The Atlanta Braves (104), Baltimore Orioles (101) and Los Angeles Dodgers (100) paced Major League Baseball in wins a season ago, only to be eliminated in the Division Series after earning first-round byes in the postseason.
That ignited a debate about whether earning a first-round bye in this playoff format—still relatively new, as it went into effect in 2022—is actually a disadvantage. The Houston Astros, though, won the 2022 World Series after having a first-round bye, and it's hard to believe that if given the opportunity, any team would pass on a few days off after a grueling 162-game campaign.
Ultimately, teams aren't going to play for second place. They'll win as many games as possible during the regular season and worry about how to overcome a layoff when it's time to cross that bridge.
With concerns about this playoff format acknowledged, here are predictions on how many games all 30 teams will win in 2024, and what clubs will wind up with the two coveted(?) first-round byes in each league.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 89-73
DraftKings Over/Under: 83.5
The Arizona Diamondbacks won 84 games a season ago, claimed the final wild-card spot in the NL and went on a Cinderella run to the World Series. They won't be sneaking up on anyone in 2024, in part because they should be an even better regular-season team.
Corbin Carroll has emerged as the game's next superstar, an outfielder who runs like a race horse and has pop. How did Arizona make sure to put a strong lineup around him and Ketel Marte? It re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. while adding veterans Eugenio Suárez and Joc Pederson.
General manager
Mike Hazen also improved the starting rotation, adding Eduardo Rodríguez
to a group that includes Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
If postseason star Brandon Pfaadt has a breakout 2024, the
Diamondbacks could have one of the better rotations in the
league.
The Diamondbacks might struggle to keep pace with the Dodgers in the NL West, but they should return to the postseason for the second year in a row, where they've already proved to be a dangerous squad.
Atlanta Braves: 98-64
DraftKings Over/Under: 101.5
Will the Atlanta Braves be a better regular-season team than they were a season ago? Probably not. But October is what matters for this team, and it'll certainly be there once again.
Matt Olson hit a franchise-record 54 home runs a year ago. Maybe he'll hit more like 45 this season. Ronald Acuña Jr. stole 73 bases a year ago, en route to winning NL MVP. As he thinks about his longevity, Acuña might be wise to pace himself, particularly on the basepaths, during the regular season.
Still, Acuña, Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II give Atlanta arguably the best lineup in baseball. Spencer Strider and Max Fried are one of the best one-two starting pitching punches in baseball, and seven-time All-Star Chris Sale has looked electric once again this spring.
Maybe the Braves won't be the best regular-season team this year. But they still figure to be dominant enough to win their seventh NL East title in a row and perhaps will be better set up for a deep playoff run than they were in either of the last two seasons with the addition of Sale.
Baltimore Orioles: 97-65
DraftKings Over/Under: 90.5
General manager Mike Elias was at the forefront of building the best teams in Houston Astros history and might have outdone that in constructing arguably the greatest farm system the sport has ever seen with the Baltimore Orioles.
Jackson Holliday—the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft—appears like he's going to be the next position-player star Baltimore's farm system produces, joining catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Gunnar Henderson. And there's plenty more position-player stars seemingly on the way from a rich farm system.
Elias acquired former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers in February. It will be interesting to see whether a new ownership group is willing to meet an asking price of $300-plus million from Burnes after the season, but for at least a year, he'll form quite the one-two punch with Grayson Rodriguez.
Baltimore's rotation should only improve as the season goes on and it gets John Means and Kyle Bradish back from injuries.
At this stage of his career, Craig Kimbrel is definitely a downgrade at closer from Félix Bautista, who will miss all of 2024 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Still, the back-end-of-the-bullpen duo of Kimbrel and Yennier Cano should allow the Orioles to capture their second consecutive AL East title and perhaps enter the postseason as the favorite to win the pennant in the Junior Circuit.
Boston Red Sox: 73-89
DraftKings Over/Under: 77.5
Boston Red Sox ownership has stopped spending like, well, like the Boston Red Sox in recent years. Doing so has likely doomed the team to a third consecutive last-place finish in the crowded AL East, perhaps in the ugliest fashion yet.
Rafael Devers is one of the best third basemen in the sport, and Triston Casas has emerged as a promising young slugger, homering 24 times in a breakout campaign a season ago. But there are legitimate questions about their middle infield, with second baseman Vaughn Grissom set to open the season on the injured list with a strained groin, and shortstop Trevor Story having struggled to stay on the field since joining the Red Sox.
Left fielder Tyler O'Neill could prove to be one of the offseason's best additions, but only if he's on the field, as he played in just 168 of a possible 324 games over the last two years with the Cardinals.
The starting rotation is where things really get ugly. Lucas Giolito will miss the entire year recovering from an internal brace procedure to correct his pitching elbow, leaving the recently extended Brayan Bello as the ace. Bello may have a bright future, but he posted a 4.24 ERA and 4.54 FIP over 157 innings a season ago. Bello and Nick Pivetta form one of the poorer one-two punches in the league.
Boston should be competitive offensively, but its offense won't be a juggernaut either. It will probably have to be if the Red Sox hope to overcome their lack of front-line starting pitching.
Chicago Cubs: 83-79
DraftKings Over/Under: 84.5
The Chicago Cubs lured manager Craig Counsell away from the division-rival Brewers in the offseason, but outside of the edge gained by signing an elite skipper, it's fair to wonder how much better the on-field product will be in 2024.
Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger is back on a three-year, $80 million deal that includes opt outs after each of the next two seasons, but there's a reason he had to settle for that deal. While he hit .307 with 26 home runs, 97 RBI and an .881 OPS, there are legitimate questions about whether he'll be able stay in that form.
First of all, his excellent 2023 campaign came after he hit .203 with a .648 OPS in his final three seasons with the Dodgers. And he only posted a 29.2 hard-hit percentage a year ago, as opposed to 49.2 percent in his MVP season of 2019.
Christopher Morel feels like a breakout candidate at the plate, and the Cubs have an elite middle infield with Dansby Swanson at shortstop and Nico Hoerner at second base. But if Bellinger disappoints in 2024, gains made elsewhere will be canceled out by his dip relative to a year ago.
Justin Steele finished fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2023, and the Cubs added Japanese star Shota Imanaga to be the No. 2 starter. Imanaga, though, will essentially replace Marcus Stroman, who was an All-Star last season before a brutal second half.
The Cubs probably won't be a worse team than they were in 2023, but how much have they really improved?
Chicago White Sox: 66-96
DraftKings Over/Under: 61.5
It will take a few years to grade the plan of new Chicago White Sox general manager Chris Getz, but it's clear in declining Tim Anderson's $14 million club option for 2024 and trading former AL Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease to the Padres that the team is rebuilding.
When healthy, Luis Robert Jr. is one of the best players in baseball, as evidenced by the 36 home runs and 13 outs above average he posted a year ago. But it's hard to find much else to be excited about with this roster.
Eloy Jiménez is another player you have to apply the "when healthy" tag to, but the slugger will likely become a popular trade target this summer if he's not on the injured list. Erick Fedde—a former first-round pick who's back stateside after winning the KBO MVP a season ago—is worth keeping an eye on in the starting rotation and could also draw trade interest if he's effective.
But this is one of the worst rosters in baseball, and there's a chance that it will get even worse in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. Just a few years ago, the White Sox seemed set up for a sustained run of success. Now, Getz has his work cut out trying to get the team back to just being respectable.
Cincinnati Reds: 87-75
DraftKings Over/Under: 81.5
The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but haven't reached the postseason during a full 162-game campaign since 2013. Is this the year that ends?
Cincinnati added doubles machine Jeimer Candelario to a lineup overflowing with young talent. Even with Matt McLain and TJ Friedl set to open the season on the injured list, manager David Bell will still be able to pencil Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand into the Opening Day lineup.
What will decide whether the Reds are a postseason team in 2024 is the success of their boom-or-bust starting rotation. Will Frankie Montas and Nick Lodolo make 25-plus starts in 2024? Can Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft have breakout seasons? There's a very high ceiling but potentially low floor for this group.
Should the Reds get enough out of their starting rotation, they have a playoff-caliber lineup that could power them to an NL Central title in 2024.
Cleveland Guardians: 79-83
DraftKings Over/Under: 79.5
José Ramírez continues to build a compelling case for Cooperstown, and his march toward being a Hall of Famer is worth watching. But it's unclear in new manager Stephen Vogt's first season how much else there is for Guardians fans to feel good about.
At least until slugging first base prospect Kyle Manzardo is promoted, this is a team that's thin on thump. Ramírez led the club with 24 home runs a season ago, but he's not really a home run hitter. Josh Naylor—who homered 17 times in 452 at-bats a season ago—is the only other player on the roster who is projected to homer more than 20 times this season.
The starting rotation could be a strength, but it's not without questions. Former AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber is entering a contract year, and injuries have limited him in two of the last three seasons.
While Tanner Bibee had a breakout campaign over 142 innings a season ago, 2023 was essentially a lost campaign for Triston McKenzie, who was limited to four starts by injuries to his pitching elbow and right teres major.
For so many years, Cleveland got away with not spending money because of great player development and the presence of a future Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona. But the Guardians seem like a team in transition, one without enough offense to truly contend.
Colorado Rockies: 56-106
DraftKings Over/Under: 60.5
Every year there are five or six teams, give or take, that are just participating, with ownership not making any real effort to compete. Dick Monfort's Colorado Rockies are almost always in that group, and 2024 doesn't project to be any different.
When you play 81 games a season at Coors Field, your team is going to hit. Nolan Jones is one of the most exciting young hitters in the sport, and if veterans Ryan McMahon, Kris Bryant and Charlie Blackmon are productive, the Rockies will score some runs in 2024.
But when you play 81 games a season at Coors Field, your team is probably going to struggle with pitching. That means you have to hand out hazard pay to attract potential free agents, something Monfort seemingly is unwilling to do.
And so, Kyle Freeland—who is 27-47 with a 4.96 ERA in five seasons since he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting—will be Colorado's Opening Day starter. And it only gets worse after him, with all five Rockies starters projected to finish the season with ERAs above 5.00.
Since last making the playoffs in 2018, the Rockies have had five consecutive losing seasons. There's no reason to believe 2024 won't be the sixth.
Detroit Tigers: 83-79
DraftKings Over/Under: 80.5
Tarik Skubal was arguably the best pitcher in the second half a season ago, going 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 3.3 WAR across 80.1 innings pitched. When you consider the velocity uptick that he saw in Grapefruit League play, Skubal could be a legitimate superstar in 2024 if he's able to stay healthy.
That would be a welcome development for a Detroit Tigers team that has a lot of good players but comes up short in the star power department. Now, the young trio of Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene has star potential, but they haven't yet reached that level.
Javier Báez once was a star, but he's a shell of his former self. When Detroit had a chance this past offseason to add to its lineup, it acquired Mark Canha and Gio Urshela, two solid players, but not stars.
Behind Skubal, there are questions in the starting rotation. Since finishing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2019, Jack Flaherty has a 4.42 ERA and 4.36 FIP. Detroit gambled on Flaherty and Kenta Maeda in free agency, giving the duo a combined $28 million for 2024.
Particularly in a weak AL Central, this could be the year that the Tigers post their first winning record since 2016. But they need more star power—whether it comes from internal improvements, external additions or some combination—before they can return to the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
Houston Astros: 92-70
DraftKings Over/Under: 93.5
The Houston Astros are still tippin', having reached at least the ALCS in seven consecutive years, capturing three AL pennants and two World Series titles during the franchise's golden era. Joe Espada, who has been on Houston's staff since 2018, will succeed Dusty Baker as manager, and the show will probably go on for the Astros for another year.
Yordan Álvarez is one of the most imposing sluggers in the sport. Jose Altuve continues to climb the list of the greatest second basemen in MLB history.
Alex Bregman is motivated to perform in a contract year. Chas McCormick and Kyle Tucker form one of the best corner outfield duos in baseball.
Yainer Diaz looked the part of one of the best hitting catchers in baseball a year ago and should get more runway to improve as a defender with Martín Maldonado no longer on the team.
There are certainly questions about the starting rotation beyond Framber Valdez, with Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. all set to open the season on the injured list.
But Houston added arguably the top closer in baseball this offseason in the form of Josh Hader. He, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu form the top reliever trio in the league and should help the Astros reach the postseason—and perhaps, the ALCS—for the eighth year in a row.
Kansas City Royals: 71-91
DraftKings Over/Under: 74.5
Kansas City Royals fans who have their sights set on a playoff berth after an active offseason will be disappointed to see a projected record 20 games under .500. But this would represent a 15-win improvement for a team that won just 56 games a year ago. That feels appropriate for the Royals, who are definitely improved but still have a ways to go.
If the version of Cole Ragans that posted a 2.64 ERA and 2.49 FIP over 12 starts after being acquired in the midseason trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers proves to be the real thing, the Royals have a legitimate ace on their hands.
General manager J.J. Picollo did a strong job of adding rotation depth behind Ragans this winter, signing a pair of former Padres in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a star, if not a superstar. And it's great for the sport that he'll remain in Kansas City, signing an 11-year, $288 million extension in the offseason. But the Royals needed to make an impact addition or two to their lineup, and instead settled for journeyman Hunter Renfroe.
There's something to be said for adding a quantity of veterans in free agency, particularly when you are coming off a 101-loss season. But the Royals needed to add more impact players than they did to push themselves back into the postseason picture.
Los Angeles Angels: 66-96
DraftKings Over/Under: 72.5
Shohei Ohtani had one of the greatest seasons in MLB history in 2023, hitting 44 home runs and posting a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts en route to winning his second AL MVP.
Despite this, the Los Angeles Angels went 73-89. So after losing their best hitter and best pitcher, why are we to believe that the Halos won't be among the worst teams in baseball this season?
Mike Trout continues to be loyal to the Angels, probably to a fault. He's still a tremendous player when he's on the field, as he has a .962 OPS over the last three seasons. But since the start of the 2021 season, the three-time AL MVP has played in just 237 of a possible 486 games.
Whether he's ready to admit it or not, the Angels missed their best chance to win with him during his peak. And perhaps they never even had much of a chance, thanks to an inability to get much of anything right outside Trout and Ohtani. And that's why Ohtani is gone.
Ron Washington is an excellent baseball man and was long overdue for getting another managerial opportunity. But there's only so much he can do, as he's inherited one of the worst rosters in baseball.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 103-59
DraftKings Over/Under: 103.5
There are questions about the pitching depth that the Los Angeles Dodgers have—both in the starting rotation and bullpen—particularly when they'll be without Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May to open the season. Shohei Ohtani and Tony Gonsolin won't pitch at all in 2024 as they rebound from Tommy John surgery.
But Ohtani, the reigning AL MVP, has joined the Dodgers lineup, giving them an incredible Big Three of future Hall of Famers along with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
The trio of Ohtani, Betts and Freeman almost makes you forget about the depth of manager Dave Roberts' lineup. Will Smith is one of the five best catchers in baseball. Teoscar Hernández is a two-time Silver Slugger Award winner. James Outman hit 23 home runs and posted a 4.4 WAR in a breakout campaign a season ago.
With what could be one of the greatest lineups in MLB history and some star pitching reinforcements looming, the Dodgers should win the most games in baseball this season. No one has higher World Series aspirations than them in 2024.
Miami Marlins: 70-92
DraftKings Over/Under: 78.5
If you're looking for a 2023 playoff team to fade in 2024, the Miami Marlins are probably a pretty good bet.
The organization's greatest strength is pitching. Or at least, it was pitching. Former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcántara will miss the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Additionally, it appears that Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera will also open the 2024 campaign on the injured list.
A year ago, the Marlins won 84 games and claimed a wild-card spot despite finishing 29th in runs scored with 666. Rather than getting to work improving their offense, Miami allowed Jorge Soler—who homered 36 times and posted an .853 OPS—to depart in free agency.
With Skip Schumaker at the helm, the future is probably bright in Miami, especially once its pitching gets healthy. But 2024 projects to be a lean year for the Fish.
Milwaukee Brewers: 73-89
This projected record would represent nearly 20 fewer wins than the Brewers had a year ago, when they captured the NL Central title with 92 victories. But when you consider what Milwaukee has lost, a pretty drastic dip in wins starts to make more sense.
Craig Counsell: In parts of nine seasons, Counsell had a .531 winning percentage. He departed this offseason for a larger deal with the division-rival Cubs and was replaced by longtime bench coach Pat Murphy.
Corbin Burnes: The former NL Cy Young Award winner—who logged nearly 400 innings pitched over the last two years—was traded to the Baltimore Orioles in February. Milwaukee wasn't expected to retain Burnes beyond the 2024 season, his contract year.
Brandon Woodruff: After being non-tendered early in the offseason, Woodruff is back on a two-year, $17.5 million deal. But there's a real chance he misses the entire season as he recovers from the shoulder surgery he underwent last October. The two-time All-Star leaves another large void in Milwaukee's rotation.
Devin Williams: Twice the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year, Williams will be out for three months as he recovers from two stress fractures in his back.
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Milwaukee did add slugger Rhys Hoskins in free agency, but if the Brewers are out of the playoffs this summer, he and Willy Adames could become among the trade candidates that general manager Matt Arnold gets calls on.
Minnesota Twins: 87-75
It was a blow to lose last year's AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray in free agency, but in a weak division, the Twins should have enough firepower to get back to the postseason.
Byron Buxton getting injured is inevitable, and Manuel Margot is a much less impressive insurance option than Michael A. Taylor was a season ago. But one would think Carlos Correa will be much better than he was a year ago when he posted just a .711 OPS. Minnesota also added veteran first baseman Carlos Santana to a lineup that includes Matt Wallner, Max Kepler, Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien.
Even without Gray, Minnesota could have a strong rotation, particularly if Chris Paddack remains healthy. Pablo López is one of the 15 best pitchers in baseball, while Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan are two of the more underrated starters in the junior circuit. Jhoan Duran will open the season on the injured list with an oblique strain, but he has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball over his first two seasons.
The Twins might be doomed to yet another early playoff exit, but they are the favorites to win a second straight AL Central title.
New York Mets: 79-83
A lineup that includes Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte and Francisco Álvarez should keep the Mets competitive.
But ultimately, this isn't a team with enough starting pitching to capture a playoff spot. It wasn't when Kodai Senga appeared on track to be the team's ace, and it certainly won't be with him out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. José Quintana has had a nice career, but in a division where the Phillies and Braves have at least two aces each, he's a pretty underwhelming Opening Day starter.
What will be interesting is whether new president of baseball operations David Stearns considers shopping Alonso this summer if the Mets aren't in playoff position.
Alonso has spoken of a desire to spend his entire career with the Mets, but as a Scott Boras client, he's almost certain to test free agency next winter. Are the Mets willing to gamble that they lose him for nothing more than draft compensation next offseason? Probably not if they aren't going to be a playoff team in 2024.
New York Yankees: 89-73
With the duo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto headlining their lineup, spring training should have been special for the Yankees.
Instead, an already-thin rotation lost reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole indefinitely, leaving questions about how Aaron Boone's squad will manage even in the best-case scenario where he returns some time this summer.
Judge and Soto are arguably two of the five best position players the sport has to offer, but it's fair to wonder what the Yankees will get from former All-Stars Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo.
The Yankees will probably be a playoff team, but one that's also pretty clearly inferior to the Orioles in the AL East. Anything can happen when you get into the playoffs, but the Yankees feel more like a team likely to have a first-round playoff exit in 2024 than return to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
Oakland Athletics: 60-102
DraftKings Over/Under: 57.5
With the Oakland A's entering the final season of their lease at the Oakland Coliseum, what happens on the field will almost be an afterthought in 2024.
More pressing is where will the team be a year from now? Can a deal be worked out for the A's to continue playing in the badly outdated Coliseum for a few more years before a long-term resolution is in place? Could the A's call a city like San Jose or even San Francisco home for a few years before moving to Las Vegas?
There are so many unanswered questions about the future of the A's, which, regardless of outcome, are extremely interesting to monitor.
On the field, the A's will be anything but interesting. Reliever Mason Miller is an exciting young player, but he's an anomaly on this team. Owner John Fisher has built such a bad roster and has done such a disservice to the sport that he doesn't deserve to continue to own the franchise, whether their future is in the Bay Area or elsewhere.
Philadelphia Phillies: 93-69
The Phillies have returned virtually the same team that lost to the Diamondbacks in Game 7 of the NLCS a year ago, betting that the third time will be the charm of the veteran-heavy team that's come up just short of winning a World Series title in each of the last two seasons.
With Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez, the Phillies return one of baseball's best starting rotations. The Phillies might not have an established closer, but their bullpen is pretty deep with the likes of José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto and Orion Kerkering. And while they will go into some cold spells, a lineup featuring Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto can slug with the best in the sport.
Even if Philadelphia isn't quite able to prevent the Braves from winning their seventh consecutive NL East title, the gap should be much closer than it was a year ago. And if the Phillies have to settle for the top wild-card spot for a second consecutive season, that's not a bad consolation prize.
Right or wrong, this season will be viewed as a failure if the Phillies aren't able to get over the hump and win the World Series. That's what happens when you keep knocking on the door.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 75-87
The Pirates are either going to be a frisky contender in 2024, or a team that playoff teams swarm over in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.
It's hard to put too much stock into spring training results, but Oneil Cruz hit home runs at a staggering tear in the Grapefruit League, a welcome sign after a left ankle fracture limited him to just nine games a season ago.
There's some good to be excited about with the Pirates. Cruz is part of a lineup that has a few pieces to really like in Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes. Pittsburgh's bullpen also has a chance to be solid, with Aroldis Chapman setting up for David Bednar, who's among the best closers in baseball.
But there are areas to be concerned about as well. The starting pitching depth after Mitch Keller is very underwhelming, with the ace their only starter projected to have an ERA below 4.44 this season. Rowdy Tellez—a poor defender who was non-tendered by the Brewers after a disappointing offensive season in 2023—was an underwhelming addition at first base. Former No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis posted a -1.0 WAR last season.
At their best, the Pirates will feel like a playoff team. But a fast start and then a fade, just like what happened a year ago, would hardly be a surprising outcome in 2024.
San Diego Padres: 82-80
On the surface, you look at some of the names the Padres employ and feel like they should be a really good team. But then you remember they won just 82 games a year ago and lost Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Blake Snell—at least two of whom are on track for the Hall of Fame—and it's hard to project a massive improvement in 2024.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim is quite the Big Four to have in your lineup, but you can begin to poke holes in the rest of San Diego's lineup. Jake Cronenworth's offensive profile is a lot less impressive at first base than it was at second. With Machado at DH to open the season as he recovers from right elbow surgery last October, Tyler Wade is the team's starting third baseman right now. There's also a ton of faith being put in top prospect Jackson Merrill to be able to both make it defensively in center field and consistently hit MLB pitching.
In terms of pitching, there's a lot of the same top-heavy themes as with the lineup. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease, in whatever order, are a nice top three. But the Padres lost Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo in free agency. Robert Suarez and Yuki Matsui might prove to be a strong pairing at the back end of new manager Mike Shildt's bullpen, but even if Hader didn't like to pitch more than one inning, it's hard to make up for the loss of arguably the best reliever in baseball.
There's a ton of star power in San Diego that will make the Padres a draw whenever they are featured on a national telecast. But it's fair to be skeptical of whether they have enough depth to be a postseason team in 2024.
San Francisco Giants: 84-78
Even if the decision to sign Jordan Hicks to be a starting pitcher feels a bit questionable, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi had a strong offseason when he needed to, waiting out Scott Boras and signing both Blake Snell and Matt Chapman to significantly smaller deals than either expected to get at the outset of the offseason.
In addition to adding Chapman's elite defense and 25-home run power, San Francisco also added some much-needed thump to the lineup in the form of 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler. After an All-Star campaign that saw him crush 36 home runs with the Marlins a season ago, Soler signed a very fair three-year, $42 million deal to join the Giants.
It's fair to question the depth of San Francisco's starting rotation—it kind of depends on Hicks working as a starter and 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray making an impact this summer, but Logan Webb and Snell are one of the best one-two punches in the sport today. The Giants also have a bullpen anchored by Camilo Doval, who could benefit from a slightly smaller workload in 2024 after pitching in 69 games a season ago.
Bob Melvin wasn't able to steady the ship with the Padres in 2023, but he had the team in the NLCS the prior year and has previously won Manager of the Year when he led both the Diamondbacks and Athletics. He's a good manager and should help to keep the Giants in contention this season.
St. Louis Cardinals: 85-77
In 2002, the Giants won the NL pennant behind a lineup that featured just one regular—29-year-old third baseman David Bell—who was under 30 years old. Barry Bonds (37), Jeff Kent (34), Benito Santiago (37) and Reggie Sanders (34) were at the forefront of Dusty Baker's lineup. For good measure, the Giants acquired 35-year-old Kenny Lofton at the trade deadline.
22 years later, the Cardinals are hoping to rebound from a disappointing 71-91 record a year ago with a somewhat similar formula. When it came time to overhaul their starting rotation this offseason, they signed 34-year-old Sonny Gray, 36-year-old Kyle Gibson and 36-year-old Lance Lynn. To supplement their bench, St. Louis signed 37-year-old Brandon Crawford and reunited with 38-year-old Matt Carpenter.
Mind you, this is a team built around two likely future Hall of Famers who aren't spring chicken themselves—36-year-old Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who will turn 33 in mid-April.
Can the Cardinals make one more run with this group? Perhaps. But if things fall flat for the second consecutive season, St. Louis will have to consider retooling.
Seattle Mariners: 85-77
With the offseason departures of Eugenio Suárez and Teoscar Hernández, the 2024 Mariners figure to strike out less than they did in 2023. But they lost two players who were in the lineup pretty much every day—Suárez actually played in all 162 games a season ago—and combined for 48 home runs and 189 RBI in 2023.
Julio Rodríguez is one of the 10 best position players in baseball, if not better. But it doesn't feel like the lineup around J-Rod, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford has gotten better this season with Suárez and Hernández exiting, and two players with lengthy injury histories—Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver—joining Scott Servais' lineup.
The saving grace for the Mariners is that they have one of the best starting rotations in baseball, led by the trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Castillo is going to make his fourth career Opening Day start in 2024, while Kirby was an All-Star last season and Gilbert logged 190.2 innings in 2023.
Seattle figures to be in the playoff mix in 2024, both in terms of the AL West and AL wild-card races. Whether they have enough offense to ultimately claim a playoff spot remains to be seen.
Texas Rangers: 87-75
With a full season of Evan Carter and star rookie Wyatt Langford, the Texas lineup might be even better than it was a year ago, when the Rangers captured the franchise's first World Series title.
Even if Marcus Semien's strange trend of not being quite as effective in even years continues, he, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Carter and Langford should create a top-five lineup.
But it's fair to be concerned about the team's pitching. World Series hero Jordan Montgomery remains a free agent. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle won't be in play until at least the summer. And Opening Day starter Nathan Eovaldi has a pretty lengthy injury history, which could leave the Rangers in dire straits if he doesn't make 30-plus starts this season.
Is there a scenario where manager Bruce Bochy's squad edges out the Astros and Mariners to win the AL West? Sure. But is there also one where they are a great hitting team without enough pitching to win more than 84-86 games? Yep.
Tampa Bay Rays: 85-77
Randy Arozarena may be the only household name in the Rays lineup, but Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe, José Siri, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are part of what should be a pretty productive offense for manager Kevin Cash.
The biggest question for the Rays is probably whether they have enough pitching to compete with the Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL East.
Two-time All-Star Shane McClanahan will miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery in April 2023) and Drew Rasmussen (internal brace procedure on elbow in July 2023) are going to open the season on the 60-day injured list as well. Taj Bradley (strained pectoral) will also be out to begin the season.
If healthy, the Rays are probably a 90-plus-win team. But while it's perhaps foolish to believe this organization won't be able to patch things up behind Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale until reinforcements come, so many injuries to their starting pitching might doom the Rays in a year where two or three games might decide whether they make the postseason.
Toronto Blue Jays: 88-74
The Blue Jays have averaged 91 wins over the last three seasons but have been swept in the best-of-three ALWCS in consecutive years. So this offseason, they tried to put the team over the top by signing two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. On one hand, it's impressive they seemingly came in second place to the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the other hand, it doesn't matter—Ohtani isn't a Blue Jay.
General manager Ross Atkins also seemingly misread the market for third baseman Matt Chapman. He signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner for a combined $21 million. Chapman's market didn't develop as he and agent Scott Boras hoped, and the four-time Gold Glove Award winner settled for a three-year, $54 million deal with the Giants that will pay him $16 million this season. Unlike the Giants, the Blue Jays wouldn't have had to surrender draft compensation to sign Chapman, because even though he declined a qualifying offer, it came from Toronto.
In any event, IKF and Turner join a deep lineup that includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk. Would the Blue Jays have been a better lineup if they had retained Chapman? Yes, but they still project to be one of the better ones in the AL this upcoming season.
Additionally, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi give Toronto the type of pitching staff that should be able to thrive both in short and long playoff series. Perhaps this will be the year that comes to fruition.
Washington Nationals: 69-93
The Nationals aren't going to contend in 2024, but there's perhaps some light at the end of the tunnel.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery last March, 2020 first-round pick Cade Cavalli should join a starting rotation at some point in 2024 that includes Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore. This will also be the final year of Patrick Corbin's six-year, $140 million deal, which has turned into an albatross since he helped the Nationals to win a World Series in 2019.
The lineup is further behind but could look quite a bit better at the end of 2024 if C.J. Abrams and Keibert Ruiz improve defensively this season. They also have three of MLB Pipeline's top 50 prospects in outfielder Dylan Crews (No. 7), outfielder James Wood (No. 14) and third baseman Brady House, all of whom could make their major league debut this upcoming season.
It feels like a lifetime ago, but it's only been five seasons since the Nationals won the World Series with a $161 million payroll, the sixth-highest in the sport. Currently, the Nationals are projected to have the No. 24 payroll in baseball this year at $90 million. If the Lerner family— who now say they won't sell the team—ramp up spending again, the Nationals could be a contender again in a few years.
Final NL Standings
NL East
- Braves: 98-64 (X)
- Phillies: 93-69 (Z)
- Mets: 79-83
- Marlins: 70-92
- Nationals: 69-93
NL Central
- Reds: 87-75 (X)
- Cardinals: 85-77 (Z)
- Cubs: 84-78
- Pirates: 75-87
- Brewers: 73-89
NL West
- Dodgers: 103-59 (X)
- Diamondbacks: 89-73 (Z)
- Giants: 84-78
- Padres: 82-80
- Rockies: 56-106
X = Division winner
Z = Wild Card winner
Final AL Standings
AL East
- Orioles: 97-65 (X)
- Yankees: 89-73 (Z)
- Blue Jays: 88-74 (Z)
- Rays: 85-77
- Red Sox: 73-89
AL Central
- Twins: 87-75 (X)
- Tigers: 83-79
- Guardians: 79-83
- Royals: 71-91
- White Sox: 66-96
AL West
- Astros: 92-70 (X)
- Rangers: 87-75 (Z)
- Mariners: 85-77
- Angels: 66-96
- A's: 55-107
X = Division winner
Z= Wild Card winner
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