Miami's Jesus Luzardo Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Last-Minute Blockbuster MLB Trade Ideas Before 2024 Season

Kerry Miller

Rosters for Opening Day of the 2024 MLB season are just about set in stone.

Or are they?

A blockbuster trade this close to Opening Day would be unusual, but not unprecedented. Two years ago, Craig Kimbrel, Miguel Castro, Joely Rodríguez, Isaac Paredes, Victor Caratini, Taylor Rogers, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan were all traded in the final week before Opening Day.

Granted, that was the lockout offseason where no team could do much of anything for three-and-a-half months. But it was a good reminder—especially in a winter where the free-agency cycle never quite ended—that it's never too late for teams to put final preseason touches on what they hope will be a championship-caliber lineup and rotation.

With that in mind, we drew up six hypothetical, mutually beneficial trades that would hit at least as hard as the "Dylan Cease to the Padres" news from two weeks ago.

Trade ideas are presented in no particular order, and have all been graded as either "Fair Trade" or "Minor Overpay" by the Baseball Trade Values simulator.

Another White Sox-Padres Swap

Luis Robert Jr. Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

The Trade

San Diego Padres Receive: CF Luis Robert Jr.

Chicago White Sox Receive: C Ethan Salas and LHP Jagger Haynes

The Reasoning

For the White Sox, the 2024 season is effectively already over. We all knew they had no chance of contending, and even they gave up before the season began by shipping Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres two weeks ago.

At this point, all that's left for them to do is get something nice in exchange for Luis Robert Jr. Robert is owed $12.5 million this season and $15 million next season before $20 million club options for each of 2026 and 2027.

For any team that views itself as a contender over the next half-decade, that's one heck of a deal for a former Gold Glove centerfielder and a reigning Silver Slugger who hit 38 home runs last season. Had Robert been available as a free agent this offseason, he would have gotten way more than a four-year, $67.5 million deal.

The difficulty in identifying a good trade partner for Robert and the White Sox has been pinpointing a team that both needs an outfielder and has a top-tier prospect it might be willing to give up for him.

But, hey, what about that team that just traded with Chicago for Cease?

MLB.com has 17-year-old catcher Ethan Salas as its eighth-ranked prospect in all of baseball, and Baseball Trade Values suggests Salas for Robert would be a reasonably fair one-for-one swap. San Diego might need to add another much less noteworthy prospect to get the deal across the finish line, but upgrading from Jurickson Profar in one of those starting outfield spots to Robert in center field for the next four years would be worth it.

A Colorful Exchange Between the Reds and Blue Jays

Jonathan India John E. Moore III/Getty Images

The Trade

Cincinnati Reds Receive: RHP Alek Manoah

Toronto Blue Jays Receive: 2B Jonathan India

The Reasoning

This one-for-one swap makes almost too much sense for both sides.

Even after losing Noelvi Marte to an 80-game PED suspension, the Reds still have an excess of infielders. They have Christian Encarnacion-Strand to play first, Matt McLain* at second, Elly De La Cruz at short and Jeimer Candelario at third. They also recently made a trade with Toronto, sending the Blue Jays a minor league pitcher (Chris McElvain) for utility infielder Santiago Espinal.

It's time for a much more high-profile inverse of that swap.

If Cincinnati keeps India, surely it would find frequent use for him. But would the Reds even miss him if they traded him away? He is one of six infielders—seven if you count Marte, and eight if you include Spencer Steer, who figures to start in left field this season after spending most of 2023 in the infield—whom they have under team control through at least 2026.

Meanwhile, Toronto's second base situation isn't great. After five years, it's clear that Cavan Biggio isn't the answer, leaving the Blue Jays to hope that Davis Schneider's long-term outlook is much closer to his first 21 games in the majors (.403 AVG, 7 HR) than his next 14 (.102 AVG, 1 HR).

So, maybe they bring in India and throw in the towel on Manoah?

The former budding ace, who had a disastrous 2023 campaign, pegged three batters, allowed four earned runs and recorded only five outs in his lone spring training appearance before getting sidelined by shoulder pain. If Jays believe in either of Yariel Rodriguez or Ricky Tiedemann for the fifth spot in their rotation, parting with Manoah to shore up the weakest spot in their lineup could be a game-changer.

*McLain has been ruled out for Opening Day with a shoulder injury, but it's still unclear how serious the injury is. If he's potentially out for months, the Reds won't be trading away India until at least one of Marte or McLain is back. That makes it much more likely he'll be on the block headed into the trade deadline than dealt right now. But, hey, it could still happen.

Orioles Add Another Arm

Shane Bieber Jason Miller/Getty Images

The Trade

Baltimore Orioles Receive: RHP Shane Bieber, OF George Valera

Cleveland Guardians Receive: OF Colton Cowser

The Reasoning

We saw with the Corbin Burnes trade earlier this offseason that the going rate for an ace on an expiring deal isn't as high as you might think. There was a lot of "Seriously? That's it?" when we learned the Orioles only had to give up DL Hall and Joey Ortiz—two valuable long-term assets, but not the king's ransom that a guy like Burnes could have gone for with even one more year of team control.

That brings us to Shane Bieber.

The Guardians ace won a Cy Young in 2020, but he was injured for a good chunk of last season, and his K/9 has dropped precipitously since that incredible, truncated campaign four years ago. With one year left before he hits free agency, his trade value likely isn't anything special. We're perhaps talking "Cleveland needs to add a prospect to the deal to get a legitimate impact player" trade value.

Baltimore could make a mutually agreeable swap, though. The Orioles have so many quality bats right now that they inexplicably can't even find room for Jackson Holliday on their Opening Day roster.

If the O's trade away Cowser—who has more home runs in spring training (six) than any Guardians outfielder hit in the entire 2023 season—it wouldn't really help their infield logjam. But it wouldn't hurt their 2024 outfield situation, either, which figures to be Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander with Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Ryan McKenna and Kyle Stowers as the reserve/Triple-A options.

With Santander a free agent next winter and both Hays and Mullins slated for free agency the following offseason, the O's may be reluctant to part with one of their outfielders of the future. However, getting back a decent outfield prospect (Valera) in the deal might soften the blow enough for them to consider making a big move for another one-year rental of a possible top-of-the-rotation starter.

Rays Swing Big for a New Ace

Jesús Luzardo Rich Storry/Getty Images

The Trade

Tampa Bay Rays Receive: LHP Jesús Luzardo

Miami Marlins Receive: IF Junior Caminero and OF Colton Ledbetter

The Reasoning

We've already seen several marquee starting pitchers traded this offseason—including Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, Chris Sale and Dylan Cease—but the most valuable one of all is still theoretically on the trade block.

That isn't to say Luzardo is better than any of those other pitchers, but he has three years of team control remaining. That would be extremely valuable if he can replicate for three seasons what he has done over the past two. It's likely going to cost a pretty penny for the Marlins to give him up.

Notably, though, the Rays could really use another starting pitcher. They also have two of MLB.com's top 20 prospects in Caminero and Carson Williams, both of whom happen to play the same position.

Tampa Bay could happily hang onto both of those future stars, hoping they spend the latter half of the 2020s as every bit the middle-infield sensation that Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are right now for the Texas Rangers. Swapping one of them for three years of one of the best southpaw pitchers could also be wise, though.

Caminero is the one with more trade value and the one who's much closer to becoming an everyday fixture in the majors, and even he isn't enough for a one-for-one trade for Luzardo. Adding Ledbetter—Tampa Bay's second-round pick in last year's draft—is probably enough to close that gap.

Snakes Send Shortstop; Snag Supplementary Starter

Freddy Peralta John Fisher/Getty Images

The Trade

Arizona Diamondbacks Receive: RHP Freddy Peralta

Milwaukee Brewers Receive: SS Jordan Lawlar

The Reasoning

This is more or less a carbon copy of the hypothetical Miami-Tampa Bay swap that we just finished discussing: A 2023 postseason participant that's unlikely to be a contender in 2024 trades away a nationally underrated starting pitcher with three years of team control remaining for a middle infielder who ranks among the best prospects in all of baseball.

The main difference here is that Luzardo is arbitration-eligible (AKA: cost TBD) for the next two years, while we already know Peralta has $8 million club options for each of 2025 and 2026.

As with Tampa Bay, Arizona is in a spot where both of its highest-rated prospects are middle infielders. Tommy Troy is further away from the majors than Lawlar is, as Troy just got drafted in the first round last year, while Lawlar had a cup of coffee in the majors last September and could be a legitimate contributor this season.

However, the D-Backs are theoretically going to have Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte holding down the shortstop and second base gigs for the next few years anyway. They also have Blaze Alexander as an MLB-ready versatile backup if something goes awry with either starter.

As a result, Lawlar is a long-term asset whom Arizona could afford to part with to improve the starting rotation, which Peralta would do for them.

Since the beginning of 2021, Peralta has logged 388 IP with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and an 11.4 K/9. He's quietly been about as valuable as Blake Snell over that three-year window. Pairing him with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt just might be enough for Arizona to make a run at the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

For Milwaukee, pairing Lawlar with Jackson Chourio would pave the way for them to trade away Willy Adames before he becomes a free agent next year.

One More Mariners Trade for the Road

Logan Gilbert Steph Chambers/Getty Images

The Trade

St. Louis Cardinals Receive: RHP Logan Gilbert

Seattle Mariners Receive: 3B/2B Nolan Gorman, RHP Tink Hence and OF Chase Davis

The Reasoning

Seattle had a busy offseason, making a total of 12 trades while also signing Mitch Garver and Ryne Stanek in free agency. What's one more blockbuster before the season gets underway?

In the aftermath of all that wheeling and dealing, Seattle's lineup feels a little incomplete. The M's definitely upgraded at second base and arguably improved at designated hitter, but third base, left field and right field are all looking more questionable than they did a year ago.

Might they be willing to trade from their wealth of starting pitching to address one of those spots?

Gorman had a great second season with the Cardinals, hitting 27 home runs while not even registering enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title. He mostly played second base over the past two years, but he was predominantly a third baseman early in his minor league career before learning a new position on a team where Nolan Arenado blocks the path to playing time at the hot corner. He could switch back to third base for the M's in 2024.

Gorman, who won't hit free agency until after the 2028 season, wouldn't be enough alone for Seattle to give up Logan Gilbert. The 26-year-old has been rock solid over the past two years, has four years of team control remaining and would instantly become the second-best pitcher in the Cardinals rotation.

But if the Cardinals add their top pitching prospect (Hence) and a respectable outfield prospect (Davis) to the deal, now we're talking.

   

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