks to automatic qualifiers, this handful of teams has a legitimate hope of making the College Football Playoff.

First, there are Group of Five programs Boise State and Tulane. Spencer Danielson orchestrated a late-season surge at Boise and actually won a Mountain West title as the interim coach. Fritz left Tulane in a terrific spot for recent Troy coach Jon Sumrall, who also benefits from SMU's departure from the American to the ACC.

Arizona, meanwhile, jumped to the Big 12 as the Pac-12 crumbled. Breakout quarterback Noah Fifita and star receiver Tetairoa McMillan give Brent Brennan a great foundation for his debut in Tucson.

The major schools, of course, are Alabama and Michigan.

Jalen Milroe was already a strong Heisman Trophy contender, and Kalen DeBoer is one of the nation's most respected offensive coaches. Alabama is widely expected to reach the CFP yet again.

Michigan lost a mountain of talent to the NFL, and the QB situation is still unsettled. But the defense should be outstanding, giving Sherrone Moore a nice margin for error as the offense is rebuilt.