James Harden and Luka Dončić Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images

Hot Takes and Player Predictions for Every Set 2024 NBA Playoff Matchup

Andy Bailey

The 2024 NBA playoffs are upon us, which means it's time to fire up the hot-take machine for all of the series that are set throughout the league.

Anyone can make your run-of-the-mill "Team X is going to win in six" predictions. We're going to go a bit further here with individual player predictions and at least one hot take for each series.

The article will be updated as each matchup is determined.

Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

Jayson Tatum and Tyler Herro Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

After dominating the Chicago Bulls in the play-in tournament on Friday, the Miami Heat locked up the East's eighth seed and a chance to face the Boston Celtics again.

Unfortunately, due to the MCL injury he suffered in the first play-in game against the Philadelphia 76ers, Jimmy Butler is reportedly out for several weeks. And his absence probably robs this series of any drama it may have had.

Hot Take:

Miami Still Steals a Game

Miami has plenty of experience playing without Butler. And this season, when Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo were on the floor without him, the Heat were plus-1.3 points per 100 possessions.

That's not a great mark, but it supports how competitive Erik Spoelstra keeps this team, regardless of who's available.

You can be sure he'll have a creative and focused gameplan for each and every contest in the series. And he, Herro and Adebayo have enough ability and pride to sneak one win against this all-time great regular-season team.

Other Player Predictions

In the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, in which the Heat beat the Celtics, Jayson Tatum shot 46.9 percent from the field and 23.4 percent from deep. Jaylen Brown was at 41.8 percent from the field and 16.3 percent from three.

Both will be a lot closer to their 2023-24 production levels in this series, and the Celtics will likely cruise to a four- or five-game series win.

Eastern Conference: New York Knicks (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

The Philadelphia 76ers survived a slugfest with the Miami Heat to advance past the 7-8 play-in game and lock in a matchup with the New York Knicks.

And if the last two seasons of the Jalen Brunson-led Knicks are any indication, things aren't going to get any easier for Philly in the first round.

Hot Take:

Jalen Brunson Leads the Series in Scoring, But It's Not Enough

In the play-in game, Joel Embiid looked, to put it mildly, tired. He summoned whatever he had left in the reserves to dominate the fourth quarter as both a scorer and passer, but it's safe to say his time on the sidelines with a knee injury impacted his condition.

There is no such rust on Brunson, who averaged 37.8 points, 8.3 assists and 3.2 threes, while shooting 40.0 percent from deep over his last 10 regular-season games.

In this series, against a Philadelphia team without De'Anthony Melton and really any other perimeter stoppers, Brunson will stay hot. He may not average near 40, like he did during that closing kick, but he'll be the leading scorer in the series.

And somehow, that won't quite be enough to beat the fully healthy Sixers.

If you count the play-in game, Philadelphia is 32-8 with Embiid in the lineup this season. That's a 66-win pace over the course of a full season.

New York is a tough, aggressive and defensive team, but the two-man game of Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, especially when it's flanked by the shooting of Nicolas Batum and Buddy Hield, is essentially unstoppable.

Other Player Predictions

With the playoff whistle, Embiid will continue to struggle from the field (he was 5-of-17 in Wednesday's win and has a career playoff field-goal percentage of 46.1), but the attention he commands and his improved passing ability will still make him a massive factor.

Embiid will average around six assists, spraying out to shooters like Hield, Maxey and Batum.

The series will be close, though. Thanks in part to a couple hot shooting nights from Donte DiVincenzo, who was third in the league in total made threes this season, the series will get to six or seven games.

Eastern Conference: Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs. Indiana Pacers (6)

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Haliburton Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The Milwaukee Bucks enter the postseason with plenty of questions, after going 19-20 since firing Adrian Griffin just over halfway through the season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the last three games of the season with a calf strain, their defense finished in the bottom half of the league, Damian Lillard was among this season's worst shooters and they went 1-4 against the Indiana Pacers this season.

And of course, things broke perfectly to have them face those Pacers in the first round.

Hot Take:

Giannis Starts Game 1 and Dominates the Series

The Antetokounmpo injury originally looked pretty scary. It was totally non-contact, and he needed help getting off the floor. Worst-case scenario, it looked like a potential Achilles problem. That it was just a calf strain and Milwaukee was able to rest him down the stretch bodes well for Milwaukee.

And we already have some precedent for him returning from a late- or postseason injury to dominate a series. In 2021, when the Bucks won the title, Giannis missed the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals after a scary hyperextension of his knee. Then he came back earlier than expected and averaged 35.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals in 39.8 minutes during the Finals.

The individual numbers might not be quite impressive for Antetokounmpo in Round 1, but his individual dominance will overcome all the concerns that have plagued Milwaukee all season and push his team to the conference semifinals.

Other Player Predictions

That doesn't mean the Bucks will simply coast through this series, though. Indiana will win a couple games, and Tyrese Haliburton's shot will get back on track against Milwaukee's porous perimeter defense. Haliburton has hit just 32.4 percent of his threes since returning from injury in late January, but he'll be closer to 40 against the Bucks.

Expect a strong offensive series from Lillard too. His shooting was bad throughout the regular season, but he'll be geared up for the playoffs. And facing a near-bottom-five defense like Indiana's will give him an opportunity to find an early rhythm.

Eastern Conference: Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Orlando Magic (5)

Joe Ingles and Donovan Mitchell Rich Storry/Getty Images

The Orlando Magic obliterated the Milwaukee Bucks in the final game of the season to avoid the play-in tournament and now get to face a Cleveland Cavaliers squad that sputtered to the finish line.

The Cavs went 13-18 in their final 31 games and suddenly have the specter of a potential Donovan Mitchell trade hanging over their heads.

If they have another first-round flameout, you can almost guarantee the rumors will start swirling this summer.

Hot Take:

Orlando Upsets the Cavs and Franz Wagner Finds His Outside Shot

After shooting a respectable 35.8 percent from deep over his first two seasons, Franz Wagner's three-point percentage plummeted to 28.1 in 2023-24.

An 84.9 career free-throw percentage and those earlier connection rates from deep suggest this season's mark could be an outlier, though. And with the matchup problems Orlando's starting five creates for just about anyone, Wagner is going to get loose from deep, and his outside shooting will be a big part of Orlando winning the series.

Other Player Predictions

Struggles for Cleveland's frontcourt will be part of that outcome too. It was bullied by the New York Knicks last postseason, and the Magic enter the postseason as one of the league's biggest and best rebounding teams.

Paolo Banchero will have a big series too, as Cleveland will almost certainly have to commit an undersized defender to either him or Wagner.

Western Conference: Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (8)

Naji Marshall and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Jonathan Bachman/NBAE via Getty Images

The New Orleans Pelicans escaped the play-in tournament, but they didn't manage to do it unscathed.

In the final seconds of their loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in the 7-8 game, Zion Williamson came up hobbling with a hamstring injury. And his likely absence from the first round makes it hard to imagine an upset.

Hot Take:

New Orleans Still Steals a Game

Still, the Pelicans were actually better (at least by net points per 100 possessions) when Zion was off the floor this season.

They're more mobile defensively and have a little better chance to win the three-point battle without the big man, and the variance of that latter category is going to allow them to upend OKC in at least one game.

Other Player Predictions

The Thunder should still win the series, though. And despite a severe lack of playoff experience on OKC's roster, it will still provide some monster performances.

The most obvious candidate for that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who'll average at least 30 points, despite getting a tougher whistle than he did in the regular season.

Jalen Williams will continue his breakout, too. After averaging 19.1 points this regular season, he'll clear 20 a game against the Pelicans.

Western Conference: Denver Nuggets (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Nikola Jokić and LeBron James Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

The Los Angeles Lakers outlasted the New Orleans Pelicans in the 7-8 play-in game to earn a rematch of last season's Western Conference Finals with the Denver Nuggets.

That series, of course, ended in a sweep, and the Nuggets went on to win their first championship. Denver then went 3-0 against the Lakers this regular season.

But the last time those teams met was in early March, and L.A. went 14-6 since that loss. LeBron James and Anthony Davis look fresh, and D'Angelo Russell has been on fire since the All-Star break.

This series could be more competitive than recent history suggests.

Hot Take:

This Series Goes Seven Games

Again, the last 12 months suggests the Nuggets should roll in this series. They have the best player in the world in Nikola Jokić. He and Jamal Murray both find extra gears in the postseason every year.

But the Lakers are going to bring a little extra pride to this opportunity to avenge last postseason. The team has finally found the right rotation, now that Darvin Ham is starting Rui Hachimura. And L.A. is going to dominate Denver in free-throw attempts.

Since the start of last season, the Lakers have taken 1,104 more free-throw attempts than their opponents. The New York Knicks are second on that list at plus-372, and the Nuggets are 21st at minus-194.

That disparity is going to continue throughout this series, and it will swing a couple games.

Still, Denver has the better, younger duo, a superior starting five and a couple emerging sparkplugs off the bench in Peyton Watson and Christian Braun. This series will go longer than it did last year, but the Nuggets should still come out on top.

Other Player Predictions

In the 2023 conference finals, Russell averaged 6.3 points and was essentially played out of the rotation. He'll still struggle defensively against Murray, but his offensive production will be closer to the 18.0 points, 6.3 assists and 3.0 threes he averaged this regular season.

That doesn't mean he'll outperform his counterpart in Denver, though. Murray averaged 32.5 points, 5.3 assists and 3.8 threes against the Lakers last postseason, and he shot 45.7 percent from three since this season's All-Star break. He'll be locked in for this series, and L.A. doesn't really have anyone to stop him.

Western Conference: Minnesota Timberwolves (3) vs. Phoenix Suns (6)

Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Durant David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images

We got a preview of this one on the final day of the regular season, when the Phoenix Suns cruised to a 125-106 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

In that single matchup, the great offense prevailed over the great defense, but that doesn't necessarily mean that'll happen throughout a seven-game series.

Hot Take:

Devin Booker Outscores Anthony Edwards and Phoenix Gets the Upset

It was a pretty underwhelming campaign for the uber-expensive Suns, but it's easy to chalk that up to injuries, and the team is suddenly healthy in time for the playoffs.

Devin Booker, specifically, has been heating up over the last few weeks. Over his final 13 games, he averaged 27.1 points, 6.8 assists and 2.9 threes, while shooting 39.2 percent from deep. And that hot shooting is going to continue against Minnesota and help improve the five-man net rating Phoenix has when its best players are available.

For the season, the Suns were plus-11.1 points per 100 possessions when Booker, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkić are all on the floor.

Other Player Predictions

Don't think of that as a prediction that Edwards will struggle, though. Expect a shootout between the two superstar guards.

The Wolves just won't have enough firepower from the rest of the rotation to trade haymakers with Booker, Durant, Beal and Allen, who flew under the radar to lead the NBA in three-point percentage this season.

Western Conference: Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Dallas Mavericks (5)

Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

Luka Dončić has lost both of his playoff series to the Los Angeles Clippers, but it's hard to fault him for that.

In 13 postseason appearances against L.A., the Dallas Mavericks' MVP candidate has averaged 33.5 points, 9.5 assists, 8.8 rebounds and 3.6 threes per game while shooting 49.4 percent from the field and 39.2 percent from deep. Those numbers are bonkers in any context, but the fact that they've come in the playoffs and against a team with plenty of perimeter defense makes them even more impressive.

As hard as it is to imagine anyone being more productive than that, Dončić's playoff numbers are the basis of our bold prediction:

Hot Take:

Luka Raises Those Numbers In This Series

Throughout his career, Dončić has had a knack for finding another gear in the playoffs. If that happens again, he'll be improving on what was undoubtedly his best regular season.

That doesn't necessarily mean the Mavericks will win the series. L.A. has overcome Herculean performances from Luka before. But those Dallas teams didn't have Kyrie Irving.

Other Player Predictions

Now that he's fully adapted to life alongside Dončić, Kyrie is going to average more than 25 points per game in this series, score 40 in at least one game and help the Mavericks finally overcome the Clippers.

On the other side, Paul George is going to have his fourth straight postseason with a sub-34 three-point percentage, and James Harden is going to score in single digits in at least one game.

Book it.

   

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