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Favorites, Contenders and Dark Horses for Every Major MLB Award in 2024

Joel Reuter

The 2024 MLB season is here, and while it will be months before the major award races take shape, now is the perfect time to set the stage for the favorites, contenders and dark horses to take home the hardware.

Using the latest odds from DraftKings, we highlighted the front-runner, five other leading contenders and one dark horse pick to keep an eye on for the AL and NL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year.

No one has won back-to-back MVP awards since Miguel Cabrera with the Detroit Tigers in 2012 and 2013, while Jacob deGrom is the last pitcher to win Cy Young in consecutive years. Just something to keep in mind when considering where last year's winners stack up to the field.

Let's dive into this year's major MLB award picture!

AL MVP

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The Favorite: Aaron Judge (+550)

It's not surprising to see Aaron Judge with the best odds to win AL MVP honors. Even limited to 106 games last season, he still posted a 175 OPS+ with 37 home runs and 4.5 WAR to finish 15th in the AL balloting, and that came a year after he took home the hardware with his historic 62-homer, 131-RBI campaign. The injury possibility makes him a risky pick, but it wouldn't be surprising in the least to see him win the award if he stays healthy.

Other Top Contenders: Julio Rodríguez (+600), Juan Soto (+600), Yordan Alvarez (+800), Corey Seager (+1000), Bobby Witt Jr. (+1300)

While the love for J-Rod and Juan Soto is understandable as they are two superstars who have not yet reached their prime years, it feels like the oddsmakers are sleeping on 2023 AL runner-up Corey Seager. He had an absurd 75 extra-base hits in 119 games last year while hitting .327/.390/.623 for a 170 OPS+, and then he became just the fourth player ever to win a second World Series MVP. With Shohei Ohtani moving on to the NL, it could be his award to lose.

Dark-Horse Pick: Randy Arozarena (+10000)

Randy Arozarena was hitting .279/.388/.467 with 16 home runs, 58 RBI and 10 steals at the break last season to earn his first All-Star Game start. He faded a bit in the second half but still posted his third straight 20/20 season, and it's easy to envision him being the best MVP candidate for a Rays squad that is expected to be in the thick of contention. His walk rate spiking to a career-high 12.2 percent last year is a clear sign he is still improving.

NL MVP

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The Favorite: Ronald Acuña Jr. (+500)

Ronald Acuña Jr. took home NL MVP honors unanimously last season after hitting .337/.416/.596 while posting the first 40-homer, 70-steal season in MLB history, so why wouldn't he be the favorite once again? Still only 26 years old and with his torn ACL now far in the rearview, he is the best player in the best lineup in baseball.

Other Top Contenders: Mookie Betts (+650), Shohei Ohtani (+750), Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000), Bryce Harper (+1000), Freddie Freeman (+1200)

Just outside the next five contenders is the 2023 NL home run leader Matt Olson (+1500) and Corbin Carroll (+1800), and they belong in this conversation as well. It will be interesting to see if Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman split votes, or if someone can emerge from that group as the Dodgers' leading contender.

Dark-Horse Pick: Jordan Walker (+18000)

Paul Goldschmidt (+3500) and Nolan Arenado (+4000) are the MVP favorites on the St. Louis Cardinals roster, but it wouldn't be surprising to see 2023 rookie Jordan Walker take a step forward to emerge as the team's most productive player. The 21-year-old was one of the 10 youngest players in baseball last year, and he posted a 114 OPS+ with 19 doubles, 16 home runs and 51 RBI in 117 games. How much better can he get in his second season?

AL Cy Young

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The Favorites: Corbin Burnes (+700), Kevin Gausman (+700)

Kevin Gausman has been slowed a bit by shoulder fatigue this spring, but there's no reason to think he won't use his lethal splitter to mow down MLB hitters once again in 2024 after finishing in the top 10 in balloting each of the past three seasons. In a wide-open AL field, Corbin Burnes jumps straight to the co-leader position as he will look to join a short list of guys to win the award in both leagues.

Other Top Contenders: Luis Castillo (+800), Framber Valdez (+800), Tarik Skubal (+900), Cole Ragans (+900), George Kirby (+1200)

Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans and George Kirby are three of baseball's biggest rising stars on the mound, and if they can pick up where they left off during the second half last season, there is no question they can be in the thick of the AL Cy Young race. It's nice to see George Kirby getting the respect he deserves after a terrific 2023 campaign.

Dark-Horse Pick: Bryce Miller (+8000)

Bryce Miller burst onto the scene last year with a 1.15 ERA, 0.51 WHIP and a 28-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.1 innings over his first five starts in the big leagues. The 25-year-old took some lumps along the way during his rookie season, finishing with a 4.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 119 strikeouts in 131.1 innings, and he may be just scratching the surface of his long-term ceiling.

NL Cy Young

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The Favorite: Spencer Strider (+450)

It seems like only a matter of time before Spencer Strider wins a Cy Young Award with electric stuff that saw him rack up 281 strikeouts in 186.2 innings last season. If he can avoid duds like the ones he had on June 8 (4.0 IP, 8 ER), Aug. 7 (2.2 IP, 6 ER) and Sept. 6 (2.2 IP, 6 ER), he should be able to slash his 3.86 ERA from a year ago.

Other Top Contenders: Zack Wheeler (+800), Logan Webb (+950), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1000), Zac Gallen (+1200), Max Fried (+1300)

Work-horse aces Logan Webb (second), Zac Gallen (third) and Zack Wheeler (sixth) all finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting last year, and they should be in the thick of the award race once again in 2024. After an injury-plagued 2023 campaign and with free agency looming next offseason, Max Fried has a lot to prove this year.

Dark-Horse Pick: Merrill Kelly (+4000)

My NL Cy Young pick Freddy Peralta (+1500) does not quite qualify as a dark horse, but how about those odds on Merrill Kelly? The 35-year-old has been a late-blooming star for the D-backs after a stint in the KBO, and he went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 187 strikeouts in 177.2 innings before a strong playoff run.

AL Rookie of the Year

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The Favorite: Wyatt Langford (+225)

Wyatt Langford was still playing at the University of Florida at this time a year ago, and after raking in his pro debut and then hitting .365/.423/.714 with six home runs and 20 RBI this spring, he has played his way onto the Opening Day roster. The 22-year-old has the potential to be an instant star in the middle of the Texas Rangers lineup.

Other Top Contenders: Evan Carter (+310), Jackson Holliday (+450), Colt Keith (+1000), Colton Cowser (+1200), Ceddanne Rafaela (+1200)

Could we see another battle between teammates for Rookie of the Year honors like Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider for the Atlanta Braves in 2022? It certainly feels like Evan Carter belongs alongside Langford as co-favorite for the AL hardware. The candidacy of Jackson Holliday will hinge on when he finally makes his MLB debut.

Dark-Horse Pick: Coby Mayo (+5000)

Coby Mayo hit .290/.410/.564 with 45 doubles, 29 home runs and 99 RBI in 140 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year to send his prospect stock soaring, and he continued to impress this spring when he hit .360/.448/.560 over 58 plate appearances. He could force his way into the MLB picture with a strong start back in the minors.

NL Rookie of the Year

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The Favorite: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+260)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto went 17-6 with a 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 176 strikeouts in 171 innings for the Orix Buffaloes last year, taking home his third straight Eiji Sawamura Award in the process. The Dodgers gave him a 12-year, $325 million deal during the offseason, and while he had a shaky MLB debut in the Seoul Series, the pieces are there for him to be a front-line starter for the next decade.

Other Top Contenders: Jung Hoo Lee (+500), Jackson Chourio (+600), Shōta Imanaga (+800), Jackson Merrill (+950), Kyle Harrison (+1400)

How quickly will Jung Hoo Lee and Shōta Imanaga settle in as big leaguers? How will Jackson Merrill handle the transition from shortstop to center field? Can Kyle Harrison get a handle on his command to reach his top-of-the-rotation upside? Is Jackson Chourio ready for the majors after turning 20 just a few weeks ago? The NL Rookie of the Year field is wide open.

Dark-Horse Pick: Yuki Matsui (+4000)

Yuki Matsui was a lights-out closer for the Rakuten Golden Eagles for several years, including a 2023 season in which he had a career-high 39 saves with a 1.57 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 59 appearances. The left-hander is currently slotted in a setup role bridging the gap to Robert Suárez in the San Diego bullpen, but if he ends up closing games he could quickly push his way into the Rookie of the Year picture.

   

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